Heavy Airframe Maintenance Demand Below Average Over Next Decade

A total of $52 billion is expected to be spent on heavy airframe maintenance (C & D checks) over the next decade, with demand below average at a 1.3% CAGR. Annual demand is expected to rise from $5.6 billion in 2021 to $6.4 billion by 2030.    

Grounding and storage of commercial aircraft will create deferrals of a significant number of calendar mandated airframe checks. However, as aircraft return to service maintenance events will increase and fall into synch. This trend will create three-year demand cycles with a high of more than 12,000 checks needed in 2021 should forecasts of return from storage activities pan out.

Demand will fall back down to around 7,500 events by 2023 before increasing again. This has the potential to create capacity constraints for airframe MRO providers over the decade unless demand can be flattened out by changes to individual maintenance schedules over the next three years.