Podcast: Boeing Absence Keeps Orders Subdued At An Unusual Paris Air Show

For commercial aviation the Paris Air Show opened in somber mood following the AI 171 crash but there was still plenty for our editors to discuss.

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Joe Anselmo (00:06): Hello from the Paris Air Show and welcome to Aviation Week's Check 6 podcast. I'm Joe Anselmo, Aviation Week's editorial director, and yesterday you heard from Robert Wall and our team about the defense highlights of the show. Today we're here with our commercial team to talk about commercial aviation highlights at Le Bourget this year. Joining me are Jens Flottau, Aviation Week's executive editor for Commercial Aviation; Guy Norris, our senior editor for propulsion; Thierry Dubois, our European technology editor; and Mark Pilling, managing editor for our partner Arabian Aerospace. Without further ado, Jens, let's kick it off with you. What were your key impressions at the show this week?

Jens Flottau (00:47): Going into the show, I expected it to be really unusual, obviously because of the Air India crash and its consequences and some other factors and I think tariffs, supply chain. So it was going to be a very, very unusual show in many ways. And I think three days later, I can say it was. Boeing pulled a lot of, actually all the briefings. Stephanie Pope didn't show up. Kelly Ortberg didn't show up. There were no Boeing orders announced. Obviously that was also reflected to a degree on the Airbus side. Airbus did announce some big orders, but it was clear that it could have announced a lot more and held back out of respect for its competitor and for India. So overall, that was a slow show in the sense with some exceptions. I got to the exceptions, one of them being a big order from LOT Polish Airlines for the A220, which was significant in several ways.

(01:47): It was a big order for the A220. It was a huge loss for Embraer and LOT being one of the biggest operators of E1s and actually having some E2s already in the fleet as well. It was also an example of how political commercial aviation commercial orders have become these days. Poland moving closer to France, a French European manufacturer. I do understand that there's been a lot of maneuvering behind the scenes in the run up to this announcement. When we went into the chalet for the announcement, there were three Polish ministers, the French transport minister, I think three ambassadors of the various countries involved, Canada obviously as well. So LOT was trying to give us the impression that it's not political at all and that it's based on product performance. But you may believe that, I frankly don't.

Joe Anselmo (02:51): So it's political because Poland believes they can't count on the U.S. anymore for defense and maybe it needs to be a little tighter with France.

Jens Flottau (02:58): It needs to be perceived as being more European as supporting the European industry. In this case, Airbus. Although ironically of course the Airbus that is buying is not built in Europe, it's built in Canada or the U.S. depending on where they take it from. So that is a bit of a strange aspect of this. But yes, the overall, the politicization, if that's the word of commercial orders, is clearly observable. It's also visible with orders that are not announced here. Everyone's been expecting a big order from China for Airbus aircraft. That has not come, I don't think. It has not come because of the Air India situation, but because of the tariff debate, I don't think the Chinese thought it was smart for them to announce a big Airbus order when at the same time they're still negotiating a broader trade deal with the U.S. So no more oil in the fire at this point. And I've heard the concern from inside Airbus, they are really, really worried about the dynamics that are in play right now and that they haven't been subject to, at least not to this extent in the past.

Joe Anselmo (04:11): Thierry Dubois, you are here in France, you cover technology very closely. What was the standout here at the airshow this week?

Thierry Dubois (04:19): Well, the debate on the relevance of an open fan engine is continuing. Just on the eve of the show, the chief scientist of RTX, Michael Winter made some strong comments against the relevance of an open fan. Obviously RTX is not demonstrating or not building an open fan engine, but still as a chief scientist, he was listened to as the parent company of Pratt & Whitney, and he said basically that an open fan engine would disturb the airflow on the wing, whereas you are trying in the future graph, you would try to make their flow more laminar. And I'm saying the debate is going on because basically two days after researcher with the research and technology center in France said, well, in any case, the open fan would be located near the wing at a place where we don't count on the laminar flow and the laminar flow would be on the outer wing. So technical debate going on and maybe more comment Guy.

Guy Norris (05:19): Yeah, well that's right Thierry. It's been one of the big debates of course, as you mentioned here in Paris, is what will the next Airbus look like? And in fact, what will the next Boeing single-aisle look like? And of course, if you're going to have an open fan, you're going to have to do something quite dramatic with where the wing is located to the fuselage. So all along we've assumed that it would be pretty well the same idea to have a gold wing which would fit both applications. After all, you're talking about almost a GE 90 sized diameter for an engine which is meant to replace a CFM56 or a LEAP or that sort of size engine. So they have to ensure ground clearance some way. So how do they do that? Well, of course the gold wing is what we've previously talked about.

(06:12): We've, we've seen how NASA, for example, has said it's a perfectly viable option. And sure enough, Airbus itself is developing as we speak, one-to-11 scale models and one-to-14 scale models for high and low speed wind tunnel testing next year with a small version of the open fan just to see what the impact's going to be on the aerodynamics and performance of the aircraft. We were talking to head of future programs at Airbus, Bruno Fisher, and he was basically saying, well, he revealed to us that no, you cannot use the same wing for the two different types of engines. We'd already assumed that a large ducted engine would have to be used if you're going to compete with an open fan. That's true, that is true. So therefore why would you put it under the wing? You've got to have a gold wing to provide adequate ground clearance for it. But now it turns out according to him, that if you're going to go for an open fan, you have to have a gold wing like this and it will not be suitable for a ducted engine. So that was a bit of surprise. In other words, if Airbus decides to go for open fan, that's it. You're not going to have two different wings on the air or the next generation single-aisle as far as they're concerned.

Thierry Dubois (07:32): My strong impression is that Airbus is more advanced than we thought.

Guy Norris (07:35): Yeah, absolutely. And I think the fact that they're pushing these two scaled models for testing next year shows intent. They're going to go all away with this and they really want to know the details.

Jens Flottau (07:47): Yeah, the level of detail that they're looking at at this point that shows exactly that they are advanced, it is quite serious, and they know about the timing. And speaking of the timing, what's emerged here too is kind of a pretty concrete roadmap of product development at Airbus, starting with some derivatives, the A220 stretch, which has been talked about for I would say years by now, and actually is a concept that's been developed by Bombardier when it was still the C series that is becoming more concrete. We've talked to some of the Airbus people here. I think they're very close. They won't launch it this year. They're still studying some of it, but I'm pretty sure it'll be, I mean if I had to bet, I would say next year is a pretty safe bet. They've also really, in a very concrete way, talked about a stretch of the A350 today obviously we have the 900 and the 1000, then 1000 being about 50 seats smaller than the competing 777-9, and now they're starting to look at should we actually have another 2000, which is the same size as the 777-9. One open question is should they do the 350 first or the 220 first? Again, my bet is it's going to be the 220 and then the 350.

(09:09): And then what you talked about the NGSA in the interview and the runup to the show, Guillaume was very clear in saying that he wants enter into service of that aircraft, a new single-aisle in 2037 or 2038.

Joe Anselmo (09:26): Mark Pilling, thanks for being so patient. Welcome to the team. We look forward to working with you at your show, Dubai in November, but it was great to work with you here at Paris. What were some of your key takeaways this week?

Mark Pilling (09:38): Thanks, Joe. Thanks for having me. Well, we're talking about the future aircraft. I mean, these guys cannot make their current aircraft fast enough at the moment, right? So it's fascinating to hear you talk about it, but there's no doubt that the order books are so packed and everybody's just piling in. And it's been shown here even with a relatively limited number of orders that we've had. I'm just going to comment about Saudi Arabia again because on Monday we had big Saudi orders. Saudi Arabia is going gangbusters in terms of its tourism, in terms of its aviation ecosystem. We had AviLease the PIF, the Public Investment Fund owned by the sovereign by government, essentially ordering more aircraft, a bunch of A350 freighters and A320neo family aircraft building up its portfolio. I think over 200 aircraft now easily. It's really going fast.

It's going to be a $10 billion company by 2030. This is a major lessor, top 10 in the world. This is fast progress in this industry. We also saw Riyadh Air top up its orders with 25 firm, 25 options for the A350-1000. This aircraft is really, really going well now for Airbus and Riyadh Air is going to be launching this year, but it's got a fleet, well, I've just totted it up, 182 orders now. I mean, this is a very significant new flag carrier in the industry, non-legacy. So that's my main comments at the moment. Saudi Arabia just watch this space, right?

Joe Anselmo (11:09): Thierry, Mark made an interesting comment. We all get so excited about next generation aircraft, but there are about 17,000 on order, and as he said, the supply chain just can't keep up, can it?

Thierry Dubois (11:21): Exactly. To Mark's point, they can't build the aircraft they've been ordered and they're all very disappointed. The manufacturers are disappointed with the supply chain. That has been the top concern for the last few years, and every six months they say that next six months or next year will be better. But that improvement basically never comes or very, very slowly. And at the show, the executive president of Air France Industries, KLM Engineering and Maintenance, so the major provider of maintenance, repair and overhaul services in Europe made a strong comment. She was angry. She really banged her fist on the table, almost literally against the OEMs and the suppliers, including engine suppliers. The point was, okay for maintenance, we need spare parts. You are not delivering spare parts guys, so at least please help us develop new repairs. And some of them are really uncooperative. Some of those suppliers are dragging their feet about helping Air France Industries develop new repairs and Air France Industries. Last year, on the last few months, sued, filed a complaint against Woodward, one of those suppliers, and she said, oh, that's very nice. Since we filed a complaint, they've been cooperative again. So we are making some progress, gradual progress on those parts repairs.

Jens Flottau (12:51): And Airbus hosted a large group of investors here at the show during the show in Paris and pointed out how it's changed its approach toward the supply chain. And it was very interesting to hear what they said. Basically, they've changed a lot by now agreeing to advance finance materials, purchases of suppliers so they can get moving by agreeing to higher pricing by sometimes helping them financially in other ways. And that seems to be an initiative that's been promoted mainly by Christian Scherer and supported by Philippe Mhun, who's the head of operations for the commercial aircraft business. So they've basically claiming in the past year or so, they've completely changed their approach to how they deal with the supply chain, get much deeper into it, are willing to support it more, are also willing to build massive inventory. They have tens of A320neo family aircraft on the ground in Hamburg, and Toulouse waiting for engines, but they trust CFM in this case to recover the delays fairly quickly so they can deliver the aircraft before the end of the year. So that whole relationship supply chain they claim is very different and shows results. The number of missing parts was down 40% by the end of the year compared to last year.

Joe Anselmo (14:33): If I could add just one observation, in addition to supply chain workforce concerns continue to hang over this industry. CAE, Montreal-based simulation and training company released a forecast here at the air show, and they're projecting for this industry just to meet growth and replace retiring workers, it will need to hire 400 people a day for the next 10 years just to keep pace. I mean, that was rather an astounding figure.

Guy Norris (15:01): In fact, that was discussed at the CTO forum that I was at. And essentially what they're saying is one of the huge problems that remains is to keep this industry attractive to young people. There's so many competing high-tech industries out there that are taking top talent. And the problem at the moment is that the more that our future programs are delayed, the more it puts younger people off because they don't see a future in this industry the way they do with others. But just moving, switching gears slightly on that. One of the great things about Paris, and we've said this, is that there's always a chance of something new showing up this time. The newest thing that I've seen certainly on the civil side is the CX-300, the conventional takeoff and landing electric powered aircraft from Beta Technologies. And it's been in every day flying.

(15:59): It's such an unusual looking airplane. And of course, the great thing about this is it's the Harbinger of the eVTOL and AAM revolution that we've kind of all been writing about for almost half a decade now. And it actually shows signs of coming to life here. We've heard a lot about from the AAM manufacturers, we sat through a session this morning, Joe, you and I didn't we, with Joby and Archer, for example, all showing great signs of progress. And Beta, of course, is about to take the airplane on from here to Norway where it will spend six months on day-to-day service flights with Bristow. And just to prove that, and as I think it was pointed out, wasn't it by Kyle Clark, who's the Beta founder, he did a flight recently in this aircraft from upstate New York down to JFK, and it costs seven U.S. dollars in electrical power versus hundreds of dollars in equivalent gas if you've flown on a conventional aircraft or a helicopter.

(17:01): So anyway, I thought that was really interesting. The other thing that I thought was kind of interesting too was that there's been actual talk about supersonic coming back. This was raised in the CTO panel. I never would've believed it possible, but I walked out of the CTO panel into the museum here where there's not one but two Concordes sitting there. And it reminded me of how swiftly fortunes can change in this industry. But I did want to say Joe and I, we did talk to the acting NASA administrator, didn't we not, and she had some interesting things to say.

Joe Anselmo (17:40): Indeed she did. Number one, she said, we always hear the Trump administration say, Europe needs to do more on defense. Well, they've cut NASA's budget and cancel a lot of programs, joint U.S.-European science programs. And she said basically the same thing about space: Europe needs to step up and step into the breach, which I found interesting, perhaps a bit insulting to the Europeans. And she also talked about the X-59 supersonic demonstrator.

Guy Norris (18:10): She did, yeah. And I thought that was quite encouraging. The X-59 is out there to prove the science behind low boom and the fact that you could indeed actually change the law, which has been standing since 1973, prohibiting supersonic flight, overland, of course, under President Trump's executive order. He wants the FAA to push forward and get rid of that law. And of course, she's saying that the X-59 is still relevant. It's despite an executive order. This airplane is several years late. Let's face it. It's not been easy to get this into flight. It's due to fly probably later this summer, I'd imagine. But it was good to hear the acting administrator lent her support to that because NASA has been under a heck of a lot of pressure recently, and it's particularly in aeronautics, which is deeply threatened by the budget as it looks right now.

Joe Anselmo (19:07): Well, Mark, this show is almost over and it's on to Dubai in November. Do you want to give us your final thoughts?

Mark Pilling (19:13): Well, I just want to have a little shout out for Embraer actually, because we haven't mentioned these guys in this podcast yet. But these guys, they're number three. They get overshadowed, obviously they feel overshadowed, but they're in pretty buoyant mood. They are giving a bit of a fight back in terms of their message. I mean, this is a company that is doing well. It's $7 billion in revenues, going to grow to, I think to $10 billion by the end of this decade. Delivers 73 commercial jets. It's going to deliver more in 2025, a hundred and thirty executive jets. It's got the defense side with the C-390 seemingly going pretty well. So it's in quite sort of buoyant mood in some ways. So I assume we should mention them and saying in their size category, especially in commercial, they did announce some orders. They announced Airlink in Africa, one of the areas that I represent for 10, that's big for them. They had a much bigger order for SkyWest 60 firm and 50 options as well. So a little shout out for Embraer who are agitating on the sidelines and I think doing pretty decent job.

Joe Anselmo (20:19): And I'll give 'em a shout out for their reception. There were lots of receptions here in Paris, Jens, tell everybody where Embraer's reception was.

Jens Flottau (20:27): On the Eiffel Tower. I've been to Paris numerous times, obviously to the air show and privately, but I've never been on the Eiffel Tower. So thank you very much Embraer for that first.

Joe Anselmo (20:38): And on that note, we will wrap up this podcast. Thanks guys. It's been a heck of a week, a big slog to get out here every day. But appreciate all your work. To our listeners, that is a wrap for this week's Check 6 podcast. A special thanks to our podcast editor here with us in Paris, Guy Ferneyhough. Thank you for your time and join us again next week for another Check 6.