新机队预测凸显新冠病毒疫情的影响范围 | New Fleet Forecast Underscores Pandemic’s Reach

在商业航空领域正在遭受历史上最大的需求下滑之际，航空公司的机队升级计划也在生存的夹缝中倒退。

Airline fleet-planning is taking a back seat to planning for survival amid the largest demand downturn in commercial aviation history.

尽管如此，业内就近期的航空运输业趋势形成了一些普遍共识，全球机队的改变正逐渐成为人们关注的焦点。

Still, with the worst of the slump seemingly in the past and some general consensus forming about near-term traffic trends, the global fleet’s revamped look is slowly coming into focus.

最新的《Aviation Week Network - 航空周刊》预测数据显示，由于机队退役、飞机被临时存储，以及新机交付量的急剧下降，到2020年底全球在役的航空运输机队预计将比一年前减少10％。展望未来，与疫情前的预测相比，新冠疫情流行引起的需求下降将使未来十年的新飞机交付量减少30％。

The active global air transport fleet is expected to be 10% smaller at the end of 2020 compared to a year earlier, thanks to a blend of retirements, temporary storage, and a precipitous drop in deliveries, the latest Aviation Week forecast data show. Looking further ahead, lower demand coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic will reduce new-aircraft deliveries 30% in the decade ahead compared to pre-downturn projections.

修订后的数字显示，全球客运和货运航空公司于2020年12月31日前投入服务的飞机数量将为27300架，低于年初的30500架，净减少3200架飞机。其中包括有720架飞机预计将退役，占在役机队的2.4％。

Global passenger and cargo carriers will have 27,300 aircraft in service on Dec. 31, down from 30,500 at the start of the year, the revised figures show. The net decline of 3,200 aircraft includes a projected 720 retirements, or 2.4% of the active fleet.

预计今年的商用飞机总交付量为895架，而波音737 MAX重新通过审查的时间可能会影响这一数字，因为波音目前储存了450架左右的波音737MAX，他们很希望在FAA审查通过后迅速交付给客户。但即使假设监管机构在今年晚些时候还没有开始批准波音737MAX的复飞申请，今年飞机总交付量少于1000架的可能性已经很大。在过去30年中，飞机交付量少于1000架的情况只有10次，而在2006年以后则是首次出现这样的情况。在2019年，即使有400多架波音737MAX无法交付，但当年的飞机交付总量也达到了 1425架。

Deliveries this year are projected to total just 895. The timing of Boeing 737 MAX return-to-service approvals could affect this number, as the manufacturer has more than 450 built MAXs sitting in storage that it would very much like to hand over to customers. Assuming regulators do not start granting MAX approvals much before late in the year, however, an aggregate delivery total of fewer than 1,000 new aircraft is a strong possibility. It would mark only the tenth time in the last three decades that air transport manufacturers combined to hand over fewer than 1,000 aircraft in a calendar year, and the first since 2006. The 2019 total, held down by the MAX delivery halt that kept some 400 aircraft from entering service, was 1,425.

上述这些情况都使得到2020年底全球飞机机队的规模与2015年时相当，更加凸显了新冠病毒疫情对全球空中交通需求的影响。

The drop in deliveries and jump in both retirements and temporary removals will leave the year-end 2020 global fleet of aircraft certified for 19 or more seats on par with 2015’s fleet size, underscoring the pandemic’s ramifications on global air traffic demand.

随着退役机队的增加，许多原先处于储存中的飞机预计将重新加入机队，以支持需求回升。据《航空周刊》预计，到2023年将有2100架飞机从长期储存中恢复飞行。

While retirements are on the rise, many stored aircraft are expected to re-join fleets to support demand recovery. Aviation Week projects 2,100 aircraft returning from long-term storage by 2023.

根据国际航空运输协会（IATA）的最新预测，至少到2023年前全球航空客运量仍将处于2019年水平以下；而如果按客千米数收入衡量，2020年的航空运输量将下降54％。

The most recent IATA projections have global airline traffic staying below 2019 levels through at least 2023. Traffic, as measured in revenue passenger kilometers, will be off 54% in 2020, IATA projects.

2020年4月份是全球航空运输量的最低点，而中国在此前两个月时其航空运输量就已进入低谷。而在此航空出行需求空前下滑之后，预计交通量将缓慢回升。在回升期时，各国国内和区域间的需求将超过国际航班量，这主要是各国间的旅行限制使旅客失去了国际飞行的动力。休闲飞行也有望在一段时间内超过公务飞行，截至目前这一趋势在航班复苏脚步中显而易见。

Following 2020’s unprecedented decline—April appeared to be the low point for global traffic, though markets hit earlier by the COVID-19 pandemic, notably China, saw their troughs several months before—traffic is expected to slowly come back. Domestic and regional demand will out-pace international traffic, largely due to lost momentum following travel restrictions. Leisure traffic is also expected to out-pace business flying for a while—a trend that is evident in the recovery to date.

据预测，2021-2030年间的全球机队将以2.4％的年复合增长率（CAGR）增长，机队规模可达38300架。而在这10年中，新机交付量将达到16200架，这比疫情流行前的机队预测规模降低约30％。

The global fleet is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4% from 2021-2030, resulting in a fleet of 38,300 aircraft, the forecast says. New deliveries will total 16,200 during the decade—about 30% lower than pre-pandemic estimates.

在未来10年的时间里，宽体机的交付量总计约为2500架，比疫情前的预测低42％，这反映出长途飞行需求的恢复预期较慢。窄体机交付量将达到11500，比疫情前的预测低28％。支线飞机预计交付1150架，比疫情前的预测低38％。

Widebody deliveries will total about 2,500 during the 10-year stretch, which is 42% below the pre-pandemic forecast, reflecting the slower expected return of long-haul demand. Narrowbody deliveries will top 11,500—a 28% decline compared to pre-pandemic calculations. Regional jets, already on the decline thanks largely to upgauging trends, are projected to account for 1,150 deliveries, or 38% lower than before the COVID-19 outbreak.

航空公司在未来10年将永久退役近9200架飞机，退役高峰预计出现在2028和2029年，届时每年将退役1000多架飞机。

Airlines will permanently retire nearly 9,200 aircraft during the decade, the forecast shows. Calendar-year peaks are projected to come in 2028 and 2029, with each year expected to see more than 1,000 retirements.

而未来10年间平均每年退役920架飞机，这比近年的数字显着提高。据《航空周刊》的数据显示，2015-2019年的年平均退役飞机为657架，在2020年预计将攀升至720架，其部分原因是疫情的影响。

The average of 920 retirements per year during the coming decade is a notable jump over recent figures. Aviation Week data shows that annual retirements from 2015 through 2019 averaged 657, before climbing to a projected 720 in 2020, in part due to the pandemic’s fallout.

当然，还有很多情况是未知的，例如航空公司将如何利用其突然增加的飞机储备量。 处于绿色时间状态的发动机将被试飞，以避免昂贵的全面检修。而可生产OEM替换零件的供应商Heico公司则报告发现一个明显的趋势，即大量客户订购的零件量少于当前飞行活动的实际需求， 这可能表明疫情之前客户手中零件的库存量比预想的要多；又或者这种情况可能表明航空公司以“创新性的方式”使用了更多的飞机来执行航班，从而稀释了每架飞机的长期维修费用。

Among the many unknowns: how airlines will leverage their sudden abundance of spare capacity. Engines with green time will be tapped to fly in an effort to push off expensive full overhauls. OEM-alternative parts supplier Heico reports detecting clear trends where high-volume customers are ordering fewer parts than current flying activity suggests they need. This could be a sign that pre-pandemic parts inventories were more stocked than some thought. Or, it may be evidence of airlines using their plethora of available aircraft in creative ways to avoid spending money on maintenance for as long as possible.

当然，在众多未知情况中可以肯定的是，全球航空机队的趋势正在迅速变化，而且这种影响将持续多年。

Among the abundance of unknowns, there is one certainty: global airline fleet trends are changing rapidly, and the fallout will be evident for years.

这条消息是Sean Broderick在Aviation Daily发表的文章。加入航空周刊情报网(AWIN)会员，访问公司、项目、机队和联系人数据库，获取权威解析与市场情报并找到新的业务机会。点击击此预约您的产品演示。