Podcast: Fighter Deals Afar Stir Dubai Airshow

Robert Wall (00:06): Welcome to Check 6 on the close of day three of the Dubai Airshow for this the arms fair edition. As you heard in the prior Check 6, our commercial air transport colleagues have had a busy show with lots of triple 777X activity and other deals. 

We've also been busy with new missiles, uncrewed aircraft of course, and even trainer news. Here to unpack the highlights for you are Steve Trimble, Aviation Week's Senior Defense Editor and Tony Osborne, our European Defense Editor. I'm Robert Wall Aviation Week's executive editor for Defense and Space. 

The dynamics of this Dubai Airshow were a bit strange. I will say going in, we knew we were here when MBS, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia was inbound to Washington and headed for a meeting with President Trump and a growing assumption it could lead to news about a long discussed F-35 sale to the Kingdom. And in short, that happened. So Steve, perhaps briefly tell our listeners what Trump said and more importantly how that landed here in the UAE another Gulf country long considered a front runner for the first Arab F-35 deal.

Steve Trimble (01:12): Sure. Okay. Well, in the White House on November 17th, which was the day before MBS visited the Oval Office, Trump was speaking to reporters and told them that he was going to approve the sale of F-35s to Saudi Arabia. No surprise, they'd been talking about that for a while. This is probably part of a much larger package that's been talked about for several months of defense sales and they did also confirm the approval for 300 tanks, but there could be other aircraft involved in this and several other types involved. But the interesting thing is the regional dynamics here and who's in with Washington and who's out with Washington. I remember going to this Dubai Airshow in 2009 and at the Air Chief's Conference that they host sort of on the sidelines of the show, that was the first time the UAE expressed its sort of heartfelt desire to one day acquire the F-35. So that goes back 16 years and fighter deals take a long time to progress in the Middle East, especially with something as sensitive as the F-35. The US also has a qualitative military edge policy with Israel, which means that essentially Israel had ordered the F-35, it got delivered in 2016, which basically that starts a clock for about five years or so, is the norm for other countries to place their orders of the same type.

Robert Wall (02:46): Of course Israel has now used their F-35s in combat, so they're clearly well ahead in the game if someone even ordered it now among the neighbors.

Steve Trimble (02:55): Not only that, but they also get special treatment with certain communication and electronic warfare upgrades that they can do, and they're the only international partners allowed to do that. So they're taken care of. But in the process, the UAE was looking to acquire the F-35 that entire period and they came very close up to the point where in the first Trump administration in November of 2020, yes, that's right. In November of 2020, the Trump administration did approve the sale of 50 F-35As to the UAE worth about $10.4 billion. That approval of course, was rejected the following year by President Joe Biden and his administration. After some other things came to light, there were concerns about the UAE's increasing closeness with China, especially in the area of security. There was talk about this classified Chinese naval base just a few miles from where we're recording this in Jebel Ali and that seemed to change almost forever. It seems that the pecking order of who was going to get that premier fighter order for the F-35 in this region. Now Saudi Arabia had some other issues to deal with. There were some reputational consequences of certain things that happened in the previous decade. We don't have to go over all of that, but they were, which were

Robert Wall (04:39): Elegantly brushed under the carpet during the visit and were not so elegantly, I should probably say under the carpet during the visit of MBS into the White House.

Steve Trimble (04:48): Indeed, yes. And thank you. These are part of how these deals work. It's politics. It's not just military balances and so forth. The Biden administration clearly did not want to make that deal with Saudi Arabia. But once the Trump administration came into power, obviously that deal has gotten new legs with Saudis and that has moved forward. And for the UAE, it's not clear where they go with this, right? They clearly aren't happy with being now the perhaps second buyer of the F-35. But at the same time as I think you and I have talked, and you made the point, Robert, that in the course of these fighter acquisition deals in the Gulf region, because they take so much time, a lot of things can happen. So if we go back to 2011, I remember when at this show, Mohammed bin Zayed, the president of the UAE, said that the French offer for Rafales was uncompetitive and categorically threw out the idea of buying Rafales.

Robert Wall (06:02): Grand airshow story, if I remember correctly.

Steve Trimble (06:06): I think it was eight years later, they got a Rafale deal for one of the biggest orders of Rafale, not the biggest foreign order for the Rafale since that program began. So these things are in cycles, and of course, even with the Saudi deal, let's see what happens. This sale is to get approved by Congress. There could be some issues there and things could happen, just real world events. It's going to take a long time for this deal to actually get consummated in terms of getting an F-35 on Saudi soil. If this goes the way most of these F-35 deals go, could be several years before they actually confirm an order, then it'll be a few more years before the delivery takes place. And that of course will happen in the United States and the Saudi pilots will train on the aircraft in the United States and then fly the aircraft a couple years later to Saudi Arabia. So really you're talking at least early 2030s, if not mid-2030s before we see the aircraft arriving in the region potentially.

Robert Wall (07:11): And Tony, you've been also tracking this whole Saudi fighter program pretty closely, and obviously there are other countries and competitors who've been vying to sell aircraft there. What's your sense, what's their reaction?

Tony Osborne (07:22): And not just other countries, I mean there's also American competitors in there too. You F-15, Boeing F-15 for example, that's still trying to get to make some headway there, but there's been a long running supposed competition in the country for between the Eurofighter Typhoon, the Dassault Rafale and the F-15EX. Some people say it's a competition sometimes some people say there's sort of mixed views because Saudi Arabia simply doesn't run competitions generally, and the view is that they're not too worried about this, particularly the Eurofighter Typhoon camp. The UK has a long history of working with the Saudis and Saudi Arabia still wants to be on a next generation aircraft program, particularly sort of think Global Combat Air Program for example. And to be on that, you want to build up industrial capability. And industrial capability is not something that necessarily comes with an F-35 deal. So I still think there are options open for those nations. This is not, it's not end game. F-35 will change a few things in this royal Saudi Air Force, but not necessarily industrially or in view of those next generation fighter orders.

Robert Wall (08:35): Yeah, that seemed that people were saying, okay, this could be a setback, but is it really, we're just not really sure. I mean obviously early days, but interesting Steve, you feel like there was a bit of messaging that also happened here in the UAE after the deal was announced. So talk to our listeners about that a bit.

Steve Trimble (08:54): Well, you never know exactly what goes on in the minds of the national leaders when these things happen, but we did see MBZ as he's known, the president of the UAE, get a tour of the Russian pavilion and the Russian static display the day before, well actually the day of as it turned out, that Trump announced the approval of the sale for the F-35, but this was still somewhere hours before that happened. And he was photographed on the stairs, the air stairs leading to the cockpit of the Su-57. I'm not exactly sure if he got in the cockpit, but I heard talk that people saw him do that. I didn't actually see a picture showing him doing that, but that's a provocative move. I don't think a national leader does that willy-nilly or just on the moment. I think that's a calculated, probably a calculated action by him. The last time we saw something like that happen was President Erdogan do that at the MAKS Air Show in 2019 also to signal his displeasure, at least it seemed to me, for being kicked out of the F-35 program because he decided to buy S-400 air defense systems. So when you're mad at the US you

Robert Wall (10:10): Stroke a Russian fighter, is that

Steve Trimble (10:13): Specifically the Su-57?

Tony Osborne (10:15): But obviously this is part of his walk around of airshows and the Su-57 is making its debut here in Dubai. So is it possible it's just one of those convenient moments that he's taken an interest and we know he takes a detailed interest in all these things.

Steve Trimble (10:30): He passes by a lot of aircraft in an age stops at very few of them, and that one he chose to spend a bit of time at.

Tony Osborne (10:37): Right. But I think you would without an issue. Well,

Robert Wall (10:41): Right. Which airplane would you stop at? I'd see Tony, you talk to the Russians a bit here at the show as well. So what's going on there?

Tony Osborne (10:49): That was an entertaining moment. Normally I wouldn't deal with the Russians, but they've tried to be quite open this year. The Dubai show is one of the few airshows where the Russians really come out in force, especially because their home airshow MAKS in Moscow has been postponed now twice. And so this is really their only opportunity to showcase to delegations their new equipment. So that's why they brought the Su-57 along. They brought the Russian Knights along and a few other things. So I was in a room with Sergei Chemezov the CEO of Rostec. We were politely asked if we could ask him very nice, easy questions. There were no easy questions for him. He was asked about sanctions. He was asked about various programs. We took the opportunities to try and ask him about what was going on with Su-57 and opportunities for sales.

(11:43): Also the Su-75 Checkmate, which of course made its debut back in 2021. Steve will know that well, he picked up some of the bottles of perfume that went with it. But Chemezov was feeling quite bullish. I think he struck me that he said that the Su-57 was in great demand. He wouldn't be drawn on which nations were out to buy it. Of course, we've all heard suggestions that Algeria might be the first customer, he wouldn't be drawn on that. And he also said that the Su-75 was fairly close to its first flight, which is quite impressive given if true the rapid timelines of development. And given that they haven't really had many export orders for a while, which then funds their R&D for these programs.

Steve Trimble (12:29): They did say first flight would be 2026.

Tony Osborne (12:32): So maybe it's accurate. Yeah.

Robert Wall (12:34): Well that was not the only fighter deal that's been keeping us busy while we're in Dubai. Of course there's more fighter news not in Dubai. Tony, why don't you tell people what was happening in Paris near Paris?

Tony Osborne (12:50): Well, just outside Paris. So having spoken to the Russians, it turned out that Ukraine actually made even bigger news by then announcing that it had signed a sort of pact with France to acquire the Dassault Rafale. So they're looking at buying, this is part of a larger deal to try and address Ukrainian Air Force modernization in the coming years. So a few weeks ago we saw a big sort of MOU regarding purchases of Gripen. Now we've seen the same thing with the second European fighter, the Dassault Rafale along with weapons, ground-based air defenses and so on. But we're talking about 100 aircraft and then you include that then with the Gripen deal, that's 220 aircraft. We're sort of roughly talking about

Robert Wall (13:32): No idea where the money's coming from. Of course, I mean France has no money. Ukraine has no money.

Tony Osborne (13:37): Exactly. But I think then the vague hope is that maybe the Russians will pay for it through their frozen bank accounts, but obviously European countries are sort of, Belgium at least is opposing that. So yeah, we'll see if that happens. But Ukraine clearly needs peace or not. Ukraine will clearly need to modernize its Air Force in order to at least deal with the modernization of Russia's military, I mean they still fly Cold War-era MiG-29s, and obviously the transferred Mirage 2000s and F-16s. But they are not going to be able to deal with this advancing and the advancing and modernization of the Russian Air Force, which is happening, and they are becoming more capable and more confident in what they're doing. So they're going to need something more capable and more advanced in Ukraine to deal with this.

Robert Wall (14:29): Well, if that wasn't enough, Steve, as you were getting, you're flying over here today, we got a bit more Gripen news, maybe not so shocking or so impactful, but let's at least pack that in as well. So what happened?

Steve Trimble (14:42): Sure. Colombia finalized their deal for 17 Gripen Es. I mean the big news there was the actual number because we got, I think it was 18 to 24 when they committed to order it back in April or March. I think it was April. I was in Brazil at the time when it happened. And that finalization is a big deal for the Gripen program means they've got their third international customer after Thailand and Brazil. It's a big order and a big moment for them. The question now is on how they're going to get delivered. They were talking about deliveries between 2028 and 2032. And so far Saab is saying that the deliveries will come from both the Brazilian final assembly line in Gavião Peixoto and the Swedish final assembly line in Linköping. But deliveries have been very slow for the Gripen so far this is not something that is isolated to the Gripen program. We've seen a lot of fighter programs deal with this problem. And I mean in Gavião Peixoto, I think they started working on assembling the first Gripen two years ago. We still haven't seen it emerge from that final assembly line. So we're waiting to see that happen and they're going to have to start ramping up now to deal with all this demand that's coming with still potential orders. I think strong opportunities for the Gripen E from places like Peru and the Philippines and probably some other places.

Robert Wall (16:16): And Micael Johansson the Saab CEO in recent months has written pretty clearly, very clearly that they need to really ramp up because demand is strong and he also obviously has hope for more deals. Well, let's kind of park the fighter discussion now, but there's a lot more to pack in. We also had news on NATO's plan to buy the Boeing E-7 Wedgetail or the plan to no longer buy the Boeing E-7 Wedgetails. So Tony, you've been kind of bird dogging that story. Go for it.

Tony Osborne (16:49): Yes. So we've been keeping an eye on this situation actually since September when we learned that there may be some issues around this. Readers might remember that Boris Pistorius, that's the German defense minister went off to Sweden and he was quoted as saying that the Swedish GlobalEye, that's the Saab GlobalEye Airborne Early Warning platform, was in pole position to be NATO's next or what he believed to be NATO's in pole position for NATO's AWACS requirement. And it was quite puzzling because where did this come from? We had no idea. A few weeks later, the Dutch put out a press release very suddenly about a week ago saying this project is over. The Americans pulled out of what they call the support partnership, which was a group of seven nations that were funding the purchase of the E-7 and suddenly this program is dead.

Robert Wall (17:47): Well, in part because the U.S. was funding a significant proportion under the program. Exactly.

Tony Osborne (17:53): So we'd sort of noticed that something might be coming, but we hadn't quite realized the significance of this. But so essentially now NATO is looking for a new AWACS having wasted two years pursuing this purchase. And so now it needs to look for an alternative platform. And of course those bidders will potentially be scrambling for this. Those options will include the Saab GlobalEye. They could also include the L3Harris aircraft based on the Phoenix, which has been successfully offered to South Korea and perhaps even the Northrop Grumman E-2 and maybe an Airbus platform as Jean Brice Dumont, the head of Air Power at Airbus Defense and Space suggested here at the Dubai Airshow. But yes, he was harsh about he

Robert Wall (18:45): Very, he said it's a possibility. It didn't sound like he was about to embark on cutting up an A320 and putting a radar on it.

Tony Osborne (18:55): Exactly. But they could lean off a potential project that they're trying to work on with India, which would actually see an Indian active electronically scanned radar array put on top of an Airbus A321. So there are potential options that they could build off and then offer. But yeah, a big surprise really for the program because this looked like a shoo-in, especially with the U.S. program progressing for a while until recently.

Robert Wall (19:26): What is this? We've been talking so much this year about the debate in the U.S. around this. Do you think this tells us that this debate is over?

Steve Trimble (19:34): No. Well, at least not yet. But I mean it's a very complicated situation or a nuanced situation. You have the E-3 fleet in the U.S. Air Force that is falling apart and it needs to be replaced as soon as possible, except they also that there's a belief in the Air Force and now the Space Force that it will be possible to move part of this mission, the Airborne Moving Target Indication, which is airborne early warning plus the tracking of the aircraft into space and lower Earth orbit. And this has been the dream for a long time. There's a lot of advantages. You get instant 24/7 global coverage that way you don't have to wait for an aircraft to be in the region and it's impossible to make aircraft stealthy when it's observed from a satellite. The physics just don't work.

(20:31): But to actually do it is very difficult. Then it seems like they believe that they've managed to do some breakthroughs in the classified world that makes them feel confident that they'll be able to field this. But they've acknowledged the Air Force and the Space Force that it won't be ready at that part of the mission until the early 2030s. And then there's another part of the E-3 mission that's the battle management command and control, which is done by the people on board the aircraft. And that is supposed to be replaced eventually by JADC2, but that's a much more amorphous timeline that is not really clear when that actually happens. So there's this transition going on and the question is, do you replace E-3s with the E-7s or something else in the air right now, or do you just try to make do with those E-3s?

(21:25): And the Secretary of Defense last spring, their office basically came down with the idea that, okay, well actually we'll get rid of the E-7 and then we'll buy some E-2Ds from that are Navy aircraft and have the Air Force operate that on a temporary basis, an interim basis, which is not something the Air Force was very excited about. We can go into all the reasons for that, but that's a long story. And then ultimately Congress put their foot down and said, no, we're going to keep the money in place to complete the two prototype E-7s for the U.S. Air Force, and that's going to move forward. But it's not clear what happens after that. And so we're still waiting for the fiscal 2027 budget request process to shake out early next year where we'll actually see where the Air Force lands on this whole issue. And the indications we got from the confirmation hearing from Gen. David Allvin, the new chief of staff, were not definitive. He definitely was hedging his position on which way they're going to go, which is a surprise because the Air Force was very strong in this program for several years and now they're not giving it its full support. And of course we know that there's opposition to the idea from the Office of Secretary of Defense.

Robert Wall (22:55): Maybe this is not the hill to die on kind of situation. We had another bit of news that kind of unfolded here at Dubai at least, even though it's not really related to Dubai. But Steve, you were at a roundtable at the start just before the show where Steve Parker from Boeing, who runs Boeing's defense business signaled there was going to be a partnership coming and then we got it later in the week. Boeing snagged BAE Systems as their partner to offer a jet trainer in the U.K. And given the U.K. wants some local content and BAE being the obvious partner, a lot of companies were courting them and Boeing landed it. Now that is to provide trainers and perhaps for the Brits, oddly the most important thing is not, it will also be there flown by the Red Arrows, their team. So it's not important that your fighter pilots know how to fly a plane. It's important that they have something to show at an airshow anyway, it seemed like a potentially, well, it sounds like a potentially really good snag for Boeing. A lot of Brits seem to hate it. Tony, you seemed to largely hate it because it's with an American company. I will say. So Tony, you are a resident rep. Why do you guys hate us so much?

Tony Osborne (24:09): Look, it's not about hate, but there are questions about this aircraft. Obviously it's not a very mature aircraft. It hasn't actually entered service with the U.S. Air Force yet. And yet we're expecting to, BAE is expecting us to want to potentially take this on in the near future with a lot of question marks over it. There's also questions about the Labour Party, which is currently in government, really doesn't like Boeing. A lot of money has been poured into Boeing in recent years. And there are elements of that party that think that Boeing has not really pulled its thumb out and invested in the U.K. given the amount of money that we have contracted with them. I mean, we're talking about platforms like Chinook, E-7, P-8 and so on, and Boeing, I believe that Boeing hasn't necessarily reciprocated. So I think having another Boeing aircraft in the inventory won't go down well, plus it needs, if you're going to anglicize this or Britishize this, it's going to need various things on this airplane like a Martin-Baker ejection seat and not that American one, stick on the other side. And so there are lots of question marks about this. And understandably, there's the whole question of the Red Arrows flying an American airplane. I mean there's not going to be many other options. It's either going to be an Italian airplane or a Turkish airplane or a Korean airplane.

Steve Trimble (25:34): Chinese airplane.

Tony Osborne (25:36): Well, we've seen that here in the course in the UAE as well, a Chinese airplane flying for the national aerobatic team. So yeah, I've never seen so many comments on the story about this. I mean, yeah, this is going to go on for most, but it's a very interesting choice.

Robert Wall (25:50): When do you think we'll actually get, there'll be a decision out of the MOD?

Tony Osborne (25:54): So we're expecting the defense investment plan in the next few weeks, whether that's public or not, we are really not sure, but they have to really have something by 2028, 2029, because the Red Arrows will be the first receiver of this airplane regardless, believe it or not. So the Hawk T1, which is flown by the team must get out of service in 2030. And then the Hawk T2, which is the advanced jet trainer can wait a bit longer, although there has been some technical challenges with that aircraft with obsolescence and engine problems, which Steve mentioned in his story. So getting the Red Arrows on board is the clear must. I mean, politically you must have the Red Arrows because you don't have the Red. If you put them in abeyance for a while, you kill airshows. And you are also killing a recognized part of what makes us British like Buckingham Palace, fish and chips. I think I've written about this before. I know it sounds mad to listeners, but the Red Arrows are a really important element of this. So the team must transition to this aircraft in 2029. So the aircraft has to be in country by 2029.

Robert Wall (27:04): Right? The rehearsals also will take some time.

Tony Osborne (27:06): Rehearsals, transition and so on. Timeline.

Robert Wall (27:08): Of course, that time pressure is on everyone. That's not a sign of.

Tony Osborne (27:13): We've just seen here in the UAE where the display team here has transitioned very quietly from the Italian aircraft to the Chinese aircraft in silence where they've been able to rehearse over the desert without anyone knowing. That's not an option in the U.K. So even if you delay or put the team into abeyance for a year, people aren't going to accept that people are not going to be impressed. And any political party that takes that decision, i.e. the Labour Party, which is in government, which is already politically, that would just send the poll ratings down even further.

Robert Wall (27:47): All right, well I think we will leave it there. So we didn't talk that much about Dubai I realize, but you can take all the great work that Steve and Tony did on aviationweek.com 

Steve Trimble: And Robert's, of course, 

Robert Wall: Thank you, your check is in the mail. And with that, thanks Steve, and thanks Tony and our podcast producer Guy Ferneyhough. And as always, thanks for checking out Check 6 and check back soon for another episode of our podcast. And while you're at it, feel free to also listen in to the Dubai MRO episode, which is also going up.