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C checks are projected to make up the lion’s share of heavy checks for regional aircraft in North America over the next decade.
In North America, heavy airframe MRO events for the smallest commercial aircraft are in decline. More than 1,500 major airframe events are projected this year, but the number is forecast to shrink to 1,000 in 2035 because the fleet size is decreasing.
The Aviation Week 2026 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast predicts both the fleet strengths and the MRO events generated by those in-service aircraft. For regional jets and turboprop aircraft combined, more common C checks are forecast to comprise 83% of the events and the more extensive and expensive D checks 17%. Given fleet changes over the 10-year forecast period, C checks are expected to decline 37% and D checks 14%. The annual MRO dollar demand is projected to decrease $73 million annually, or 16.5% over the period, in line with the declining fleet.
Over the next decade, about 1,000 aircraft are forecast to be retired from the combined regional and turboprop-powered fleets in North America. That loss is equivalent to a -4.7% compound annual growth rate. Some of the best-known workhorses in the segment are projected to account for the largest numbers of retirements: Mitsubishi CRJs, Embraer ERJs and Textron Beechcraft 1900s.
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