The only clear lesson from the past is that MRO spending will drop drastically, independent shops will get a smaller cut of the remaining expenditures in the short term and then will eventually recover their share, quickly or slowly as events dictate.
If the ongoing corona-crisis does effect a structural shift in the air transport market, both the production and aftermarket sectors will have to adjust.
With large cuts in capacity and little expectation of a quick and full recovery, commercial aircraft are headed for one of four fates: temporary storage, long-term storage, cargo conversion or disassembly for parts.
Airlines are drastically cutting their passenger flights in response to the novel coronavirus pandemic, which could take several months to contain. This will cause a rash of aftermarket order cancellations.
The FAA, responding to airport operators seeking help on how to manage rising numbers of grounded aircraft as commercial operators reduce service, has issued national guidance on parking “overflow” aircraft.