What To Watch For In Aerospace And Defense In 2025

With President-elect Donald Trump confidant Elon Musk declaring crewed fighters obsolete, a defense review in the UK and elections in Europe, next-generation combat aircraft programs on both sides of the Atlantic face key decisions in 2025, including the planned award of development contracts by the U.S. Air Force and Navy as well as a UK-Italian-Japanese alliance.

The top rung of private aviation will fill out in 2025 with planned certification of the competing Bombardier Global 8000 and Gulfstream G800 high-speed, ultra-long--range business jets and Dassault’s rival flagship Falcon 10X entering flight testing. The big question: Will Bombardier’s secret Challenger replacement break cover?

Boeing faces a pivotal year. New CEO Kelly Ortberg is focused on stabilizing the company, slimming its workforce and stemming its losses; rebuilding 737 and 787 production; finally certifying the 737-7 and -10 and possibly the 777-9; completing the reacquisition of Spirit AeroSystems and—above all—transforming Boeing’s safety culture.

Five years after a two-seat trainer became the first battery-powered aircraft to receive type certification, Sweden’s Heart Aerospace plans to flight-test the X1 full-scale demonstrator for its 30-seat hybrid-electric ES-30 regional airliner from Plattsburgh International Airport, New York, as fragile progress in electric aviation continues.

FAA type certification of one or more electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing air taxis looks unlikely in 2025, but rivals Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation continue to hold out hope of being able to launch commercial operations by the end of 2025 in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, respectively, ahead of certification in the U.S.

After years of talk about ending reliance on expensive and increasingly vulnerable large satellites, the U.S. Space Development Agency is preparing for the operational debut of a proliferated space architecture, with the launch of 154 tactical communications and missile-tracking satellites into low Earth orbit expected to begin in early 2025.

SpaceX plans to take another giant leap with its first space-to-space propellant transfer in 2025. Crucial to the planned use of the Starship to land astronauts on the Moon with NASA’s Artemis II mission in 2026, the demonstration will involve docking two Starship upper stages in orbit and pumping fuel between them.

The U.S. is on track to produce more than 3 billion gal. of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) a year by 2030, exceeding its SAF Grand Challenge goal. That could change, unless bipartisan support in Congress protects SAF from a Trump administration targeting clean-energy incentives enacted under the Biden administration.

While Anduril Industries and General Atomics prepare to fly prototypes in 2025 under Increment 1 of the Collaborative Combat Aircraft program, the U.S. Air Force is developing requirements for Increment 2. Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman are marshaling resources to compete again, hoping for better results.