A new forecast by JetNet IQ predicts demand for 8,436 new business jets valued at $223 billion at list prices for the 10 years from 2017 to 2026. However, new business jet deliveries are expected to decrease for the next two years before trending upward, according to Rolland Vincent, founder and director of JetNet iQ Summit.

Speaking at the seventh annual summit held in New York on Sept. 6, Vincent said that by 2019 “pent-up demand” and market arrival of new aircraft models should begin to reverse the decline. In addition, the forecast predicts delivery of 4,235 new turboprops valued at $19 billion for the 10-year period. It estimates 60% of the deliveries over the next 10 years will go to North America, followed by 14% of deliveries to Europe, 11% to Latin America and the Caribbean, and 11% to Asia. The world’s business jet fleet is expected to grow by 2.2% compound annual growth rate to 26,589 aircraft by the end of 2026, including personal jets, up 25% from 21,322 at the end of 2016. The turboprop fleet is expected to grow 10% from 15,237 aircraft to 16,763 aircraft by the end of 2026, Vincent said.

Meanwhile, the percentage of used business jets on the market is at its lowest level in more than nine years, said Paul Cardarelli, JetNet’s vice president of sales. Of the 21,870 aircraft in operation worldwide, about 10.5% are for sale. At the same time, utilization is up, which is good news, Cardarelli said. And retirements of aircraft are expected to rise. The used market is looking better, particularly because the number of young aircraft on the market is down about 20% over the past year and down 60-70% from peak levels, said David Strauss, UBS Investment Bank managing director of U.S. Aerospace and Defense. Used pricing for the youngest aircraft is stabilizing, “or at least going down in a more measured pace.”

Several attendees said that the biggest challenge to the industry is the depressed residual values of used aircraft, preventing owners from trading in their aircraft for new models.