Willie Walsh, IATA Director General and the next CEO of IndiGo, has been quoted as saying that the current situation with the conflict in the Middle East is “not similar to COVID-19.”
While on a global scale Walsh is correct, for Middle Eastern operators there is a distinct similarity between the events. This week’s Flight Friday looks at these carriers’ first quarter utilization for 2020 and 2026.
Back in 2020, Middle Eastern operator flights dropped 46% between January 2020 and March 2020, with flight hours dropping 41% in the same period. This was as the world came to acknowledge the spread of COVID-19, borders began to close and travel was restricted. With the Gulf carriers being major connector carriers, the pandemic hit very hard; it took until late in the first quarter of 2023 for a full recovery.
In 2026, those Middle Eastern operators have again seen a drop in utilization, but this time due to the Iran war. With the number of flights performed in January 2026 being 13% higher than in 2020, the drop in utilization is even more pronounced, with a drop of 55% between January and March, with a similar corresponding drop in flight hours.
Globally, the impact of the conflict will not be fully understood until there is a period of calm in the region; it is too early to make long term impact statements. But for Middle Eastern operators the impact of the Iran war has had a similar effect as the COVID pandemic.
This data was put together using Aviation Week’s Tracked Aircraft Utilization database.
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