Paris 2019: Boeing raises market outlook on growth forecasts

Growing passenger volumes and increasing airplane retirements will drive the need for 44,040 new aircraft, valued at $6.8trn, over the next two decades.

That’s according to the latest Boeing Commercial Market Outlook for 2019, which was released at the Paris Air Show on Monday.

Of the new aircraft deliveries, the report said 44 percent would go towards replacing aging aircraft while the rest will accommodate traffic growth.

Factoring in the new jets and those that will remain in service, the global commercial fleet is expected to reach 50,660 aircraft by 2038. This is the first time the projected fleet has topped the 50,000 mark.

"Time and again, commercial aviation has shown itself to be extremely resilient,” said Boeing Commercial Marketing vice president Randy Tinseth.

“Notwithstanding some recent moderation in passenger and cargo traffic growth, all indications are pointing to our industry sustaining its unprecedented streak of profitable expansion.

"In fact, we see a market that is broader, deeper and more balanced than we have seen in the past.”

Boeing said the largest segment remains the single-aisle market as operators are projected to demand 32,420 new aircraft over the next 20 years.

In the widebody segment, Boeing forecasts demand for 8,340 new passenger planes valued at more than $2.6trn.

The Asia Pacific region, which includes China, will continue to lead the way in future growth, accounting for 40 percent of total aircraft deliveries. North America and Europe complete the top three regions for future growth.

Boeing’s new aircraft deliveries forecast to 2038 by size:

Type Demand Projected value
Regional jets (90 and below) 2,240 $105bn
Single-aisle (90 and above) 32,420 $3,775bn
Wide-body 8,340 $2,650bn
Freighter wide-body 1,040 $300bn
Total 44,040 $6,800bn

Boeing's market forecast to 2038 by region:

Region Aircraft deliveries
Asia Pacific 17,390
North America 9,130
Europe 8,990
Middle East 3,130
Latin America 2,960
Russia/C.I.S. 1,280
Africa 1,160
Total 44,040
David Casey

David Casey is Editor in Chief of Routes, the global route development community's trusted source for news and information.