Rolls-Royce Maintains Buoyant 2026 Outlook Despite Middle East Uncertainty

Rolls-Royce says it remains on track to maintain its full-year profit guidance of around $5.5 billion or more, despite uncertainty over the impact of the Iran war on its commercial business.

Commenting to shareholders at the company’s annual general meeting April 30, Rolls-Royce CEO Tufan Erginbilgic said while the conflict in the Middle East has created uncertainty, “we expect to fully mitigate the current financial impact of the disruption to our business.”

Buoyed by what Erginbilgic describes as a “strong start to the year driven by our transformation and self-help,” Rolls-Royce continues to see renewed growth in its large civil engine and business aviation aftermarket—key revenue sectors that were badly impacted by the pandemic and its aftermath.

The company says flight hours on its large engines grew by 5% to 115% of 2019 levels in the first three months of 2026. For the full year, Rolls expects this number to exceed 2019 levels by between 115% and 120% and says flight hours of Trent XWB engines in the Middle East “have fully recovered to pre-conflict levels.”

Although there has been industry speculation that rising fuel prices might accelerate the grounding of older Rolls-powered aircraft, particularly the Airbus A330, the engine maker says it “does not expect a change in the retirement profile of the Trent 700.” The majority of the A330ceo is contracted “up to the 2030s,” it added.

Large engine deliveries, mainly in support of increasing A330neo and A350 production, were up 18% year-over-year in the first quarter while large engine shop visits were up 12% over the same period. As part of its drive to improve time on wing for Trent 1000 TEN-powered Boeing 787 operators, Rolls says more than a third of the fleet has now been upgraded to Trent 1000 XE standard with an improved high-pressure turbine blade design.

Building on efforts to incorporate the improved blade into new and existing Trent 7000 and 1000 engines, Rolls is expanding MRO capacity in Germany, Singapore and the UK to expedite the upgrades. Additional capacity also is underway in Istanbul where Turkish Technic is developing an MRO center designed to support up to 200 shop visits per year. The site is expected to be operational by the end of 2027, Rolls said.

Highlighting major new business deals in the quarter, Rolls-Royce also noted orders for 40 Trent XWB-97s for Atlas Worldwide as part of the cargo airline’s surprise order for 20 A350F freighters, as well as 30 Trent XWB-84 EPs and 32 Trent 7000s for Delta Air Lines.

The company also flagged a small but significant batch of Trent 1000 XE orders for eight 787s which it said, “provide clear evidence that our sustained investment in durability improvements has repositioned the Trent 1000 XE as a competitive, order winning engine, while continuing to benefit from our good aftermarket services offering.”

Engines for three of the 787s are destined for LATAM Airlines in an order revealed by Rolls-Royce on April 29. Details of the remaining orders are not yet being released, the engine maker said.