Commercial Aviation Predictions For 2026

At least one Boeing program—the 737-7—should achieve long-sought FAA certification. But industry should not be shocked if the 737-10 joins the 777-9 as a 2027 certification candidate.

Airbus and Boeing will not return to the delivery levels of 2018, their peak production before the COVID-19 pandemic. Supply chain constraints, particularly seats and engines, will slow down expansion.

Airbus will launch a stretched version of the A350 to meet demand. An A220 stretch will remain undecided as the planned production increase—and profitability—are pushed out further.

Spirit Airlines and rival Frontier Airlines will finally agree to terms, ending a long-running merger saga. Frontier will fold Spirit into its operations.

Main cabin revenues among domestic U.S. airlines will slump amid a “K-shape” economy. International traffic will plummet as travelers balk at new U.S. travel authorization requirements, while other countries respond with reciprocal policies.

CFM International, the GE Aerospace-Safran joint venture, will finally pass the 2,000-deliveries benchmark for the Leap-1 engine for the first time in 2026, marking a milestone first targeted for 2020 but delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, Boeing setbacks and supply chain problems.

The Franco-Dutch group will strike a deal to buy into TAP Air Portugal, enabling it to make the most of TAP’s strong route network to Latin America, in particular Brazil from its Lisbon hub.

Russian airspace will remain off limits to most airlines well into 2026. Even if a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is declared, it will take some time before insurance companies are willing to cover carriers flying over Russia.

Eurocontrol and air navigation service providers will reap the fruits of developing new approaches and tools. One or two serious weather events will disrupt the peak summer season, but overall punctuality will continue to improve.

Manufacturing mergers and acquisitions will surge in 2026 as demand for greater capacity combines with lower interest rates for loans and a desire by owners to enter or exit certain business lines. Private equity investors also will be looking harder to offload some long-held assets and roll up new ones.