This article is published in Air Transport World part of Aviation Week Intelligence Network (AWIN), and is complimentary through Dec 14, 2025. For information on becoming an AWIN Member to access more content like this, click here.
With the air transport industry, it’s dangerous to forecast; remember all those bullish predictions for record passenger numbers and profits to be seen in 2020? The only thing that doesn’t change for airlines is change.
Still, as 2025 draws to a close, it’s worth reflecting on some key lessons to be learned for airline leaders that will likely continue to factor in their 2026 planning.
1. Safety in commercial air transport is not a given; it requires constant vigilance and the highest priority. Two fatal crashes—of an Air India Boeing 787 and the collision near Reagan Washington National Airport between a US Army helicopter and an American Airlines Bombardier CRJ700 regional jet—were shocking reminders that catastrophes can still happen, even with modern jets and close to major airports.
2. The supply chain is at least as vulnerable as airlines, maybe more so. On the engine side, new technology is outpacing dependability. But even as the aircraft and engine OEMs shore up production and deliveries, the scars run deep into the providers on which they depend. Next year may show improvements, but this crisis is still years away from full recovery.
3. Aviation sustainability will need to be redefined. With a dire shortage of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and no viable near-term technology solutions, the industry’s 2050 carbon net zero goal looks unachievable. The fault lies not with the airlines, but with governments and oil companies that are essential to SAF production but are failing or ignoring their responsibilities.
4. People want to fly. Another wrong forecast, thankfully, was that demand for air travel would decline permanently after the COVID crisis. We were all supposed to enjoy “visiting” family, friends and exotic destinations virtually from our homes. Business meetings and conferences would similarly become virtual events. But traffic, first for leisure and now for business, has surged back. Conferences are booming. New destinations are being discovered for real. Airlines, airports and air traffic management systems worldwide must be ready (but probably won’t be).
5. Politics will be a constant meddler in aviation, for good or bad. And airlines can do little about that other than be adaptable.
6. Size matters. Airline consolidation will continue because almost all need scale to compete in today’s ecosystem. Those that are small but have a niche must excel and innovate to stay viable, and there are still no guarantees. Large or small, what worked 10 years ago likely doesn’t work anymore.
May 2026 be good to you all.
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