Heavy Airframe Maintenance Demand Below Average Over Next Decade | 下一个十年里，飞机大修需求将低于平均水平

在未来十年中，飞机机队在机体大修（C检和D检）上将总共花费520亿美元，这一需求的复合年增长率将低于平均水平1.3%。而按年度需求计算，2021年的大修需求将为56亿美元，到2030年将增加到64亿美元。

A total of $52 billion is expected to be spent on heavy airframe maintenance (C & D checks) over the next decade, with demand below average at a 1.3% CAGR. Annual demand is expected to rise from $5.6 billion in 2021 to $6.4 billion by 2030.    

商用飞机的停飞和封存将推迟大量的日历机身定检。但是，随着飞机机队恢复服务，飞机维修将同步增加。如果对机队解封趋势的预测成功，飞机大修的增加将创造三年的需求周期，到2021年的飞机定检将超过12000次。

Grounding and storage of commercial aircraft will create deferrals of a significant number of calendar mandated airframe checks. However, as aircraft return to service maintenance events will increase and fall into synch. This trend will create three-year demand cycles with a high of more than 12,000 checks needed in 2021 should forecasts of return from storage activities pan out.

到2023年，飞机定检需求将回落到约7500次，然后再次增加。除非在未来三年内通过更改飞机维护计划来解决需求，否则这有可能在未来十年间会使机身MRO供应商的产能达到上限。

Demand will fall back down to around 7,500 events by 2023 before increasing again. This has the potential to create capacity constraints for airframe MRO providers over the decade unless demand can be flattened out by changes to individual maintenance schedules over the next three years.