Magnetic Group forecasts a pivotal shift in the aircraft engine market, with key trends signaling an approaching inflection point.
According to the company’s data, populations of CFM International CFM56-5B and Leap-1A engines are expected to align at approximately 6,500 each by the end of 2027, marking a notable milestone. A similar convergence is projected by 2030 for CFM56-7B and Leap-1B engines, with both reaching around 10,500 units in operation.
Both the CFM56-5B and -7B are anticipated to follow a stable and predictable retirement trajectory, with consistent retirement rates over time. This trend is particularly significant for asset owners currently holding large inventories of these engines. From 2030-35, Airbus A320neo deliveries are expected to increasingly favor the Leap engine, with over 62% of deliveries slated to feature this option.
Magnetic Group Chief Investment Officer and Magnetic Leasing CEO Alex Vella highlight this shift as a core reason the gap between the Leap-1A and -1B is not expected to widen as dramatically as with earlier-generation engines. Boeing exclusively equips its 737 MAX aircraft with the Leap-1B, while Airbus positions the Leap engine in direct competition with the Pratt & Whitney PW1100 geared turbofan, the successor to the IAE V2500.
Vella suggests that the market is on the cusp of a major turning point. “Fleet forecast data clearly shows key inflection points are approaching,” he says, citing several market forces shaping today’s landscape. Among them: a lack of new-technology aircraft due to post-pandemic production constraints, challenges associated with newer engines, and a strong rebound in passenger demand to pre-pandemic levels.
“These factors have driven increased investment in previous-generation aircraft, which remain highly liquid,” Vella says. “As a result, retirements have slowed, creating a shortage of [used serviceable material] and limiting the supply of spare engines for lease.”
This scarcity has had ripple effects across the industry, contributing to rising shop visit costs, higher lease rates and elevated trading values. The combination of reduced time-on-wing for newer engines, surging demand and slower aircraft deliveries has effectively extended the life-cycle of existing engine types.
Magnetic forecasts that by the end of 2027, the frequency of hospital shop visits on the CFM56 will match that of core performance restoration events. By 2030, quick-turn shop visits are expected to account for 60% of all events, with this share projected to grow by 3-4% annually beyond that point.
Vella points out a compelling market dynamic: most unserviceable engines are currently valued at levels where rebuilding them is more cost-effective than parting them out. “This phenomenon raises a rhetorical question,” he says. “Does it make sense for everyone to rebuild these engines at such high costs? If so, to what standard?”
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