Predicting What Lies In Store For The Commercial Aftermarket In 2025

Demand for engine module swaps—a cheaper and less labor-intensive method of servicing an engine than a shop visit—will be increasingly strong in 2025.

MRO providers vying for facility capacity will see a more competitive hangar acquisition and leasing market, and space to build new structures also could present challenges. This will lead some businesses to explore alternative options, such as erecting temporary hangars and maximizing existing capacity.

Engine maintenance demand will continue to rise, with MRO shops and even some airlines looking to partner with engine OEMs to establish joint ventures and partnerships.

Despite the market steadying overall, capacity constraints persist in the passenger-to-freighter (PTF) market. Following on from 2024, in which notable partnerships were disclosed, expect more MRO shops to divulge PTF conversion partnerships in 2025 to alleviate constrained slot availability.

Should the industry’s supply chain challenges be alleviated further in 2025, some shops likely will step up their nearshoring efforts to bring repair networks closer to home. Airline maintenance divisions will form part of this, looking to insource specific repairs.

Considerable private equity aftermarket activity occurred in 2024 relating to the likes of STS Aviation Group and TurbineAero. Similar deals also are expected in 2025, with specific market segments—such as parts repair specialists—ripe for consolidation.

Turnaround time (TAT) issues of the past five years probably will ease somewhat in 2025 as companies adjust, but they still will fall below pre-pandemic 2019 lead times, as parts shortages are expected to persist.

Given a lack of parts availability, aircraft disassembly specialists should enjoy a favorable environment in the new year as parts vendors pay above average rates to acquire components from torn-down aircraft.

With new-production aircraft issues set to continue, more airlines are likely to opt for lease extensions on older aircraft that will present further opportunities and challenges for the aftermarket.

As maintenance providers and airlines look to develop more accurate forecasting models, expect developments in the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning to optimize inventory levels. In the near term, this also could play a role in predictive maintenance and capacity management.