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Manufacturers and suppliers can expect a strong next decade for new business aircraft along with steady demand for aftermarket maintenance and other services as delivery rates increase.
Aviation Week’s just-released 10-year forecast predicts deliveries growing to more than 9,600 business jets and over 2,600 business turboprops for the period 2027-36.
The forecast predicts manufacturers will deliver an average of about 960 business jets per year over the decade, up 36% from an average of about 700 per year from 2015-26, according to Aviation Week Intelligence Network’s 2027 Business Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast.
Turboprop deliveries, meanwhile, are projected to average more than 260 per year over the coming decade, up from 207 a year over the last 10 years. Forecast deliveries include more than 2,400 single-engine turboprops. Overall, the new delivery market is valued at more than $304 billion over the decade at retail pricing.
The large jet category is riding an updraft in popularity. Large jets, which include large cabin and ultra-long-range variants like Gulfstreams, Globals and Dassault lines, are now on par with medium jet deliveries at just over 2,900. Further by aircraft size segmentation, small jet deliveries are expected to total 3,800, followed by medium-sized jets at just over 2,900, and new bizliners are expected to see only a few, with less than one per forecast year predicted.
The forecast predicts the world’s business aviation fleet (jets and turboprops) will grow from 36,643 in 2027 to 41,136 in 2036, up 12% with retirements over the decade totaling about 7,200 aircraft, led by Cessna Citations, Learjets and King Air 90s.
The expected top turbofan-powered delivery models include the Cirrus Vision Jet, Bombardier Challenger 3500, Pilatus PC-24 and Embraer Phenom 300. Top turboprop models are the Pilatus PC-12 and the Daher TBM 900 series.
The entrance of new models within the legacy lines of aircraft is helping to keep the market strong for new aircraft buyers, and buyers are responding, said Brian Kough, Aviation Week senior director of forecasts and aerospace insights.
“Unmet demand for new products has driven both the OEM backlog higher as well as having a spillover effect on the pre-owned market,” Kough said. “High demand continues for the fastest-growing segments, fractional operators, as well as corporate and private operators.”
In the short term, deliveries are expected to outnumber retirements by nearly a two-to-one ratio, Kough said.
Maintenance, repair and overhaul costs, provider availability and supply chain issues remain concerns, with “capacity desperately needed in these sectors,” he said.
As of Sept. 26, the world’s business aviation fleet included 37,100 aircraft, with 64% of the fleet based in North America, followed by 15% in Latin America, 11% in Europe, 6% in Asia, 3% in Africa and 1% in the Middle East, Aviation Week data show.
For the first nine months of 2026, utilization totaled 6.4 million hours, up 2% compared with the same time a year ago. All aircraft segments are up from a year ago except for multi-engine turboprops, which experienced a 5% decline in flight hours. The largest utilization increase was in the medium-jet segment with flight hours up 5%.
By operator class, fractional ownership operators were the only class to show an increase in flight hours during the first nine months of 2026, with hours up 2.7% compared with a year ago and up 4.5% compared with 2024.
By operator, Flexjet showed the largest increase with utilization up 11% compared with 2025 figures and up 169% compared with the same period in 2019. NetJets, the largest fractional operator with a fleet of 883 aircraft, showed flight hours up 9% during the first nine months of 2026 when compared with the same period in 2025 and up 70% compared with the first nine months of 2019.
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