Showtime Nears For Ukraine’s F-16s

After months of training and preparation, Ukraine is set to receive a first batch of donated Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters in a move supporters of the beleaguered country hope will allow Kyiv to regain momentum in its efforts to push back Russian invaders.

Across the U.S. and Europe, Ukrainian pilots are passing through various stages of F-16 training. One group recently graduated from a course run by the Arizona Air National Guard’s 162nd Wing. Ab initio pilots who learned basic flying skills and English in the UK have transitioned to France for fighter training. Others are flying F-16s in Denmark—and will soon Romania.

• First Ukrainian pilots have graduated from F-16 training
• Munitions to equip the fighters remain to be determined but are likely to include Amraams

At the NATO summit in Washington July 10, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken signaled that the end of Kyiv’s long wait for the aircraft is in sight. After more than two years of Ukraine’s appeals to the West for the F-16s, transfer of the aircraft is underway, he said. “Those jets will be flying in the skies of Ukraine this summer to make sure that Ukraine can continue to effectively defend itself against the Russian aggression,” Blinken said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cheered the move. The aircraft “will also be used to bolster Ukraine’s air defense,” he said on social media. “I am confident that they will assist us in better protecting Ukrainians from brutal Russian attacks, such as this week’s strike on the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital in Kyiv.”

In all, Ukraine stands to receive around 80 F-16s from Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway. The Dutch are providing the lion’s share, and several of its F-16s already are based in Romania to support the European F-16 Training Center established last year. Norway specified on July 10 that it plans to donate six F-16s starting this year.

Delivery timing depends on when the countries are ready to part with their assets. The European donors are replacing their F-16s with the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, although software issues have delayed some of those aircraft, which could in turn delay the handover of F-16s to Kyiv. However, Denmark has said its F-35 delays will not affect F-16 deliveries.

The F-16 training program has been compressed from its peace-time length, given the urgent operational need, a Ukrainian pilot at the Skrydstrup air base in Denmark said in a rare video on the sensitive operations posted by the Danish defense ministry. “We are all motivated to go back to Ukraine to fight on those jets,” he added. The F-16 “encourages you to fly it aggressively,” the Ukrainian pilot noted, calling the aircraft “more agile” than the Mikoyan MiG-29 aircraft he used to operate.

“It’s a very modern aircraft that they receive from us,” said Royal Danish Air Force Maj. Gen. Jan Dam, chief of the service, speaking on the same video.

The possible start of Ukrainian combat operations with the F-16 comes at a pivotal time in the conflict. Ukraine has recaptured more than half of the territory initially seized by Russia in its 2022 full-scale invasion. Although fighting stalled last year, Russia this year regained operational initiative when the U.S. House Republicans delayed aid to Ukraine, starving its troops of air defenses and artillery. While that balance has shown signs of shifting again as the U.S. and Europe flow more assistance to Ukraine, Russian forces are still able to threaten breakthroughs and terrorize cities.

“A relatively small number of F-16s with the likely sorts of air-to-air weapons they will get will have some helpful functions,” says Justin Bronk, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London. The aircraft will augment depleted air defenses and could deter Russian aircraft from crossing the front line into Ukrainian-controlled territory, he says.

But Russia’s formidable air defenses, particularly near the front line, will limit F-16 operations to pop-up missions at low altitude, Bronk adds. That will restrict the engagement range of air-to-air missiles and the ability to target Russian fighters, which have been dropping glide bombs from high altitude far behind enemy lines. A recent attack on Ukraine’s Mirgorod air base also highlighted the need to move the F-16s to keep them from becoming targets, Bronk notes.

The impending arrival of the F-16s may already be unnerving Moscow, the UK Defense Ministry says, noting that Russian air operations began targeting Ukrainian air bases with cruise missile attacks in June. Ukraine, meanwhile, appears to have started a campaign to pressure the Russian Air Force and the country’s ground-based air defenses. Kyiv has ambushed several Russian combat aircraft using surface-to-air missiles, and the Ukrainians downed a Beriev A-50 airborne early warning aircraft.

The UK Defense Ministry said Kyiv’s coordinated attacks in Crimea have resulted in the destruction of Russian NPO Almaz S-300 and S-400 surface-to-air missile systems, too, while drone attacks on Russian airfields may have driven the country to base aircraft farther from the front lines.

The F-16s Ukraine is set to receive are in an advanced configuration, equivalent to Block 50 standard, despite the age of the airframes. Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway bought Block 15 standard aircraft, but all of those fighters have gone through the European Mid-Life Upgrade program and can carry advanced air-to-air missiles, such as the AIM-120 Amraam, and a range of air-to-surface munitions, including GBU-39 Small-Diameter Bombs.

The range of munitions proposed for the F-16s is not yet clear, but it is likely to include Amraams, given that Kyiv is already using the weapons with donated Nasams ground-based air defense systems. The U.S. also has given Ukraine AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles.

In addition to providing aircraft and training, Western countries have taken other steps to back Ukraine’s F-16 operations. The Netherlands pledged on July 10 to send €300 million ($325 million) on top of the €150 million already provided this year for ammunition, including air-to-ground weapons, the government said.

At the NATO summit, the coalition of Western countries providing the F-16s said it will support the sustainment and armament of the aircraft, “as well as further associated training for pilots to enhance operational effectiveness.”

Sweden agreed in May to provide Ukraine with two airborne early warning aircraft that could help coordinate F-16 operations. The Saab 340-based platforms are equipped with the Erieye surveillance radar.

While the near-term focus for bolstering Ukraine’s combat aircraft fleet is on the F-16, Sweden has indicated it is considering providing Saab Gripen fighters to the country. France has agreed to give Ukraine Dassault Mirage 2000-5s, which could be equipped with Storm Shadow/Scalp air-launched cruise missiles donated by France, Italy and the UK. Ukraine already launches the missile type from its Sukhoi Su-24s.