10-Year Forecasts: Worldwide Deliveries Estimated 30% Down From Pre-COVID Levels

Worldwide deliveries of more than 16,000 commercial aircraft are projected over the next 10 years, a 30% drop from pre-pandemic estimates. 

Widebody and regional jet delivery estimates are 42% and 38% lower respectively.

Narrowbody deliveries consisting mostly of Airbus A320s and Boeing 737s now constitute 71% of all future deliveries, up from around 50% but have shrunk 28% lower than previously expected.  Expected deliveries of the re-certified 737 MAX is expected to soften the impacts to 2021 deliveries.

Asia-Pacific (not including China) will lead deliveries by value and by units, with North America following behind as it continues apace with recapitalization. 

The A320 will hold a lead over 737 deliveries and the 787 will outpace A350 deliveries in widebody aircraft.