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If you were to describe the situation in the Gulf in weather forecasting terms, it would probably read: Cloudy overall, with bright intervals. Occasional squalls. Outlook: uncertain.
The war shows little sign of ending months after Israel and the US launched strikes against Iran in February.
The effects on air transport in the region will likely continue for some time. Many Western airlines are extending the suspension of services to several Gulf locations and cutting back frequencies to others as periodic flare-ups continue to make airline managers and passengers nervous.
Local carriers, perhaps more attuned to the geopolitical and military problems that periodically roil the region, are rapidly resuming services. But it may take some months to calculate the full extent of the damage.
As of September, that effect in terms of passenger numbers and to physical infrastructure was patchy, Arab Air Carriers Organization (AACO) secretary-general Abdul Wahab Teffaha said.
Teffaha made the point that not all Middle East carriers had been affected by the conflict: “North Africa (with the exception of Libya) has operated as normal throughout this year. It is the Gulf and Levant regions that have hit problems,” he said. “The impact has been two-fold on Gulf carriers. You have the ones that were the target of aggression by Iran, like the UAE and to a certain extent Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar.
“The impact was definitely bigger on in-and-out traffic, but in terms of through traffic, their airports are still very busy, and their operations are close to normal,” Teffaha said.
The impact on Saudi Arabia has been “almost negligible,” while markets such as Lebanon, Syria and Iraq were small,” he said. Jordan had been affected because of over-flying missiles.
“The bigger impact is on the cost structure, not only on the Arab airlines but airlines of the world,” Teffaha said. “Not only with the rise of the oil price but the spread of the crack price between oil and Jet A1, which reached levels not seen for some time.”
The immediate effects of the conflict were seen in OAG schedules earlier this year, according to US-based consultancy ICF.
“March to June was a notable period of substantial change,” London-based senior manager Will Parker told ATW. “Middle East capacity was around 25% down, both inbound and outbound, including Western carriers. July-September is more like 5% down. August was about 6% down.
“But as is always the case with airlines, they make decisions pretty quickly and show a pretty positive outlook in OAG and change things as bookings come in.”
In terms of available capacity, “Middle East carriers are trying to get back to where they were as quickly as they can,” Parker said. “Emirates Airline and Qatar Airways were 4% down in August on seats, although Etihad was 11% up.”
StrategicAero Research chief analyst Saj Ahmad said the bounce-back was quite narrow. “Flight schedules are being re-established, but I think lots [of loads] are still very light,” he said.
Ahmad, who specializes in the Middle East, said that his understanding was that Gulf governments had been telling the US to de-escalate “because if the US starts bombing again, Iran will lash out at the Gulf states, and their economies will be badly hit. Once the Strait of Hormuz is closed, their economies are in tatters.”
What happens if the war drags on? “I’ve got an absolutely dreadful feeling that this is going to carry on in the way it is,” Ahmad said.
Meanwhile, the CEO at one Gulf airline that was faring quite well through the disruptions was abruptly removed by its government owner. Oman Air CEO Con Korfiatis was replaced by Nasser Al Sharji, most recently CEO at Omani ground-handling company Transom Handling and acting CEO at Oman Airports Management Co.
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