Podcast: Does Airbus Deserve A B+ Or A C-?

Airframers' 2025 delivery totals are in. Aviation Week’s team grades Airbus, Boeing and the smaller OEMs on their production performance last year.

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Joe Anselmo: Welcome to the Check 6 podcast. I'm Joe Anselmo, Aviation Week's editorial director. And today we're here to talk about deliveries specifically. Airbus and Boeing have reported their 2025 deliveries. And so rather than give you a long introduction to help us go over the numbers and then parse it all out, we have the numbers guy, Dan Williams. From Aviation Week, we also have Jens Flottau and Sean Broderick, two of our editors in commercial aviation. So Numbers guy, I'll let you steal my thunder. Give us the numbers.

Dan Williams: Numbers. Okay. Thank you very much. And happy new year as we're kicking off. So well, let's talk Airbus and let's talk Boeing. Like you said, that's what everybody's really talking about right now. Airbus had a good year. Not a great year. I'm not going to lie. They started the year. Airbus made a commitment of 820 deliveries in 2025. As we were going through the year, quite a lot of noise about, they're not going to make it, they're not going to make it. They came out beginning December, said, "We're not going to make it. We're going to make that number 790." And the numbers are in. Airbus delivered 793. So they beat their previous lowered expectation, but obviously they were still 27 shy of their goal from the start of the year. Now, there's many reasons and no doubt we'll go into those during this podcast as to why they missed the goal.

But overall, it wasn't a bad year. They also gleaned a thousand orders, which again is incredible. And when you look, they delivered 793, they took a thousand orders, they took more orders than they delivered. So that's good for their backlog. They finished the year in terms of gross orders with more than they started with. So that's really good. And if I was to do a school report card, because sometimes we like to do these things, I'd say that probably Airbus probably got a reasonably solid B-plus. They didn't make their numbers. They weren't far off the numbers. Their effort was pretty good, but just like mine, when I was a child, they must try a little bit harder. Boeing, on the other hand, Boeing, numbers weren't quite as massive, but that's come no expectation. Boeing started the year with actually no guidance in terms of deliveries.

So everybody was kind of in the dark as what numbers were going to come out. They ended the year with 600 deliveries, which is no mean feat. It's only 193 behind Airbus. But for Boeing, they had a good year and they got plenty of orders. Again, they had a higher order book actually than Airbus did. So that's a real bonus to Boeing and also possibly testament to the big backlog that Airbus has. So if I'm going to grade them and give them a report card, they'd probably get an A-minus because they really put some effort in. They really showed some gumption, I suppose you could say in this year to get aircraft out of the door. So reasonably good years for both. However, one's an A-minus and one's a B-plus. There's a slight difference between the two.

Joe Anselmo: Okay. Jens, you heard Dan, a B-plus for Airbus and an A-minus for Boeing. How does that sit with you as a school master?

Jens Flottau: I would agree on the Boeing side. The kind of growth rates that they have achieved this year versus 2024, that's impressive given where they've come from. Airbus can only dream of that kind of growth percentage-wise. So with all due respect then on the Airbus side, I do not agree with you. I guess my grade would be, well, if I'm nice, a C or something, C-minus or something. And that's because if you dig a little deeper into the Airbus figures, you're really discovering some staggering, some interesting details. So they delivered 27 more aircraft than in 2024, which is not great growth. They were going to deliver 54 more. So they achieved about pretty much half the growth that they wanted to. But if you look at where they achieved it, almost the entire growth that Airbus realized last year was on the A220.

So 27 more aircraft of those 27, 17 were A220s. There were five more A320 NEOs, five more. Come on, guys. You want to go to 75 a month. You're at, I don't know, 50 right now, something like that. They're not disclosing that number. There are four more A330 NEOs. Okay. Wide-body's more difficult, but not great growth. And they delivered exactly the same number of A350s in 2025 than they did in 2024. So is that good performance? I don't think so. Yes, there are reasons. We know the panel issue that came in late last year, which kind of stole their deliveries. I get it. That's unforeseen and only partly to put blame on Airbus. There's the Spirit issue that obviously impacted any growth on the A350 side. Interestingly, they still managed to put out a lot more A220s, which is also heavily reliant on Spirit sites.

But overall, I'm not impressed. And I think if Airbus executives are honest, they're not impressed either.

Joe Anselmo: Okay. Sean Broderick, we have a B-plus and a C-minus for Airbus. They're both in agreement on an A-minus for Boeing. Where do you come in on all this?

Sean Broderick: I mean, I agree with Jens and Dan. You have to look at Boeing in its own sort of vacuum. Comparing them to Airbus at this point, it's at least two different fruits, if not completely two different parts of the food chain, if you will. I mean, Boeing got back to 600 deliveries, exactly 600 deliveries last year. So that gets them back to where they were in 2012, when they set a record when I think it was 601 deliveries. That started a run of seven straight years of more than 600 deliveries. And they got into the 800s by the end of that in 2018. After that is when things headed south literally and well, certainly figuratively for Boeing. The two MAX crashes and one in late 2018, one in 2019, that undercut production and halted deliveries on their most popular airplane, the airplane they make the most.

So right there, their delivery numbers went down and the production numbers went down. 787 was right behind them. That's the airplane they make the second most of. So they went from low double digits in production down into the ones as early as early 2023, they were producing less than one, less than two airplanes per month. This was all about fixing the problems that we have talked about on this podcast numerous times, safety, quality problems. Getting back to 600, or it shows it's moving in the right direction. I mean, two years ago, they were in the 500s and there's 2023 when they snuck it in between the first set of 737 MAX issues that had to do with MCAS and everything related to that and the grounding. And then the second set of 737 MAX issues, which were really company-wide safety and quality issues triggered by the Alaska 737-9 door blowout in January 2024.

So 2023 was quasi-normal. 2024 took a major step back. So now for Boeing, it's all about getting back to not only the previous numbers, the pre-pandemic numbers really for them pre-737 MAX grounding numbers, but getting back to a cadence that puts their production and their deliveries on similar tracks, which is what a well-functioning airframe production company, where they ought to be. The 2023 numbers were skewed a little bit because while the deliveries bounced back, a lot of it was from the inventory that had built up during both the 787 and 737 MAX issues. They had a whole bunch of airplanes, more than 100 787s and almost 460, 737 MAXes that they built, put into storage, were able to pull back out and pad their deliveries, if you will. Great for the cash flow, but it didn't necessarily reflect how well the company was functioning. What you're getting to now is you're a lot closer to make an airplane, test fly the airplane, deliver the airplane, especially on the 787 and the 737.

Not the 737-10, not the 737-7 and not the 777-9, of course, because they're not certified, but on the dash-8 and the dash-9s on the 737 and on the 787, much closer to producing it on the 787, eight per month, nine per month, 10 per month is where they're heading. 737 is getting into the 40s now on its way to 50. When all this happened in 2019, they were on their way to 56. So Boeing's moving in the right direction. I think you got to give them ... I think A is fine considering where they've been, but it's going to be interesting to watch them because the problems that Airbus is having on the supply chain side, Boeing is just going to really start to get into those now this year because all the buffer they've built up on those two major programs is going to be going away here soon.

So I think the comps, to steal a Wall Street term, their comp is going to be really tough for 2026 because they did so well in 2025, getting to that next level is really going to be, it's going to be less a function of how well they're performing and more a function of how the supply chains perform.

Joe Anselmo: Dan, we are talking about a defined period of time, 2025 and all this analysis now, but I want to go a little broader. I mean, this used to be roughly a 50-50 market between Airbus and Boeing. It has not been since 2019, 2020. You do a 10-year forecast, you look at all the orders, you sort of game it out. Does Boeing have any hope of making it 50-50 again, or are we in a permanent shift advantage Airbus? It's a great question.

Dan Williams: The short answer is, as it stands today, no. The shift's going to continue in part because it goes back to what Sean said and what Jens was saying. Airbus have got these lofty goals of rate 75 for the A320 family. They want rate 90 for the narrow-bodies when you include the A220. Rate 75, and we have said this for a long time, I'm not going to lie. Rate 75, will Airbus get there? Yes. Will they get there in the timeframe that they think? No. Hell, double hockey sticks, no. Maybe by the end of 2020s, maybe early 2030s, maybe they'll get to rate 75 because the supply chain is still broken and it's different things at different times are still broken. It's be it parts, be it people, be it supply of USM, so secondhand material. There's still too many bottlenecks across the whole system for Airbus to get to rate 75.

So likewise, Boeing are going to have the same issues. Yes, they're growing. Another caveat to what Sean said, don't forget, in the start of 2025, we were just coming out of one of the longest strikes that Boeing had had in late 2024. It was a 50-odd day strike. We had many a podcast about it. We made bets. I luckily bet on the right side of it and I thought it was going to be longer. And then also Boeing took a moment, took a pause after the strike ended to retrain, rework with their workforce before they restarted the production again of the 737, just an example. 737 production didn't start till December 6th, I don't think. So they were still ramping up their rates for the MAXes. So if nothing else changes for 2026, they should deliver more MAXes. In fact, that should not change. So I expect that Boeing should surpass 2025 just purely because of that, if nothing else.

However, they're going to suffer from these pitfalls, these hurdles that everybody else is suffering from, be you a final assembly line, be you an MRO, whoever you are, there are still constraints in the supply system. It is getting better, but different parts are getting better at different speeds. And that doesn't mean to say that the week after, go back to what Jens says, the panel issue on the A320s, on the new builds, ultimately that's a supply chain issue because it's not being checked and things that you didn't think were broken all of a sudden are broken. So we are going to see progression. Airbus is still going to be the biggest dog in the room now in terms of your pure delivery numbers. In terms of narrow-body, even the margin's going to be even bigger. However, wide-body is the other way around. Boeing is still the big dog in the room when it comes to wide-bodies.

Boeing delivered almost double the number of wide-bodies, not quite double them. It's for dramatic effect. Now Airbus delivered just a handful of wide-bodies more last year compared to 2024, a handful. And obviously the biggest news, I think possibly of 2025 so far, the Delta order that's just come out this week, that's a huge shift in my personal opinion. So Boeing still, they've got an excellent wide-body production line and they've got the 777X to come that is the natural successor to the 777-300 and the A380 ultimately in some kind of ways. So will there be parity? No. Will it be tilted heavily towards Airbus? Not heavily, but yes, there will be a slight thumb on the scale towards Airbus. Now that's assuming nothing else changes. Nobody else enters the market with some new innovative products or this, that, and the other. However, the reality is over the coming 10-year horizon, the chances of that happening are somewhere between slim and none.

So it will be Airbus-dominant over the coming decade.

Jens Flottau: But what Dan mentioned on the wide-body market is going to trigger some strategic reviews on the Airbus side because yes, they are dominating in the narrow-body market. That's great, but they're not dominating, to say the least, on the wide-body market. And that raises some questions. A, it raises the question, do they need to produce more? Do they have to go beyond the rates on the A350 that are planned from now through 2028? Do they have to do more A330 NEOs? And also in terms of variants, do they need to do more? Do they have to build the bigger A350 that they have been thinking about for a long time and that they haven't really formally launched yet? I think there's a lot of planning going on behind the scenes right now. We don't know much about it, but I wouldn't be surprised if we learn about substantial news throughout the year.

Joe Anselmo: Jens, Dan mentioned what he said was the biggest news of the year, but then he didn't tell our listeners or viewers what it is. He just said the Delta order. What's he talking about there, the Delta order?

Jens Flottau: Well, Delta has ordered Airbuses for the past 20 years and hasn't ... I think the last Boeing order was in 2008, some 777s, but now they've decided to buy 787-10s, probably to replace 767-400s and first generation A330s. So that's a big win for Boeing and a big loss for Airbus, given that it will affect A330 replacements, which could have been A330 NEOs as well, given the mission capabilities of the Dash-10 and the NEO. So a big deal, really a big deal.

Joe Anselmo: So Dan, we wanted to talk about the other airframers. So Embraer, ATR, COMAC, you've also graded them. So why don't you share your grades for each of them? Because right now we have an A-minus for Boeing and a B-plus for Airbus. Or

Dan Williams: C-minus or somewhere in between. Yeah. So Embraer. Embraer had a good year now an outstanding year in a similar way to Airbus, right? Did they deliver more aircraft in 2025 than 2024? Yes. However, it's the makeup of those aircraft. I'm not saying it's necessarily troubling. The bulk of their aircraft deliveries was the Embraer 175, which is a wonderful aircraft. And it's a wonderful aircraft because it is the only scope clause-compliant jet that is in production today. So therefore, all the American feeder networks have to buy that. It's a market of one. If you want to replace a CRJ-200, 500 or 700, you have a choice of one aircraft. You want to replace an Embraer 170, 175, you have a choice of one aircraft. So that's great for Embraer because that's been a stalwart for them, but their E2. Jens, as we talked about this many times, the E2's doing okay, and that's if I'm generous, bit me.

Jens Flottau: It's been a little better last year in terms of orders. Some significant orders, LATAM, SAS. I mean, not the kind of numbers you were used to in the mainline market, of course, but for the regional market, not bad.

Dan Williams: They had a book-to-bill on the E2 of 3.5. So in terms of great order book, but they just didn't deliver any. And it's not necessarily it's a massive order book. They just didn't deliver many aircraft. So I give them a B. Again, could try harder. They're plowing their own furrow. And so everybody's keen for them to move into the bigger single-aisle. Personally, I don't see why they should. They have a nice little niche. Let's look after that market. It's a market of one. Look after your existing customers and you'll do well. I'll be brief with the other two. ATR, I'm going to give them a C if I'm generous, maybe a C-minus. Deliveries went down. They went from 34 to 26. Now, ATR are very difficult to get information out of in parts because they're a private company, so they don't have to report all their orders.

They don't have the outstanding order books like Boeing like Airbus. So sometimes some of their information is a little bit clandestine. They did okay again, but again, they're a market of one. There's no de Havilland Dash-8 anymore. So if you want a 40 or 70-seat turboprop aircraft, you've got the ATR that is Western-built. Yeah, you could go to China possibly or whatever. And then COMAC, speaking of China, I'm going to give them ... I think if I'm generous, I give them a D. We saw the start of the year, and I got many questions on this. They were going to deliver, was it 75 C919s in 2025? Ooh, bearing in mind, the year before they delivered 12. And it turns out they delivered a whopping 15 C919s in 2025, so somewhat underwhelming to say the least. They did, to their credit, drop their guidance halfway through the year from massive 75 to 25, but still couldn't hit that target.

And the ARJ21 or C909 is the marketing name. Their deliveries were down as well. They went from 37 in 2024 down to 24. Again, it's a tricky aircraft because it doesn't really sell outside of China except for China-friendly countries. And even some operators who took some on lease handed them back because they didn't particularly like them. So it's tough going there. The C919 we see as a quasi-MAX replacement in China due to geopolitical reasons and becoming second fiddle aircraft to the A320 in and around China. And it very much looks that's the case.

Joe Anselmo: Okay. And on the 175, I didn't hear if you gave orders. Embraer's deliveries ticked up a bit last year, right?

Dan Williams: They ticked up from, they went from 73 to 78 overall. So an extra handful over the course of the year, but again, it's still not great. The 175 order book is reasonably healthy, 193, and they delivered 34 of those last year. That's over five years worth of backlog at last year's rates. So that's reasonably healthy. And it's the second most that they have. The 195-E2 has got 230-odd orders, but when you're only delivering 38 a year, six years worth of backlog, it's ...

Joe Anselmo: Jens, we talked about Embraer. Everybody's been wondering what's the next shoe to drop? Where does the company go from here? There's a J.P. Morgan report out this week, a research note issued saying that Embraer is in a deal, at least tentatively, to build aircraft in India. Do you want to tell us a little bit about that? I mean, it's not new the idea, but the fact that there's a Wall Street note out now saying this is going to happen is interesting.

Jens Flottau: Yeah, it is interesting. It's not totally new. I mean, people have been thinking and talking about it for some time. If you look at the Embraer strategy and the kind of growth markets that they have identified, for the E2, it's largely Asia right now, and in particular India, where they are hoping that Air India and IndiGo will decide to develop second-tier networks. I can see why they think that, that is a great opportunity in a big market, given there's so many airports that are being opened to civil service, commercial service. I have a hard time imagining that this is going to happen very fast, just because Air India and IndiGo are incredibly busy just doing what they do now, developing their mainline fleets, sorting through all the kinds of operational challenges that they have to go through right now in IndiGo in particular. So I would be very surprised if this is going to happen quickly.

Nonetheless, Embraer has always said that they're open to the idea of opening a final assembly line in India if the numbers are right and the numbers meaning orders. The question to me is, when will Air India, IndiGo, and some of the other carriers be ready to place orders?

Joe Anselmo: And we're running short on time, but I wanted to come full circle with Sean and talk a little bit about Boeing. Boeing, Sean, it certainly seems like it's entering 2026 with the wind at its back, but they still have some big certification issues they have to get through this year, right?

Sean Broderick: Absolutely. And these, again, not new to this podcast or this audience. The three outstanding programs, of course, 777-9, which is, I've lost count of how many years late. Now somebody help me say- Seven. Six years late. Seven years late. Okay. Certification second half of this year seems promising, but it's hardly a sure bet. Boeing has pushed first deliveries into 2027. So that would suggest certification sometime between third quarter 2026 and mid-2027. They could still make deliveries in 2027 or late 2027, somewhere in there. 737-7 and -10 are in a similar boat. Dash-7 is much closer. Certification, these are guesses. For Boeing is confident that they're going to get the Dash-7 in 2026.

They're less confident, but still confident on the Dash-10. The one place where I would diverge from their confidence is on the Dash-10. I think that one's a little trickier certification because of the changes, not just in the original design with the landing gear and a few other things, but in equipment features being added to that airplane as a result of the 737 MAX issues, that certification's going to be a little trickier. This year, certainly plausible, wouldn't shock me if it slid into next year. Once they get those three done, it's going to open up an inventory of some 700-odd aircraft that they have in one of those three variants that built and sitting around waiting for delivery. More importantly, it's going to clear the way for those airplanes to start rolling off the line and into customers' hands, which is all good news for Boeing, which of course they need when you start comparing them to Airbus.

And I'll close with this. So we're taping this masterpiece on my birthday, and I'll tell you how old I am. I am old enough to remember when the idea of Airbus challenging Boeing for market share, let alone taking a dominant position, was absolutely nuts. Now, I don't think I'm young enough to be around when somebody comes back and challenges Airbus, Boeing or perhaps somebody else. I'm not sure I am young enough to see that, but I think somebody listening to this podcast probably is. So I'd be very careful in looking at sort of where things are and assuming that's where they're going to be.

Joe Anselmo: Guys, I can't think of a better way to end this podcast than on Sean's note. I don't think anyone can top that. Thank you, Sean. Thank you, Dan. Thank you, Jens, for your insights. As always, that is a wrap for today's episode of Check 6. We recorded two Check 6s this week, so if you want to go back and look, we had a defense-related podcast earlier this week, Donald Trump versus the defense industry. And if you have time to listen to yet another podcast, check out this week's episode of Windows Seat, Aviation Week's Air Transport Podcast, which dives into the merger between Allegiant and Sun Country announced last weekend. But that is all the time we have for now. Thank you viewers and listeners for your time and have a great week.