Podcast: Can Business Aviation And Sustainability Co-Exist?

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Joe Anselmo:

Welcome to the Check 6 podcast, coming to you this week from the NBAA BACE business aviation show in Las Vegas. I'm Joe Anselmo, Aviation Week's editorial director, and joining me to talk about the state of the industry as this year's show kicks off are Lee Ann Shay, our executive editor for business aviation, and senior editor, Guy Norris.

Let's start off by talking about the elephant in the room, sustainability. This is an industry that underpins a lot of economic activity, but its critics seize on the fact that it also ferries a lot of business executives, celebrities, and rich people on private flights. Guy, can business aviation and sustainability coexist?

Guy Norris:

Well, of course that's the number one question here, Joe, isn't it? I mean, as everybody in this industry here at NBAA always points out, they tend to be a very easy target for the very reasons you're mentioning. They seem to be an exclusive small provider of services to a very niche audience, and yet, of course, they’re seen, as we saw at EBACE in Geneva, as a target for protest. Of course, who can forget the scenes, unprecedented that they were, at the show in May when protestors surged in over the fence, tied themselves to nose legs, and in fact scared off Gulfstream so much that they're not even at this show, which is incredible.

So, yes, it's an easy target and they know it, and they're doing their best to try and really improve what is essentially an optics problem. Because when you look at the numbers, the hard truth is that even if business aviation becomes the first to achieve net-zero emissions, in the big scheme of things, it hardly makes a difference. Now anybody who studies the numbers knows that, but you can't tell the person in the street that. All they see is a gas guzzling private jet on its way and emitting out-of-proportion emissions. So, they've got this image problem, they know they need to deal with it, and it's a huge issue.

Underpinning all this, however, is the fact that they are doing their best already to do some amazing technological, sustainment-aimed objectives. One of the easiest ones, and the first ones that they're all doing is proving that they can operate on 100% sustainable aviation fuel, or SAFs. Even just last week, in fact, at this show, Embraer announced that they ran the Embraer Praetor 600 and I think the 300 on 100% SAF.

So obviously those are the sort of things where early initiatives are being made. But sort of digging deeper, it's also interesting that the business itself, from a sort of aerodynamic and propulsion perspective is starting to sit up and take notice of this change. I'll give you a couple of examples. Bombardier has just updated us on flying the EcoJet. They've released the first pictures of this, an 18-foot wingspan, blended wing body model that's been flying somewhere in secret in North America. They won't say where. But it shows the willingness of the industry to really go the extra mile, I think, to try and change this image.

The other thing is, and I'm just sort of wrapping up on the technology side, is that ironically, two of the industry's best engines, the latest engines, the GE Passport, which powers the high-end Global models and Rolls-Royce's Pearl, which is a big power unit in itself in this industry, they're both being used for hydrogen research as part of the European Union's Clean Aviation program. So, I mean, there's little chance, let's be honest, that hydrogen will actually feature in business aviation anytime soon. But that's ironic, isn't it, that two of the industry's leading engines are in fact pioneering that fuel.

Lee Ann Shay:

And can I jump in on the technology end? Business aviation really has been an incubator for technological developments, whether it be the use of GPS or winglets, the list goes on and on. And business aviation, back to your point about the numbers, it's a small percentage of the overall aviation. But today at NBAA, NBAA along with eight other aviation associations is releasing a new campaign called “Climbing Fast.” Similar to “No Plane No Gain” that started about 30 years ago that really showed how business aviation used as an essential tool for corporations, for humanitarian, et cetera.

“Climbing Fast” is designed to educate policymakers and opinion makers on what the industry is doing to get to its net-zero goal by 2050. So will it make a big difference to the protestors? Probably not, but this is aimed at the policymakers to indeed show that the industry is uniting on this advocacy campaign and it's climbing fast and it's doing a lot of things. So they will be soon launching a microsite where people can find a lot of facts and figures to hopefully get the industry talking together on a fact-based basis to show that it's maybe not the total fat cat image that it can be portrayed.

Joe Anselmo:

Guys, I wanted to talk about the mood of the industry as the show opens. It's underpinned by some massive new orders, particularly by NetJets recently. They're guaranteed to keep production humming for years, and yet, it's constrained at how fast it can grow because of the supply chain issues. And I was at a newsmakers luncheon NBAA hosted this afternoon, and Ron Epstein from Bank of America said, that's not necessarily a bad thing, all these supply chain and workforce problems, because it limits the industry from overheating and it actually extends the upturn, makes it go on longer, and it allows the manufacturers to maintain their prices. They're not in such hyper-competition that they're gutting their prices.

Lee Ann Shay:

I think those are really great points, and when the industry says that it's normalizing, I would argue that this is really not normalizing, because business aviation more than other segments has had more of a rollercoaster up and down in the good and the bad times. So I think this maybe new normal, to your point, is a good thing. And also with the workforce and the supply chain constraints across the whole aviation industry, even if the business aviation industry wanted to quickly ramp up more than it's doing now, the reality is it just can't happen. And I think they're also using a little bit more disciplined tactics not to do that.

Guy Norris:

And of course when we look at the numbers per se, even though some of the forecasts out there are maybe not as buoyant as perhaps people would like them to be, they're still pretty big numbers. Honeywell, for example, just issued its 10-year forecast the other night, and a few of us were there, 8,500 new business jets worth $278 billion over the next 10 years. I mean, in anybody's book, that's still a lot of business. In fact, 2024, if everybody agrees to the forecast as they see it, it'll look like a delivery profile of, I think, 800 aircraft for the first time since 2019 in one year. Those are the sort of numbers, which as you said, Joe, it's not stellar, but it's solid. And it probably fits in with what Ron was saying in terms of a constrained environment, but solid growth.

Lee Ann Shay:

And the newer aircraft too helped deliver the efficiencies that cut emissions. So, the new aircraft actually do help.

Guy Norris:

Right, exactly.

Joe Anselmo:

One of the things that was fun is the day before the show opens, there's a lot of press conferences. It feels like the show is open, except it actually hasn't quite yet. But, Guy, Bombardier today gave us a peek at the future. You want to tell us about that?

Guy Norris:

Yeah, well, obviously this is the EcoJet that we just briefly mentioned. But I mean, just to remind people, everybody knows good old tube and wing. That's what the business has been built on since Day One. So Bombardier is really pushing the boat out there. They're trying to demonstrate technologically that something that goes away from that shape, which is really, frankly, the only way that anybody's going to really meet this net-zero emissions target of 2050, is feasible for a smaller airframe. You remember JetZero, the startup in California announced earlier this year that it's going to launch a full-scale demonstrator of a blended wing body for the Air Force. Well, imagine shrinking that down to a business jet size. And that's what really Bombardier is trying to do.

What they've done so far is prove that an 18-foot span version can fly and be handled safely. It's all autonomous, of course, or at least remotely controlled. The difference between the Bombardier BWB, which they showed images of for the first time here today, and the JetZero one is that it's got a U-shaped tail, an individual or independent tail surface, whereas the JetZero BWBs, of course, literally, as I say, totally blended wing body and tailless with the exception of maybe some verticals. But anyway, the fact is that Bombardier is really trying to push this as a concept. They think it's got a lot of runway ahead and intriguingly because it's that compact shape, blended with a relatively high aspect ratio wing adjoint to this blended fuselage, that there's internal volume there potentially for hybrid electric or hydrogen-based fuel systems in the future, propulsion systems in the future.

Joe Anselmo:

So a couple of the key things we noted as we head toward the show, as Guy noted early on, Gulfstream's not here, Dassault has a very muted presence. They didn't bring-

Guy Norris:

The 6X.

Joe Anselmo:

... the 6X to this very important show. What's going on?

Guy Norris:

Yeah, well, I mean, I don't know. Have you talked to Dassault, Lee Ann? No, you haven't.

Lee Ann Shay:

I have not yet.

Guy Norris:

It's going to be an interesting question. I mean, perhaps it's just so early in the program, they want to catch up. They don't want to allocate resources to flying all the way over here to present it in static. I don't know. But, boy, what a shame. I'd love to have seen it in real life. We'll have to go to France or something.

Lee Ann Shay:

But I think we should mention that there's still a lot of aircraft out at the static display. Guy, you and I were in Geneva at EBACE and we saw what happened there with the protestors. So I think NBAA has done a really good job working with law enforcement in the different companies that it does and the exhibitors to ensure that aircraft are safe out there.

Guy Norris:

That's right. Lee Ann's right. And I think, okay, there is a muted present by some of them, but the others are here in force and I think anybody who'd be interested to come out wouldn't be disappointed at the static display at Henderson.

Lee Ann Shay:

And I've got to say, Volocopter is going to be flying its 2X, it's a two-seat aircraft that is under certification right now. It's the prototype to the VoloCity that hopefully will be flying next year at the Paris Olympics if it gets certified mid 2024, which it's tight. It's a really tight schedule, but they're still hopeful that they'll make it. But the 2X will be flying.

Guy Norris:

Fantastic. EVTOLs at NBAA, what next?

Lee Ann Shay:

Exactly.

Joe Anselmo:

Very cool stuff. And in terms of security, I noted this is the most secure NBAA show I've been to. Just here at the convention center, you have to show your badge, which has your picture on it, and then you still have to show a photo ID just to get in. So, they really are scrutinizing this place to try to keep troublemakers out.

We're about to launch into a busy show. So ,for ongoing coverage of that busy show, you can download our fantastic Show News app, go to the App Store on your phone and search Aviation Week Show News, that's Aviation Week Show News, and you can download the app and the free content.

And at the end of the show, tune into our BCA Business Aviation Podcast where our team will be back to talk about the highlights that they saw this week. That podcast can be found on your app of choice. That is a wrap for this Check 6 podcast. Special thanks to our onsite podcast engineer, Jeremy Kariuki, and to our podcast editor in London, Guy Ferneyhough. Have a great week and stay safe.

Sponsor Message:

BAE Systems is enabling the transformation of air travel. Find us during NBAA at booth N3213 to learn about the next generation of electric aviation. Energizing the future of flight with BAE Systems.