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America’s lead in space has never been bigger: 3,720 satellites and payloads were launched last year, compared with 371 by runner-up China. Most of that is thanks to SpaceX’s partially reusable rocket, the Falcon 9.
But that all could change drastically if China figures out how to stick the landing on its own reusable rocket, a missing technology constraining the nation’s space ambitions.
On the other side of that bottleneck is a vast terrestrial electronics industry that can be, and is being, repurposed by China to flood space with satellites.
In the final days of December, Chinese companies unveiled plans to launch more than 200,000 satellites, according to filings with the International Telecommunication Union. That indicates that China expects one or more of its roughly dozen reusable rockets in development will soon match its space ambitions.
If China can gain cheaper and faster access to space, and swamp low Earth orbit (LEO) with inexpensive satellites, America stands to lose one of its fastest-growing industries—a rare example in manufacturing where the U.S. remains ahead of the world.
Such a change could have geopolitical consequences, too, undercutting what is left of U.S. soft power: the popular image of America as the innovator that brings internet to even the remotest, poorest people of the world. The military balance of power in space could shift, as satellite technologies honed for commercial purposes and manufactured en masse could be repurposed for military purposes, much as has been done with the county’s drones.
China might have an inherent advantage building megaconstellations in LEO, where Earth’s magnetosphere reduces radiation exposure for satellites using non-radiation-hardened electronics.
That phenomenon has allowed SpaceX’s Starlink and Amazon Leo internet constellations to leverage cheaper terrestrial electronics and could enable Chinese entities to do the same, albeit at a far greater volume and even lower price, says Altynay Junusova, an analyst with German-funded think tank Mercator Institute for China Studies who coauthored a report on Beijing’s dual-use space-based internet ambitions. “When China wants to do something at scale, it’s usually very low cost, which is really hard to compete with for European and American players,” she tells Aviation Week.
Historically, China has used scale and low prices to undercut foreign competition and cement itself as a dominant producer of goods, such as electronics, electric vehicles, solar panels, wind turbines and batteries.
Because of the anarchic nature of space—no global authority assigns operating locations in LEO—first movers can gain a de facto advantage. China Daily, operated by the Chinese Communist Party propaganda department, confirmed that strategy in a January editorial defending the country’s plans to orbit hundreds of thousands of satellites.
“Low-Earth-orbit slots are finite, nonrenewable and increasingly scarce,” the party outlet stated. “Once they are occupied or effectively locked by early movers, latecomers face severe constraints on their ability to deploy satellite systems critical for communications, navigation, remote-sensing and digital services.”
This is troubling because China has a history of abusing the international commons. For example, its fishing fleet has been documented disabling transponders and illegally fishing in other countries’ waters. With regard to space, China has been criticized for creating debris through destructive antisatellite tests and for poor coordination—or none at all—with other satellite operators ahead of close approaches.
Without new international agreements, Chinese operators might make a grab for LEO slots, denying the U.S. and other countries the opportunity to use the real estate.
“The important thing is for the U.S. to lead by example,” says Mike Gold, a former NASA official who during the first Trump administration oversaw the drafting of the Artemis Accords, a U.S.-led nonbinding agreement among 67 nations on principles for safe and peaceful operations on and around celestial bodies, such as the Moon, Mars and asteroids—areas of potential rival settlement and colonization. Gold, now president of Redwire Space, says there is an opportunity to expand the Artemis Accords to new regions of space, including LEO.
The need for greater accord in space comes as U.S. President Donald Trump in January directed federal agencies to withdraw from 66 international organizations and U.N. entities that his administration deemed “contrary to the interests of the United States,” including some coordinating use of international commons like the atmosphere and oceans.
The world still has a lot of goodwill for U.S. leadership in space, boosted recently by the success of the Artemis II mission around the Moon. Whether the U.S. can have it both ways—insisting on America First on Earth while preaching international cooperation in space—remains to be seen.
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