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Routes Europe 2026 attendees included airline executives, airport leaders and industry groups.
The cost of fuel, mounting regulatory pressure and the gradual erosion of regional connectivity are pushing Europe’s aviation industry into a more defensive era of network planning.
These were recurring themes throughout Routes Europe, held in May in Rimini, Italy, where airline executives, airport leaders and industry groups grappled with a common challenge: how to sustain growth while building resilience against an increasingly unpredictable operating environment.
“We go from one crisis to the next,” airBaltic VP network management Mantas Vrubliauskas said during a panel discussion. “Sometimes it feels like we are in a never-ending sprint of running from one problem to another.”
Many European airlines entered 2026 anticipating another strong summer season. But the Middle East crisis, surging fuel costs and growing operational uncertainty have forced carriers into a more cautious planning environment.
At International Airlines Group (IAG), SVP airport affairs Patricia Cortada said airlines were operating in a planning cycle where long-term visibility has become more limited, with carriers still struggling to finalize parts of their winter 2026-27 schedules.
“We are in a conference today that, in normal circumstances, we would be discussing summer 2027—maybe new routes, maybe growth,” she said. “What we are now is in a position that winter 2026 is not even close.”
That compressed planning horizon emerged repeatedly throughout the event. Airlines are still growing, but network decisions are becoming more tactical, cautious and far more reactive to external shocks.
At the same time, speakers acknowledged that the pressure on European aviation is not coming solely from geopolitics or fuel. Regulation—and the cumulative cost associated with it—has become an equally prominent concern. Airlines for Europe (A4E) managing director Ourania Georgoutsakou warned during her keynote address that regulatory costs for member airlines reached €15.5 billion ($18 billion) in 2024 and could almost double by 2030 if current trends continue.
“The costs have risen four times faster than traffic over the past 10 years,” she said. “In Brussels and in Europe we have a hobby of regulating—and that cost of regulation has a direct impact on the affordability and the accessibility of flying.”
Concerns over the long-term cost and structure of Europe’s decarbonization policies also surfaced, particularly around the implementation of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates and emissions rules. Georgoutsakou argued that the current regulatory framework risks weakening the competitiveness of European carriers while still failing to create a sufficiently mature SAF market.
REGIONAL PRESSURES
The competitive pressures are becoming particularly acute for smaller and regional operators, many of which already operate on thin margins and limited network flexibility. European Regions Airline Association director general Montserrat Barriga highlighted what she sees as a gradual hollowing out of Europe’s regional connectivity network.
Regional airlines, she argued, lack the scale and financial flexibility available to larger airline groups, leaving them disproportionately exposed to fuel volatility, SAF mandates, labor shortages and operational disruption.
Barriga said around a dozen regional airlines have ceased operations in Europe during the past five years, while approximately 120 solely operated regional routes disappeared between 2021 and 2025. “These routes will not come back,” she said. “People have to find alternative modes of transport—sometimes it’s not possible, or it takes a long time.”
She argued that many more peripheral communities are at growing risk of losing direct connectivity altogether as airlines prioritize larger, more profitable markets and focus increasingly on network resilience rather than expansion.
However, despite the uncertainty, few airlines suggested growth opportunities were disappearing. Instead, network planners described a more selective approach to expansion—one that places greater emphasis on flexibility, operational resilience and the ability to adapt quickly when conditions change.
“We are very resilient as a team, and we can quickly move capacity from market to another and build strength on other core markets,” Wizz Air network officer Andras Szabo said.
Several speakers said that routes were being assessed through a broader lens than simply market size or yield potential. Operational complexity, airspace exposure and the resilience of local demand are all playing a larger role in network planning decisions.
At the same time, airlines stressed that opportunities for growth remain across Europe, particularly in underserved markets and secondary cities. But those opportunities are being pursued with greater discipline than in the years immediately following the pandemic.
The industry’s cautious approach was also evident in discussions around artificial intelligence (AI). While airlines increasingly see value in AI-powered tools, network planners generally described the technology as an enhancement to decision-making rather than a replacement for it.
SAS Scandinavian Airlines senior manager network strategy Andreas Åkerman said the technology was increasingly being used to support business development and market evaluation, helping planners quickly assess airport catchment areas, local economies and corporate demand.
Yet despite the growing enthusiasm, speakers repeatedly emphasized that route planning remained as much an art as a science. “There’s always a little bit of this gut feel,” Vrubliauskas said. “Sometimes perhaps the numbers are not really there, but you really think, ‘OK, this might actually work.’”
The consensus among network planners was that AI could help airlines analyze information faster, but human judgment remains critical—particularly when evaluating emerging markets, responding to geopolitical events or making decisions where historical data offers few clues.
SIDEBAR
PRAGUE NAMED OVERALL ROUTES EUROPE WINNER
Prague Airport (PRG) was the big winner at the Routes Europe 2026 Awards, taking both the Overall Winner title and top honor in the 5-20 million passengers category.
The Czech gateway delivered a standout year in 2025, handling 17.8 million passengers—up 8.5% year-on-year—and supporting 46 new routes, including 24 new destinations. Twelve new airlines launched service, while capacity increased on more than 55 existing routes. Long-haul growth included new flights to Seoul, Abu Dhabi, Toronto and Sharjah, while Starlux Airlines selected Prague for its first European destination with service to Taipei.
Athens International Airport (ATH) claimed the Over 20 Million Passengers award after growing to 34 million passengers in 2025, while Florence Airport (FLR) won the Under 5 Million Passengers category following a 9.4% increase in traffic.
The Destination award went to the Canary Islands Tourist Board–Promotur, recognized for a route development strategy that has helped increase seat capacity to the archipelago by 33.6% compared with 2019.
Jet2.com secured the Airline award for a third consecutive year. The UK leisure carrier now operates more than 650 routes from 14 bases to more than 80 destinations, supported by continued expansion and new bases at Bournemouth and London Gatwick.
The awards, presented during Routes Europe in Rimini, Italy, are judged by airline and industry representatives and recognize excellence in route development and air service marketing.
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