10-Year Forecasts: Worldwide Deliveries Estimated 30% Down From Pre-COVID Levels | 未来十年预测:全球交付量比新冠疫情之前的水平将下降30%


Worldwide deliveries of more than 16,000 commercial aircraft are projected over the next 10 years, a 30% drop from pre-pandemic estimates. 



Widebody and regional jet delivery estimates are 42% and 38% lower respectively.

窄体机交付主要由空客A320和波音737组成,这两款机型将占未来窄体机交付的71%。虽然这两款机型市场份额占比高于50%,但仍然比之前的预期减少了28%。 在重新获得认证后,波音737 MAX事故对2021年预期交付的影响有望减轻。

Narrowbody deliveries consisting mostly of Airbus A320s and Boeing 737s now constitute 71% of all future deliveries, up from around 50% but have shrunk 28% lower than previously expected.  Expected deliveries of the re-certified 737 MAX is expected to soften the impacts to 2021 deliveries.



Asia-Pacific (not including China) will lead deliveries by value and by units, with North America following behind as it continues apace with recapitalization. 


The A320 will hold a lead over 737 deliveries and the 787 will outpace A350 deliveries in widebody aircraft.