2020年のMRO市場トップ10予測

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Credit: Gol Aerotech

2020年の民間航空機のアフターマーケットの注目するべき点

1 | M&A: 活発な実施

合併と買収は、OEM販売およびそれ以外の非MRO買付、ならびにプライベート・エクイティ売買といった、あらゆる方面から活発に行われ続けるでしょう。しかし、それほど大規模ではない買収を予想して下さい。なぜなら、簡単なピッキング作業は終わり、残った全ての大規模買収先の評価は高くなっているからです。

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Valuations are high for the remaining sizable acquisition targets. Credit: Eric Piermont/GettyImages

2ロボティクス

ロボティクスは、航空機検査、塗料除去と
非破壊検査といった工程の安全性と正確性の改善に、MRO内で実際に着手し始める予定です。

robotics
Invert Robotics is adding nondestructive functionality to its inspection robots. Credit: Invert Robotics

3ドローン点検

ドローン検査は航空機点検で急増し続けています。2020年に、当局はドローン点検を単独手順として承認するでしょうか?

DRONE
AAR is one of the companies that is trialing drone inspections. Credit: Donecle

4MAX機の衝撃

長期にわたる737 MAXの飛行禁止および生産停止を求める圧力の増加に伴い、Boeing 737 Classics/NGsのCFM56-3/7B—さらにV2500/CFM56-5におけるAirbus A320s—のアフターマーケットに衝撃を与えています。事業者が短期、中期の整備を見送り続けているためです。

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5部品不足

PW1000G-JMといった次世代エンジンは、予定されているアップグレード時に、整備が必要です。そして、従来の航空機は納期遅延のためにオンライン上にとどまっています。そのため、普及しているエンジンタイプ—とりわけFM56とV2500、CF6—のための中古使用可能資材が、2020年になるとさらに不足するでしょう。このことは価格上昇をもたらし、さらなる修理開発もリードします。

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The CFM56 will dominate in-service engine fleets in 2020, with 33% of the market, according to Aviation Week Network’s 2020 Fleet & MRO Forecast. Credit: Aerolus Engine Services

6東南アジア

MRO施設が東南アジアで成長中で、インドネシアのバタム島やタイのウタパオ国際空港、クアラルンプールで新設、拡充され、さらに成長し続けるでしょう。

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A proposed MRO hub at U-Tapao Airport is expected to play a key role in attracting investment to Thailand’s Eastern Economic Corridor project. Credit: Thai Airways

7南米で拡充

航空会社はパートナーを得るため、また自社の保守サービスを拡充するために、投資を進めています。例えば、ブラジルのGOL航空が11月末に新規ビジネスユニットGOL Aerotechを立ち上げました。Azul航空は2020年に格納庫を開設し、自社整備を実施する予定です。Delta航空はLATAMに投資予定です。一方、United航空はAvianca航空に投資を予定しています。Pratt & Whitney社は12月11日、ベロオリゾンテにエンジンのオーバーホールセンターを開設しました。

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GOL Aerotech opened for third-party maintenance services in late November. Credit: Gol

8ビッグデータ

ビッグデータ分析を確実に加速させるために、企業はプラス結果の共有を開始し、当該部門の評価を実証し、企業がデータを共有すべき理由を示す必要があります。

Big Data
Big data analytics still draws debate in the aviation aftermarket about data ownership and skepticism about data sharing. Credit: Tonefotografia/Getty Images

9スローダンス

ODAが規模を縮小した場合、規制に触れ、FAA承認に潜在的な行き詰まりが生じることから、承認に要する時間の長期化が予想されます。

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The MAX grounding is having a trickle-down effect on FAA regulatory and organization designation authority approvals. Credit: FAA

10「うまくやっていきましょう」

FAAが、刷新された管理についてアメリカ合衆国議会の権限を実行した場合、海外のリペアステーション承認をめぐって対立が勃発するでしょう。

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What to watch for in the civil aviation aftermarket in 2020

1 | M&A: Hot, Hot, Hot

Mergers and acquisitions will continue to be hot from all sides, including OEMs and other non-MROs buying, as well as private equity buying and selling. However, expect few large acquisitions because the easy pickings are gone, and valuations of any remaining sizable acquisition targets are high.

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Valuations are high for the remaining sizable acquisition targets. Credit: Eric Piermont/GettyImages

2Robotics

Robotics are going to start truly taking off within MRO for improving safety and accuracy with tasks such as aircraft inspections, paint removal
and nondestructive testing.

robotics
Invert Robotics is adding nondestructive functionality to its inspection robots. Credit: Invert Robotics

3Drone Inspections

Drone trials will continue to proliferate for aircraft inspections. Could 2020 be the year regulators approve drone inspections as a stand-alone procedure?

DRONE
AAR is one of the companies that is trialing drone inspections. Credit: Donecle

4MAX Impact

With a prolonged 737 MAX grounding and growing pressure on capacity, there will be an impact on the aftermarket for the CFM56-3/7B on Boeing 737 Classics/NGs—and possibly even the V2500/CFM56-5 on Airbus A320s—as operators continue to defer maintenance in the short-to-mid-term.

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5Parts Shortages

Next-gen engines such as the PW1000G-JM will need maintenance on top of scheduled upgrades, and older aircraft are staying online due to delivery delays, so the shortage of used serviceable material for popular engine types—especially CFM56s, V2500s and CF6s—will be even worse in 2020. This will drive prices higher and also lead to more repair development.

engines
The CFM56 will dominate in-service engine fleets in 2020, with 33% of the market, according to Aviation Week Network’s 2020 Fleet & MRO Forecast. Credit: Aerolus Engine Services

6Southeast Asia

MRO facility growth in Southeast Asia will continue, with new or expanded facilities in places like Batam, Indonesia; U-Tapao, Thailand; and Kuala Lumpur.

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A proposed MRO hub at U-Tapao Airport is expected to play a key role in attracting investment to Thailand’s Eastern Economic Corridor project. Credit: Thai Airways

7Latin Expansion

Investment is underway as airlines gain partners and expand in-house maintenance services. For example, Brazil’s GOL launched a new business unit in late November, GOL Aerotech. Azul Airlines will open a hangar in 2020 to bring maintenance in-house. Delta plans to invest in LATAM, while United is doing the same with Avianca. Pratt & Whitney opened an engine overhaul center in Belo Horizonte on Dec. 11.

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GOL Aerotech opened for third-party maintenance services in late November. Credit: Gol

8Big Data

To really accelerate big data analytics, companies need to start sharing more positive outcomes to demonstrate the value of the field and show why companies should consider sharing data.

Big Data
Big data analytics still draws debate in the aviation aftermarket about data ownership and skepticism about data sharing. Credit: Tonefotografia/Getty Images

9Slow Dance

Expect longer approval times for anything a regulator touches and a potential logjam for FAA certification projects if ODA is scaled back.

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The MAX grounding is having a trickle-down effect on FAA regulatory and organization designation authority approvals. Credit: FAA

10'Let’s Just Get Along'

Strife over foreign repair station approvals could erupt if the FAA carries out the U.S. Congress’ mandate for revamped oversight.

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