2026 Airliner Deliveries To Be Short Of 2018, Aviation Week Forecasts

Despite better production rates this year, expected deliveries of commercial aircraft from Airbus and Boeing in 2026 are still expected to trail 2018's total by 4%, according to Aviation Week’s newly released 2027 Commercial Fleet and MRO Forecast.

The forecast was previewed Oct. 15 on a webinar with Aviation Week data managers and editors. It comes as the leading airframers recently published September delivery results, showing a widening gap in meeting their respective end-of-year goals, especially in regard to delivering cash-cow narrowbodies. Boeing is likely to face questions from financial analysts when it reports third-quarter results on Oct. 27.

The Aviation Week outlook forecasts 1,686 commercial aircraft deliveries by the end of 2026. That is more than any year since 2019, but the figure still trails the 1,753 delivered in 2018. Production rates as high as those Airbus and Boeing reached in 2018 now are not expected to be hit again until 2027 “at the earliest.”

Boeing delivered 57 aircraft in September, taking the company’s tally so far this year to 475, a year-over-year increase of 8%, according to data the airframer released Oct. 13. Forty-three of the month’s deliveries were 737s. Overall, Boeing has now delivered 363 narrowbody twinjets through the first three quarters, the most year-to-date deliveries through September since the start of the MAX program.

Still, Boeing previously indicated it expected almost 500 narrowbodies delivered this year, meaning it needs to hand over 137 in the last quarter at an average production rate of more than 45 737s a month. Wall Street has been souring lately on the even more prolonged ramp-up, with the next rate level of a stable 47 new 737s clearly a 2027 goal. The company’s stock price is down 15% year to date, while the S&P 500 is up 13%.

“Boeing has been clear that its ability to stabilize [a production rate of 47 aircraft per month] on the 737 MAX has taken longer than expected, but we believe investors are looking for a step-up in MAX deliveries [in the fourth quarter of 2026],” analysts at RBC Capital Markets said Oct. 13. “We can appreciate that the company continues to build inventory of the -7 and -10 variants, and we believe we are unlikely to see a significant step-up in deliveries until the -10 is certified.”

In parallel, the trajectory to support Airbus’ planned monthly production rate of 70 to 75 A320neo-family aircraft “still needs to be refined” with RTX’s Pratt & Whitney, Airbus managers said to reporters Oct. 14.

Airbus delivered 72 aircraft in September, up 8% year to date. But on a quarter-over-quarter basis, Airbus's third-quarter deliveries of 196 aircraft fell “slightly short” of equivalent 2025 results by 2.5% and were 8.7% below investors’ consensus estimates of 213 aircraft, according to the RBC analysts. Year to date, the European OEM has delivered 547 aircraft to 84 customers.

Airbus' deliveries historically have been weighted towards the fourth quarter of each year—from 2010 to 2025, the last quarter was historically responsible for 33% of total annual deliveries, the analysts said. So to reach its midpoint target of 870 aircraft delivered this year, Airbus will need to hand over another 323 aircraft this year for an average of 108 aircraft per month. Those 323 deliveries would make up 37% of the annual delivery guide of 870 aircraft, they noted Oct. 8.

“This cadence represents a 13% increase from fourth-quarter 2025, which may be a point of focus for investors looking towards the 2026 delivery guide,” the RBC analysts said. Even despite the dramatic increase necessary in the current fourth quarter, the analysts think Airbus can achieve it, although they are watching for signs of significant ramping-up in October and November instead of leaving it mostly for December.

Still, as the Aviation Week forecast shows, it is a far cry from last decade. Deliveries in 2018 were 1,792 when Embraer, Comac and others were included in the tally. In 2027, according to the Aviation Week forecast, the tally should hit 1,860. It could reach 2,000 deliveries in 2028 and peak in 2032 with around 2,250, then plateau through 2036.

Future deliveries

Across 2027-36, North America will take the most of new deliveries, at 20% of the total. But Asia-Pacific and western Europe will be right behind at 19% each. India and the Middle East region together both will bring in 10%, respectively. China will follow closely at 9%.

While customers will take more new aircraft, they also are expected to tick up the rate of retiring older airliners. For 2026-35, Aviation Week forecasts an average of 943 aircraft retiring a year, or 2.4% of the fleet. That would be up from 676 aircraft annually, or 2.3%, over 2015-25. Retirement projections peak in 2031. The latest forecast notes that used spare parts and green-time engines may flood aftermarket markets for popular legacy types, depressing pricing.

Regarding maintenance, repair and overhaul, the Aviation Week forecast sees $1.7 trillion in MRO demand over 2027-36. Combined, all categories of MRO—e.g., parts and engines— will see a 3.3% compound annual growth rate, but engines alone will see 4.1% (not including inflation). Indeed, engine MRO will command 53% of the total spend, followed by components at 21%.

The MRO upsurge remains a formidable supercycle. As the Aviation Week forecast shows, MRO demand has increased 100% between 2019 ($73.2 billion) and expected 2027 levels ($146.3 billion), while the fleet changed just 5%. Engine MRO alone between those years will go from $24.3 billion to $75.3 billion.

Said another way, engine MRO next year will be more than the entire combined MRO demand in 2019.