In less than 15 months, the string of Russian strategic defeats in Ukraine has included the sinking of the Moskva cruiser, the bombing of the Kerch Strait Bridge, routs of armies in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson, and finally, a successful intercept of the Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM). 

Although Western analysts have long suspected the Kinzhal’s capabilities are overhyped, few weapons systems had been unveiled by the Kremlin with such grandiosity, even during its pre-invasion era swagger. 

President Vladimir Putin described the Kinzhal as the “most important” of the six modern weapon systems he revealed in a Kremlin speech on March 1, 2018. When launched from a MiG-31K, the Kinzhal could come screaming in at Mach 10, dodging intercept attempts even in the most heavily defended airspace, he said.

This combination of speed and agility “allows it to reliably overcome all existing, and, I think, promising anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems,” Putin said. “We call this system ‘Kinzhal,’” which is the Russian word for “dagger.” 

In retrospect, it seems the Kinzhal specifically could only reliably overcome all Soviet-era air defense systems, such as interceptor missiles fired by the S-300P, S-300V and Buk launchers in the Ukrainian inventory. According to Russian and Ukrainian claims, Mikoyan MiG-31K fighters had launched a total of nine Kinhzal missiles at Ukraine from March 2022 to March 2023. In stark contrast to the thousands of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and one-way attack missiles launched by Russia during that period, the Kinzhal attacks had a 100% success rate. 

The only mystery, in fact, was why Russia had not used a Kinzhal barrage to cripple Ukraine’s air defense complex and command-and-control centers at the beginning of the war. 

The Kinzhal’s effectiveness, however, ended on May 4, Ukrainian officials say. The first Patriot air defense system to become operational in Ukraine, which was donated a month ago by Germany, scored a direct hit on an incoming Kinzhal, 

Lt. Gen. Mykola Oleschuk, the Ukrainian air force commander, confirmed that the Patriot system scored the kill, but noted that further details would be provided “in its own time.”

Since the day that the Kinzhal was named by Putin, its capabilities were questioned. Visibly, it appeared to be a straightforward, air-launched version of the ground-launched Iskander. That implied it was hypersonic and maneuverable, but not in the same way as a new class of hypersonic glide vehicles and cruise missiles now being fielded or in development all over the world. 

Like the Iskander, the Kinzhal was assessed to be an aeroballistic missile. This meant it was launched on a ballistic trajectory. As it approached hypersonic speed during a terminal dive, it could use tail-mounted control fins to maneuver after re-entering the atmosphere. By contrast, a hypersonic glide vehicle or cruise missile travels at the same speed, but can change direction much earlier in its flightpath to make it even harder to shoot down.

Although invulnerable to the Soviet air defenses inherited by Ukraine, the aeroballistic Kinzhal has now proven to be no match for Western air defenses, at least under certain conditions.

Two scientists, David Wright from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Cameron Tracy from Stanford University, published a paper in February that analyzed how a Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC)-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) interceptor could defeat a maneuvering hypersonic missile. Their analysis focused on defense against a hypersonic glide vehicle, but an intercept by a PAC-MSE against an aeroballistic missile in the terminal phase may be similar, except a Kinzhal may lack the same sensors to be able to be aware of an incoming threat and then maneuver to dodge it.

Against an incoming missile at speeds below Mach 9, the PAC-3 MSE has the velocity to make a hit-to-kill intercept over a small region of defended territory, Wright and Tracy concluded. Much would depend on the placement of Ukraine’s only Patriot battery. Advanced warning of Russia’s target before a strike may be necessary.  

In a 2020 article published by the Russian journal “Military Thought,” two Russian experts, Col. A.V. Evsyukov and retired Col. A.L. Khryapin, explained the role of Kinzhal in military operations. According to their analysis, one of the likely targets may have been Ukraine’s first Patriot battery itself, with the Kinzhal assigned to strike the “enemy’s air defense and missile defense systems in the face of its opposition.”