Laurent Bayer on stage at Routes Americas 2026.
Airbus expects 100 million more people to be part of the middle class in Latin America in 2044 compared to 2024, driving airline passenger growth and demand for commercial aircraft.
“We see demand for about 2,700 aircraft [in the region through 2044],” Airbus Vice President For Sales in Latin America and the Caribbean Laurent Bayer told the Routes Americas 2026 conference in Rio de Janeiro. “We expect half will be replacing the existing fleet and the other half will be essentially for growth. We expect that among those 2,700 aircraft, 90% would be single-aisle and the rest will be widebodies.”
Overall, the population of Latin America will reach more than 700 million by 2044, an increase of around 60 million over 2024 numbers, Bayer said. He explained that the continued urbanization of the region’s population coupled with a growing middle class will translate into strong air travel growth.
Latin American passenger traffic will grow by an average of 3.7% annually through 2044, according to Airbus projections.
“This is a huge continent,” Bayer told the Routes Americas audience. “Even more importantly, [there are high levels of] urbanization. That's a big driver for traffic growth. We expect another 80 million people in Latin America living in urban areas [by 2044 compared to 2024]. That's about 86% of the total population in Latin America [expected to be living in urban areas]. This is the second highest [level of urbanization] after North America around the world.”
He added: “The middle class will grow by 100 million people. So what does that mean for traffic growth over the next 20 years? We expect the traffic to almost double in the next 20 years.”
Bayer noted there is currently low intra-regional air traffic in Latin America because of a lack of connectivity. Airbus estimates there are potentially 130 unserved international markets within Latin America. A growing middle class is likely to increase demand for travel within the region, according to Airbus.
“New route openings will boost passenger numbers on international services within the region,” Bayer said. “Intra-Latin America—for example, people from Chile flying to Brazil or from Argentina to the Caribbean—is a very small market. If we compare [intra-region traffic] in this market with other regions of the world, like Europe, it's extremely small. Around 35 million people flew intra-Latin America in 2024. This is 5% of the population in Latin America and the Caribbean. This is very small. If we compare that with Europe—in 2024, 1 billion people traveled within the European Union.”
Related Content
