10-Year Forecasts: Worldwide Deliveries Estimated 30% Down From Pre-COVID Levels | 未来十年预测：全球交付量比新冠疫情之前的水平将下降30％

预计在未来10年内，全球将交付超过16000架商用飞机，比疫情流行前交付量估计下降30％。

Worldwide deliveries of more than 16,000 commercial aircraft are projected over the next 10 years, a 30% drop from pre-pandemic estimates. 

宽体飞机和喷气式支线飞机的交付量估计会分别降低42％和38％。

Widebody and regional jet delivery estimates are 42% and 38% lower respectively.

窄体机交付主要由空客A320和波音737组成，这两款机型将占未来窄体机交付的71％。虽然这两款机型市场份额占比高于50％，但仍然比之前的预期减少了28％。 在重新获得认证后，波音737 MAX事故对2021年预期交付的影响有望减轻。

Narrowbody deliveries consisting mostly of Airbus A320s and Boeing 737s now constitute 71% of all future deliveries, up from around 50% but have shrunk 28% lower than previously expected.  Expected deliveries of the re-certified 737 MAX is expected to soften the impacts to 2021 deliveries.

亚太地区（不包括中国）将引领全球市场——不论是按价值还是按交付量估算。北美地区在快速进行资本结构调整之后，市场份额将紧随亚太地区。

Asia-Pacific (not including China) will lead deliveries by value and by units, with North America following behind as it continues apace with recapitalization. 

在窄体机方面，A320的交付量将超过波音737，而宽体机方面波音787将超过A350。

The A320 will hold a lead over 737 deliveries and the 787 will outpace A350 deliveries in widebody aircraft.