Farnborough Saw Unexpected Airline Orders, Confidence

FARNBOROUGH—The 2026 Farnborough Airshow has been a stage for both airline optimism and evidence that new technologies are maturing, analysts at the show say.

“The backlogs are so large and so strong already, I don't think we expected a bunch of big orders on the commercial side at the show,” Bain & Co. partner Jim Harris told ATW as the formal part of the show started to wrap up this week. “We just continue to be amazed at the optimism of airlines in the face of high uncertainty.”

Mirroring earlier comments from SMBC Aviation Capital CEO Peter Barrett, Harris also sees aircraft order lead times getting longer. This meant lessor orders stole the show and are clearly acting as the buffer airlines need in uncertain times.

“Production rates have to rise. Those backlogs have to be burned down. When you can get from an eight-year waitlist down to maybe a three or four-year waitlist, you're going to create that flexibility for airlines. But in the meantime, they've got to grab their place in line,” Harris said.

Bain’s consultants were also “pleasantly surprised” by technology announcements at the show, noting that multiple engine OEMs were reaching “robustness” and “proof points” on what next-generation aircraft technologies could look like. This includes hybrid engine ground tests and flights.

“Before you see any progress from the airframers on a new aircraft design, you're going to have to know that there's a worthwhile new propulsion system. We're clearly moving from the drawing board to actual real progress,” Harris said.

Airline priorities are also evolving.

“You're seeing their [airline] scorecards start to change a little bit, as they evaluate technology and new aircraft, to be a bit more balanced between fuel burn, time on wing, and maintenance costs, whereas historically they really prioritized fuel burn,” Harris said. “They might sacrifice a little on fuel burn to know they had much more reliability.”