Fleet Strength Should Recover To 2019 Levels In 2021 | 分析：航空公司机队将在2021年恢复到2019年的水平

自2015年以来，商用飞机现在役机队的年均复合增长率为2.9％，但新冠病毒流行的影响使机队规模急剧下降，并将影响持续到未来。

Commercial in-service or active fleet strengths have grown at 2.9% CAGR since 2015, but the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic created a precipitous drop that will linger into the future. 

在役的机队（包括已停飞但未封存的飞机）预计将降至27370架，略低于2015年的水平。相比于2019年底，到2020年底全球机队数量将减少3200架。

The active in-service fleet, which counts parked but not stored aircraft, is expected to fall to 27,370 aircraft, just below 2015 levels. By the end of 2020, 3,200 aircraft would have been lost from year-end 2019 to 2020.

今年，波音737系列飞机机队预计将缩减至6300架，而空客A320飞机机队预计将缩减至7500架。

In 2020, Boeing’s 737 family is expected to shrink to 6,300 active aircraft while Airbus’ A320 is expected to shrink to 7,500 aircraft. 

随着航空运输业市场的恢复，新机交付和飞机的解填封将使全球机队规模在2021年达到2019年的水平。到2030年底，窄体机将成为机队主导：波音737系列将增加到10000多架，而A320则达到近12000架。而即使预计未来新机交付量比之前的估算减少28％，但上面两个机型的复合年增长率仍为3.7％。总体机队规模预计将以2.4％的复合年增长率回升，这主要归因于窄体机的适应能力较强，但由于这类机型较高退休率而没能使机队规模进一步增加。

As recovery takes hold, deliveries combined with aircraft returning from storage should combine to increase fleet strength to 2019 levels in 2021.  By the end of 2030, narrowbodies lead the charge: the 737 family rises to more than 10,000 while the A320 reaches almost 12,000 in service, exhibiting a 3.7% CAGR for each, even after a projected 28% reduction in new deliveries from previous estimates. Fleet strength is expected to claw back at a subdued 2.4% CAGR led primarily by narrowbody resilience but hampered by high retirement rates.

预计在未来十年内，将退出封存的大多数飞机预计将在2021年返回，而到2022年底，将有近500架飞机从封存中退出而返回机队。由于跨国旅行的限制将长期存在，宽体机的服役速度预计将是最慢的。

The vast majority of aircraft that are expected to be reactivated over the next decade is expected to return in 2021 with nearly 500 returning to the fleet by the end of 2022. Twin aisle aircraft are expected to experience the slowest return to service due to the persistent constraints on long distance, international travel.