Podcast: On Location—Key Takeaways From Farnborough 2026

Which announcements mattered most, what do the latest aircraft orders reveal about the market and where is commercial aviation heading next? ATW editors unpack the defining themes from the Farnborough Airshow.

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David Casey (00:23): Hello and welcome to Window Seat Aviation Week's Air Transport Podcast. I'm David Casey, editor-in-chief of Routes. Welcome aboard. We're recording this week from the Farnborough Air Show where believe it or not, the sun has been shining all week. And for anyone familiar with the British summer, that's not something you can ever take for granted. Now the show got off to a rather different start than usual. A change of UK Prime Minister on the opening day meant that there was no traditional government welcome and the Red Arrows aerobatic display team were notably absent from the skies above Farnborough. But while some of the familiar opening day ceremony was missing, there has been no shortage of industry headlines or activity across the chalets and exhibition halls. Boeing was also back in the spotlight. Its presence last year at the Paris Air Show was understandably subdued after the [unclear audio: "India 787"] incident just days before the event.

(01:14): But here at Farnborough the company's returned with a much higher profile, a series of major announcements and a more confident tone. So what have we learned this year? Which announcements have mattered and what do they tell us about where the industry is heading? To discuss this and more, I'm delighted to be joined by my colleagues, Victoria Moores, Europe and Africa Bureau Chief at Air Transport World and Alan Dron, Europe and Middle East correspondent at Air Transport World. Welcome to both. So before we get into the individual announcements, what have been your overall impressions of the show? How has it been for you this year, Victoria?

Victoria Moores (01:51): I think the thing that surprised me the most this year, David, is that we've had quite a few subdued air shows over the last few years. Obviously you mentioned Boeing last year, but we've not really seen that classic order flurry that we would normally see at air shows. This year for me has been quite different. My first briefing that I went into was an announcement for 10 737 Max's for SNBC. I'm sure we're going to talk about the lessor angle separately. So I wasn't anticipating it to be such a busy show in terms of orders. The other thing I've noticed is it doesn't feel like that we are in a period of geopolitical unrest. I'm sure that our defense colleagues have really picked up on that on the briefings they've done. Obviously we are commercial, we don't cover that, but it seems to be that the airline market for orders is very, very bullish and we've seen a lot of activity.

David Casey (02:43): Yeah, definitely. So there's that combination of perhaps unexpectedly strong order activity and a real sense of optimism. I think that's been interesting, particularly if you take into account the geopolitical backdrop of the show at the minute. So Alan, did you pick up on the same mood? How has Farnborough felt for you compared to previous editions?

Alan Dron (03:02): Well, I think it's definitely been buzzier than the 2024 edition, which was generally agreed to be distinctly dull. As you mentioned, David, even the weather cooperated, unlike recent Farnborough shows there were no heat waves or indeed misplaced chunks of monsoon that had unexpectedly turned left over Cambodia, which always helps. And there was, I would say, an indefinable perkiness to the atmosphere around the show.

David Casey (03:26): Indefinable perkiness is probably a good description of the mood here as any. And as Victoria mentioned, perhaps the clearest evidence of that confidence has been the volume of commercial activity. So Victoria, let's turn to the orders. Particularly prominent, as you said, has been the role played by leasing companies. SNBC Aviation Capital opened the show with a commitment covering 200 narrow bodies while AerCap ordered another 15 Boeing 787-9s. Many of those aircraft though won't arrive until well into the next decade. What does that tell us about the market? Why are lessors so well placed in the current environment?

Victoria Moores (04:04): Yeah, one of the things that we're really seeing is that the time horizons, the amount of lead time that you need for aircraft to actually deliver at the moment are quite substantial, probably the longest periods of waiting time since I started in the industry 23 years ago. So if you're looking to get any aircraft out of Boeing or Airbus, you're going to have a bit of a wait on your hands. For the regional aircraft, obviously you're likely to get those a little bit quicker. And I was speaking with Jim Harris, who is a partner at Bain & Co., the consultancy firm, and he said that this kind of environment really favors the lessors. And I think that's why we've seen so much activity from them because airlines need flexibility. The business model is hard. We get ups and downs. Fleet planning is always going to be long-term, but it's particularly long-term right now in terms of those delivery horizons.

(04:56): And the lessors are able to really step in to act as a buffer to make sure that airlines can get the aircraft when they want to. What Jim was saying was that production rates really do need to rise. The backlog has to be brought down and we need to be able to get back into a position where you're not having to wait for such a long time for aircraft. Obviously the supply chain challenges.

David Casey (05:16): So the lessors are effectively providing airlines with a degree of flexibility that the manufacturer's long backlogs no longer allow. I think another thing that was interesting is we saw strong interest in larger variants such as the A321neo, the 737 Max 10 and the 787-10. What is driving that? Is it primarily around demand or are airlines and lessors trying to extract as much capacity as possible from every scarce delivery slot that's available?

Victoria Moores (05:46): Certainly that's the picture that I got from the chief executive of SNBC and also from an airline chief executive that we had a one-on-one interview with. They were saying that because of scarce capacity, you really are having to upgauge. But then there was also talk about the fact that the flying public really want to be able to fly direct from point to point and there's been a diminishment in connectivity. There we see some newcomers coming into the market, particularly for new technology aircraft. Again, I'm sure we'll touch on that shortly.

David Casey (06:16): Yeah, I think that's quite an important distinction. Upgauging is not driven by one factor alone. It's the strong demand, the scarcity of aircraft, the constrained hubs, and the difficulty of adding frequency at some of those busy airports. Now, Alan, I think some of the clearest examples of the long-term confidence that we've heard this week came from the Middle East. So despite the geopolitical disruption at the minute, Riyadh Air has reinforced it with wide body plans with both Airbus and Boeing, including further A350-1000 and 787-10s. You also spoke with the leaders of Emirates and Oman Air. Did you get a sense that Gulf carriers are largely looking through the present crisis and continuing to plan for long-term growth?

Alan Dron (07:00): Yes. I think many of the Middle East carriers have the ability to look beyond the short term, partly because their government's horizons aren't confined by electoral considerations so they can take a long view of both airline and infrastructure development. I don't think there's much doubt about the resilience of the Gulf market and it's already rapidly bouncing back despite the ongoing strife involving the USA, Iran and Israel. Emirates' Tim Clark, for example, predicted that by August 1 his airline would be back to operating at 92% capacity and that last week it had an 82% load factor. To me, the order that intrigued me most was Gulf Air's letter of intent for an undisclosed number of JetZero's forthcoming blended wing body aircraft. Now blended wing bodies have been talked about for years with their projected fuel efficiencies and revolutionary design and several airlines such as United have signed up for them.

(07:54): But when I walked into the JetZero chalet and saw a small Bahraini flag flying, my initial reaction was really? That's because Gulf Air is a perfectly decent carrier, but for years it's been overshadowed by the Gulf majors such as Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways. I wouldn't have placed the bet on it being a customer for such a groundbreaking design. Now we're some way away from this aircraft flying, nevermind entering airline service. And a lot can happen between now and then, but it's an intriguing move by Gulf Air.

David Casey (08:24): Yeah, absolutely. Definitely one of the more unexpected announcements of the week. And perhaps it points to a wider theme alongside orders for conventional aircraft that will arrive well into the 2030s. We've also seen airlines placing early bets on some of the technologies that could help to reshape the market looking much further into the future. Now, Victoria, I know you've been looking at some of the technology announcements. What has stood out for you, particularly in contrast between the established manufacturers and some of the newer entrants?

Victoria Moores (08:54): Yeah, one of the things that I've been noticing, and it was also commented on by that Bain consultant that I was speaking with, is that we're seeing what strikes me as being a widening gap between the established OEMs who are pretty firmly digging down into their existing products while having a bit of a technology platform agnostic approach to innovation. And in the meantime, we're seeing all of these new entrants coming into the market developing their products and trying to get initial launch customers for those products. So it seems to be that there's a bit of a gap between the two in my perception. But when I was speaking with Jim from Bain, he mentioned that what he's seeing in the market is that the engine OEMs are pushing ahead with their demonstrators and their test beds. That's really coming online and we can only really see significant movement from the major airframe OEMs once those technologies have been proven.

(09:53): The other thing that we have to think about is whatever new platform comes online in the 2030s or '40s, that's still going to be flying in the 2080s. And I find that very sobering to think that that's the kind of level of technology that they're working on.

David Casey (10:09): Yeah, I think that really puts things into perspective that the technologies being tested today could determine what commercial aviation looks like, not just into the 2030s and 2040s, but much for the rest of the century. Staying with long-term fleet decisions, but returning to an aircraft that's already been delayed for several years. Alan, you heard some particularly forthright comments, let's say, from Emirates President Tim Clark about the Boeing 777X. What exactly is happening there?

Alan Dron (10:41): Emirates is not going to take delivery of 10 or 11 of the first 777Xs to come off the production line. That's because they were built some considerable number of years ago and they require a lot of rework to be brought up to today's standards. So Clark has basically told Boeing, "Sorry, not interested. Scrap them if you want." There are probably only a few major airlines across the world that could get away with telling an OEM that they're not prepared to accept early build examples of a new model. Emirates has rejected around 10 of these aircraft, but as the airline has an order book for 270 of them, it has the financial clout to be able to do so. You can imagine a certain former well-known Gulf CEO, our old chum Akbar Al Baker of Qatar Airways, taking a similarly tough line of manufacturers. Again, because he was such a major customer, he could get away with it.

David Casey (11:29): Absolutely. But Clark was not only criticizing the consequences of the supply chain and the production problems. He also suggested that airlines and suppliers should take a more active role in solving them. What did he propose there?

Alan Dron (11:43): Well, it's well known that the supply chain is having some difficulty ramping up production to support increased airline production rates. Clark suggested that if manufacturers are struggling to find the necessary capacity, they could do a lot worse than open new production facilities in Dubai. Several tier one suppliers are already looking to do so. And the Dubai government, he said, was ready and willing to assist them. "Dubai's ready," he said. Land, labor and capital are all there. More generally, he said that airlines should perhaps take more responsibility for sourcing their own components by increasing the degree of vertical integration of suppliers if necessary by buying them outright.

David Casey (12:22): Quite an interesting message then from this year's show that the industry needs to rethink not only what it builds, but perhaps where it builds and how it builds. But Victoria, turning to sustainability because it has felt somewhat less visible at Farnborough this year, even though the underlying targets haven't changed. Was the subject genuinely quieter or has the conversation moved from some of the ambitious announcements that we heard a few years ago into that much harder phase of financing and delivery?

Victoria Moores (12:52): Yeah, coming into the show, I was really anticipating that we were going to see a lot of sustainability activity. Certainly that's been the theme for the last few air shows that we've attended. But what we had here was it seemed quieter on the sustainability front. I think perhaps that's because the partnerships have already been formed and the work is already in progress, which kind of relates back to what I was saying about the engine technologies that are currently being developed. I really did love the quote from SNBC's CEO during the Max order briefing where they said that buying new aircraft is the best fuel hedge. And I thought that was a really good point. Now I did do some sustainability announcements during the show. One of those was a financing partnership between Air Canada and Airbus where they're looking to really scale up SAF in Canada.

(13:42): Though it was interesting that Airbus is partnering with its customers in their home markets on SAF. But returning again to the comments that I got from Jim at Bain, he said that he doesn't actually believe that we're going to hit net zero by 2050, not through the kind of measures that we've been talking about over the last few years. They believe that there will be a gap of about 30%, which will have to be met by reduced demand, which will be triggered by higher airfares. And that's going to be something which is worth watching. So yeah, at this show, there wasn't quite as much sustainability activity as I anticipated. It does come up in every single briefing. It is never not mentioned, but I really do think that the work is currently in progress.

David Casey (14:25): So perhaps sustainability hasn't disappeared from the agenda, but it has moved to a less visible and arguably more difficult stage. So we've covered the orders. We've covered some of the supply chain pressures, new technology and the challenges of decarbonization. But before we finish, let's step away from some of the major themes. Was there any memorable moments, small moments, any comments that you've heard away from the main headlines that really captured Farnborough 2026 for you?

Victoria Moores (14:55): For me, David, that would've been when I was in the Beta Technologies and Loganair briefing, which was where Scottish regional Loganair was committing to some electric aircraft to operate some cargo routes. The chief executive of Beta Technologies, the aircraft developer, said that they typically have problems when they use their aircraft in flying displays because people just don't look up because it's too quiet. They actually have to get the airshow organizers to repeat the fact that they're performing and get them to do it again. I thought that was quite indicative of how quiet today's technologies are.

David Casey (15:29): Absolutely. An aircraft taking part in a flying display without anyone noticing would certainly be a novel problem for any airshow organizer. So Victoria, Alan, thank you so much for joining us today on what's been a very busy few days here in Farnborough. For continuing coverage from the show and the wider aviation industry, visit aviationweek.com and look out for ATW on location. Thanks to our listeners and thanks to our producer, Natali Pelayo. If you enjoyed this episode of Window Seat, please like and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Until next time, this is David Casey disembarking from Window Seat.