(L-R): Victoria Moores, ATW; Patricia Cortada, IAG; Gintarė Norvilaitė-Tautevičė, Lithuanian Airports; and Montserrat Barriga, European Regions Airline Association.
RIMINI, Italy—European airlines are slowing network and capacity planning as high costs and geopolitical uncertainty undermine visibility for the upcoming winter season, delegates at Routes Europe 2026 heard.
Speaking during a panel discussion, Patricia Cortada, SVP for Airport Affairs at International Airlines Group (IAG), said airlines are facing an environment where the winter 2026-27 season is yet to be finalized because of the uncertainty.
“Everybody knows that the fuel has doubled in price in a very short time frame,” Cortada said. “At IAG, we have remained very resilient—while others have taken short-term reactions, we are investing in our current network—but there is a level of scrutiny ... that was not expected at the beginning of 2026.”
She added: “Under normal circumstances, we would be here [at Routes Europe] discussing the summer 2027 network. We are now in a position where winter 2026 is not even close, so that leaves planning teams in a very difficult situation.”
Cortada said the airline group—which includes carriers such as British Airways and Iberia—was taking a measured and disciplined approach. She added that IAG’s annual fuel bill is normally between $7 billion and $7.4 billion and warned that the impact of higher prices is substantial even with hedging in place.
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Montserrat Barriga, director general of the European Regions Airline Association (ERA), said the fuel crisis is compounding existing structural challenges that have not been resolved since the pandemic.
“We haven’t forgotten about the supply chain,” Barriga said. “The supply chain is still a mess.” She added that labor shortages and environmental regulations are also placing pressure on operators.
Barriga said airlines remain reluctant to make major investment decisions because of the uncertainty. “I don’t see anybody wanting to take bold decisions, make huge investments, and planning for larger fleet at this point of time, so uncertainty is really the name of the game,” she said.
Despite the uncertainty, panelists said underlying travel demand across Europe remains strong. Barriga said ERA members continue to expect growth in regional aviation demand, particularly to secondary and leisure destinations.
“People want to travel,” Barriga said. “They want to travel to remote places. They don’t necessarily want to be on the same hubs anymore.” However, she cautioned that consolidation across the sector is likely. “There will be fewer airlines [coming out of the crisis],” Barriga said.
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