航空航天分析师认为波音737 MAX的成本还将增加

波音的利益相关者可能会在公司1月29日发布的2019年财务业绩报告中找到有关737 MAX惨烈成本的更多信息。波音此前确定了对飞机运营商的56亿美元税前客户补偿，并将737计划的会计核算费用增加了36亿美元，但金融分析师、顾问和其他人士都认为这些数字只是一个开始。

Boeing stakeholders may find out more information about the costs of the 737 MAX fiasco during the company’s Jan. 29 report on 2019 financial results. While Boeing previously identified $5.6 billion in pretax customer compensation for aircraft operators, and added $3.6 billion to the 737’s program accounting block-cost, financial analysts, consultants and others see those figures as just a beginning.

首先，已经知道会产生新的成本，如飞行模拟器培训成本，但波音尚未对此作公开解释。1月9日，彭博社分析师乔治·弗格森（George Ferguson）和弗朗索瓦·杜夫洛（Francois Duflot）表示：“以西南航空[Airlines]为参照，模拟器培训可能会增加约50亿美元的停飞成本，该航空公司在2019年第三季度积压了4,543架[737 MAXs]，现有机队还有385架，所有这些均是在停飞之前售出的。”

For starters, new costs such as flight simulator training, already are known but have yet to be publicly explained by Boeing. “Simulator training likely will add almost $5 billion to the cost of the grounding, using Southwest [Airlines] as a benchmark for the 4,543 [737 MAXs] in backlog at the third quarter of 2019 and the 385 in existing fleets, all of which were sold before the grounding,” Bloomberg analysts George Ferguson and Francois Duflot said Jan. 9.

同样，航空经济学家克里斯·塔里（Chris Tarry）在本月的一份新报告中称，波音仅航空公司一项就面临超过80亿美元的赔偿。去年12月，当波音宣布停产MAX时，Jefferies分析师希拉·卡亚奥卢（Sheila Kahyaoglu）和格雷格·康拉德（Greg Konrad）就推测，到2020年第一季度末，仅顾客优惠就可能达到11.7美元。

Similarly, aviation economist Chris Tarry said in a new report this month that Boeing faced a bill of more than $8 billion in compensation for airlines alone. In December, when Boeing announced the MAX production halt, Jefferies analysts Sheila Kahyaoglu and Greg Konrad surmised that customer concessions alone could reach $11.7 through the end of the first quarter of 2020.

其次，还有波音停放的大约400架MAX的库存费用，以及可能对3,100-飞机计划会计模块基础进行进一步更改的费用。Jefferies团队表示，飞机认证的持续延迟和生产节奏的改变可能会给波音的营收带来另外36亿美元的费用。

Then there are costs for carrying the inventory of roughly 400 MAXs parked by Boeing, as well as potential further changes to the 3,100-aircraft program accounting block basis. The Jefferies team said the ongoing delay in aircraft certification and change in production cadence could generate another $3.6 billion charge to Boeing’s earnings.

几位行业分析师和顾问还认为，波音必须对其供应链给予一定程度的财务支持，以便供应商能够再次有效地提高MAX生产率。穆迪投资者服务公司（Moodys Investors Service）分析师在1月10日的报告中表示，他们预计波音将根据需要在个别方面支持供应商。但具体成本还无法量化。

Several industry analysts and consultants also believe Boeing will have to support its supply chain financially to some degree, so providers are able to ramp-up MAX production rates again as efficiently as possible. Moody’s Investors Service analysts said in a Jan. 10 report they expect Boeing to be supportive of suppliers on an individual, as-needed basis. But costs were not quantifiable yet.

穆迪表示：“我们将特别关注处于弱势地位的公司及/或那些拥有独家产品的公司。”

“There will be a particular focus on weakly positioned companies and/or those that have sole-sourced products,” Moody’s suggested.

“任何支持安排的确切性质可能采取多种形式，包括某些供应商保持一定的产量（并继续获得报酬）、预付款、更优惠（即更快）的付款条件、承购库存和/或简化供应商融资流程。”

“The exact nature of any support arrangements could take multiple forms, including certain suppliers maintaining some level of production (and continuing to get paid), advance payments, more favorable (i.e., quicker) payment terms, inventory assumption and/or the facilitation of access to vendor financing.”

其他费用也将接踵而至，例如通过法律诉讼对受害者家属的最终赔偿。同样，可能会出现股东诉讼，需要花费诉讼费用。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，承担更多的债务会产生额外的成本，利益相关者希望波音公司这样做但不要削减股东的股息。

Other costs loom, too, such as final compensation to victims’ families through legal action. Similarly, shareholder lawsuits may emerge that require spending to litigate. Last but not least, there will be additional costs from taking on more debt, which Boeing is expected to do rather than cut shareholder dividends.

总的来说，MAX崩溃的全部成本可能要历时数年才能知晓。当2019年10月中旬波音认为MAX有望在当年年底前恢复服务时，美国银行美林（Bank of America-Merrill-Lynch）分析师罗恩•爱泼斯坦（Ron Epstein）就预计这一情况不会在2020年第一季度前出现。他预测，在2019-2023年，737 MAX的总成本将达到172亿美元。1月16日，爱泼斯坦告诉CNBC，如果飞机在6月或7月复飞，停飞的总费用可能达到200亿美元，还不包括坠机受害者家属提起的任何和解协议。

Altogether, it could take years before the full costs of the MAX debacle are known. In mid-October 2019—when Boeing still saw a MAX return to service before the end of last year—Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Ron Epstein already had expected it would not occur before the first quarter of 2020. He forecast costs for the 737 MAX to total $17.2 billion in 2019-23. On Jan. 16, Epstein told CNBC the total cost of the grounding could reach $20 billion—excluding any settlements from lawsuits from crash victims’ families—if the aircraft return by June or July.

这条消息是Michael Bruno在Aviation Daily发表的文章。

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