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Emirates will generate the most MRO demand out of the Middle East’s top 10 commercial airline groups.
The Middle East is set to capture nearly 12% of worldwide commercial aviation MRO demand over the next decade. Its MRO aftermarket is forecast to increase at 5.2%, the second-fastest rate on the global stage, due in large part to expected growth and the size of its future fleet.
With more than 2,000 jet and turboprop aircraft on order with manufacturers, the 1,900-strong commercial airline fleet in the Middle East is projected to receive about 2,100 aircraft during the next decade, according to the Aviation Week Network’s 2026 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast. The fleet gains should result in a 6.7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) after retirements, freighter conversions and storage activities are tallied. While Airbus has more than 670 firm orders for the A320 and A350, Boeing product orders outnumber Airbus’ by nearly 170 aircraft. The A320 family is Airbus’ most popular narrowbody and the A350 is its most popular widebody; for Boeing, the 737 is the most popular single-aisle, and the 777 is the most popular twin-aisle.
In the forecast period, $190 billion in MRO demand is expected in the region after 19,200 major service events and a 5.2% CAGR. Given the anticipated rapid pace of new aircraft deliveries, maintenance spending is not likely to keep up with fleet growth until late in the forecast period. Nearly $107 billion of the overall maintenance demand (57%), however, is projected to be related to engine maintenance. Engine MRO demand is expected to climb more quickly than for the overall MRO segment. Growing at a CAGR of 5.8%, the maintenance category is forecast to rise rapidly on a constant dollar basis through the 10-year period, with a few manufacturers sharing the demand.
GE engines are projected to account for more than half of the requirements, at $58 billion, reflecting the size of the fleet powered by the GE90 and GEnx. CFM International engines like the Leap series should push requirements to $20.6 billion over the decade, as they power the 737 and A320. Rolls-Royce engines are forecast to exceed $16 billion in requirements. Rolls’ Trent series powers the A350 and A330 and is an option for the Boeing 787. Pratt & Whitney’s narrowbody engine, the PW1000G, is an option for the A320, and its PW4000 widebody engine powers multiple aircraft, including the A330 and Boeing 767 and 747-400. All told, Pratt & Whitney engines are projected to accumulate nearly $2 billion in service events over the 10-year period.
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