Growth in International Airline Seat Volumes Outpacing Domestic Expansion, says OAG

The global market for international airline seats will increase significantly in November, while domestic seat capacity will fare less well, according to OAG, a trusted source for aviation information and analytical services. OAG’s FACTS (Frequency and Capacity Trend Statistics) report for November 2013 shows a global net increase of 10.8 million international seats compared to November 2012 (an increase of 5.5 per cent).

This figure reflects the addition of 11.8 million seats across 48 country markets (64 per cent of total markets); only 16 country markets will see lower volumes (a combined reduction of 900,000 seats). As a region, Asia-Pacific will account for the greatest increase, led by Thailand and China, which will both add almost one million international seats this month. However, as a country, the UAE will be the global leader, with 1.2 million extra international seats offered.

In contrast, the global market for domestic seats will see a net increase of only 8.1 million seats (growth of 4.2 per cent versus November 2012). While carriers will offer 10 million new domestic seats in the month compared to November 2012, this increase is partly offset by a reduction of 1.9 million seats across certain regions, reports OAG.

Decreases are particularly marked in western Europe, where nearly three quarters of markets will see domestic seat capacity fall by an average 13 per cent. Globally, Spain will see the greatest reduction in domestic seats this month, while Italy, France and the UK will also see notable reductions. In contrast, strong growth in Asian markets will see 7.2 million extra domestic seats operated, with China alone adding 3.7 million extra seats (a rise of 11 per cent), the report highlights.

“The Asia-Pacific region continues a well-established pattern in driving growth in both domestic and international seat capacity. In contrast, the picture in Europe is more mixed: Spain, Italy, France and the UK – four of the five largest markets – will see domestic seat volumes decline, although each will also see an increase in international seats,” said John Grant, executive vice president, OAG, “This situation appears to reflect continued economic challenges in Europe and the importance of exports for economic recovery.”

Two markets on the eastern fringes of Europe, however, the Russian Federation and Turkey, are resisting the wider European trend, according to OAG. As a consequence of economic growth, both nations are experiencing sustained and rapid domestic capacity increases, between them offering 1.5 million more seats this month than in November 2012. Turkey’s domestic capacity will be 29 per cent higher (an increase of 780,000 seats), while the Russian Federation will see an extra 770,000 domestic seats this month.

“The challenges facing Europe’s more mature economies are thrown into sharp relief by the rapid development of markets such as Turkey and Russia. Turkey’s economy is enjoying reasonable growth and its population is flying in greater numbers than ever before. Turkish Airlines and its low-cost competitor Pegasus are doing a good job in meeting this demand, with the latter airline now one of the fastest-growing and most profitable operators in Europe,” added Grant.

Globally, carriers will add almost 15 million domestic and international seats this month, an increase of five per cent over November 2012. With flight numbers only increasing by two per cent in the period, this growth also reveals an increase in average aircraft size.