The Bright Spots For Aerospace In 2020 | 2020年航空航天业的亮点
2020年让人难以遗忘。新冠疫情的流行摧毁了航空业，成千上万的航空业工人失去了工作，甚至失去了生命。但是，我们也注意到在这一年里航空业的一些亮点。
Few of us will miss 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic decimated aviation, tens of thousands of industry workers lost their jobs, and some even lost their lives. But now that 2020 is over, it’s a fitting time to be contrarian and note a few of the bright spots amid the carnage.
随着航空业陷入停滞、以及航空航天公司大幅削减研发预算，使航空业更具可持续性的努力将受重大挫折被认为是几乎肯定会发生的事。但是相反的事情反而发生：作为航空业接受救助的条件，政府要求他们对清洁的飞机进行更多的研究。特别值得注意的是，由空客领导的一项大胆的欧洲倡议表示，他们将于2035年开发出氢动力、碳中和的飞机。与此同时，针对混合动力推进和先进空气动力学的研究也在不断发展。 目前尚不清楚哪种技术会首先问世，以及2040年代的飞机将是什么样子，但是2020年可能会成为航空界产生思想火花的一年。
Efforts to make aviation more sustainable looked almost certain to be set back as the industry went into lockdown and aerospace companies made deep cuts to their R&D budgets. But the opposite happened: As a condition for bailouts, governments demanded more research on cleaner airplanes. Of particular note is an audacious European initiative led by Airbus to develop a hydrogen-powered, carbon-neutral aircraft by 2035. Meanwhile, research into hybrid-electric propulsion and cutting-edge aerodynamics continues to advance. It’s not clear which technologies will break out and what the airplanes of the 2040s will look like, but 2020 might turn out to be the year the spark occurred.
当民航和MRO行业陷入困境时，美国和欧洲的强劲军事开支为许多企业提供了缓冲。 国防、情报和国土安全市场也吸引了更多的非传统商业供应商进入，从而扩大了竞争并增强了创新。《航空周刊 – Aviation Week Network》的预测人员确实认为，随着政府处理新冠疫情的援助而承担了大量债务，未来几年的国防预算或将面临压力；但防务支出应保持稳定，直到商业部门实现了良好的复苏。
Robust military spending by the Trump administration and upticks in Western Europe provided a cushion for many when the bottom fell out of commercial aviation and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO). The defense, intelligence and homeland security markets are also attracting more nontraditional commercial suppliers, broadening competition and innovation. Aviation Week’s forecasters do see defense budgets coming under pressure in future years as governments deal with mountains of debt taken on for COVID-19 relief, but spending should remain stable until a recovery in the commercial sector is well underway.
SpaceX向国际空间站发射了载人飞船是2020年的一大亮点，这推动了太空市场的商业化。 同时，传统的政府承包商正在提高自己的竞争能力，以保持与时俱进。例如诺斯罗普格鲁门公司的首台“任务延寿飞行器”（MEV-1）已成功发射，对国际通信卫星901（IS-901）进行了寿命延续服务。
SpaceX’s launch of astronauts to the International Space Station was one highlight of the year, advancing the commercialization of the space market. Meanwhile, traditional government contractors are upping their game to stay relevant. Northrop Grumman, for example, docked its first Mission Extension Vehicle to lengthen the life of a communication satellite whose fuel was nearly depleted.
公务航空在2020年的表现优于商用航空，与这个行业在2008-2009年间的低迷形成了可喜的对比。虽然在国际旅行重新开始之前，高端公务航空市场将继续遭受打击；但是《航空周刊 – Aviation Week Network》的分析师表示，小型公务机的飞行活动已经反弹至疫情之前的水平。
Business aviation’s strength in 2020—it fared better than commercial aviation—was a welcome contrast to its performance in the downturn of 2008-09. The upper end of the market will continue to suffer until international travel reopens, but Aviation Week analysts say flight activity for smaller-cabin aircraft has already rebounded to pre-COVID-19 levels.
航空航天制造和MRO供应商将面临着痛苦的2021年，但是发动机MRO市场在2020年就已经陷入混乱。在需求低迷时期使制造商、供应商和发动机维修厂有能力对新发动机磨合期的修理和技术问题进行升级。对于航空公司来说这是个好消息，由于相同的范式适用于更广泛的航空供应链，而生产量的增加给航空业增加了负担，以至于资金链有断裂的危险。
Aerospace suppliers and MRO providers are facing a painful 2021. But aircraft engine MRO already was in disarray heading into 2020. The downturn has given manufacturers, suppliers and engine shops the ability to catch up on fixes and tech insertions for new engines that were experiencing teething problems. That’s good news for airlines. The same paradigm applies to the wider aerospace supply chain, which was so taxed by production ramp-ups that it was in danger of breaking.
对劳动力短缺的担忧（飞行员、工程师、维护技术人员）已暂时减轻，而一些在商业航空界失业的技术工人在政府承包商的帮助下找到了新的职业。
Concerns about workforce shortages—pilots, engineers, maintenance technicians—have temporarily abated. Some technical workers who lost jobs in the commercial world have found new homes with government contractors.
在停飞20个月后，美国联邦航空局（FAA）在已批准波音737MAX飞机重新投入使用，因此该机的噩梦似乎即将走到尽头。未来的飞机认证将更加严格，并受到国际社会的严格审查，这也有助于增强公众对航空安全的信心。
The end of Boeing’s 737 MAX nightmare seems to be at hand now that the FAA has cleared the aircraft to return to service after a 20-month grounding. Future aircraft certifications will be more rigorous and subject to greater international scrutiny, helping strengthen public confidence in aviation safety.
会议和旅行的关闭迫使我们在《航空周刊 – Aviation Week Network》上寻找新的方法，以联系我们的行业并在各种混乱和不确定性中提供答案。超过75000人实时观看了我们举办的119场网络研讨会，他们有机会与我们的编辑、分析师和行业领导者互动。我们还主办了许多虚拟活动，吸引了378000名与会者。去年，我们的编辑与数十位企业CEO和政府高级官员进行了交谈，在各种平台（在线、印刷版刊物、网络研讨会、视频和播客）上都传达了至关重要的商业情报。
The shutdown of events and travel forced us across the Aviation Week Network to find new ways to connect our industry and provide answers amid all the chaos and uncertainty. Our 119 webinars were viewed live by more than 75,000 people who were given the opportunity to interact with our editors, analysts and industry leaders. We also hosted numerous virtual events that drew a staggering 378,000 attendees. And our editors also spoke with dozens of CEOs and top government officials, conveying vital business intelligence across an array of platforms—online, print, webinars, videos and podcasts.
面对为数十亿人接种疫苗的挑战，航空业的复苏可能要到2021年中期才会开始，而且过程将是艰巨的。但是请记住，第一次世界大战和西班牙流感之后是“咆哮的二十年代”，在那个年代间航空业发生了巨大创新。一百年后的今天，我仍然看好我们行业的潜力。
Given the challenge of vaccinating billions of people, the industry’s recovery probably won’t begin until mid-2021 and will be arduous. But remember that World War I and the Spanish flu were followed by the Roaring Twenties and an era of great innovation in aviation. One hundred years later, I remain bullish on our industry’s potential.
我希望今年能和你当面见面。
I hope to see you—in person—this year.
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