三月的飞机交付：有迹象表明未来会比较麻烦

国际航空运输协会（IATA）在其最新COVID-19相关更新中估计，航空业第二季度的投资支出将从危机前计划的170亿美元降至基本为零。

In one of its latest COVID-19-related updates IATA estimated that the airline industry will reduce its second quarter investment spending from $17 billion planned in pre-crisis days to essentially zero. 

航空公司尽可能推迟或取消交货，以保护现金流。

Airlines defer or cancel deliveries wherever they can to protect cash.

但飞机制造商显然已经在3月份的冠状病毒危机中感受到了客户的弱点。根据《航空周刊》的机队数据服务，航空公司和出租人只接收了47架飞机，从De Havilland Twin Otter到空客A350-1000。相比之下，1月份为53架，从季节性角度看，这是一个疲软的月份，因为原始设备制造商试图在去年12月生产出所有可能的飞机，以实现交付目标；2月份为79架。当然，这三个月都没有波音737 MAX交付。

But aircraft manufacturers clearly felt the weakness of their customers in the coronavirus crisis already in March. According to Aviation Week Fleet Data Services, airlines and lessors took delivery of just 47 aircraft ranging from the De Havilland Twin Otter to the Airbus A350-1000. That compares to 53 in January, which seasonally is always a weak month as OEMs try to churn out all the aircraft possible in December of the previous year to meet their delivery targets, and to 79 in February. All three months, of course, are absent of Boeing 737 MAX deliveries. 

此前，波音在2019年2月交付了32架737飞机，其中26架是MAX机型。埃塞俄比亚航空公司302号航班坠毁后的第二个月，MAX机型的交付被叫停。

For context, Boeing delivered 32 737s in February 2019, 26 of which were MAXs. Deliveries were halted the following month after the crash of Ethiopian Airlines flight 302.

未来几天，波音和空客将只公布他们的官方数据，包括没有新订单。《航空周刊》数据显示，3月份所有制造商都受到冲击，但受冲击程度各不相同。在本月的工业交付量中，空客占了近三分之二。这家欧洲制造商交付了两架A220、25架A320neo系列飞机（其中9架A321neo非常引人注目）、一架A321和两架A350-900。没有交付A330neos或A380。

Boeing and Airbus will only publish their official figures—including no new orders—in the coming days. Aviation Week data shows that all manufacturers were hit in March, but not evenly. Airbus accounted for almost two thirds of industry deliveries during the month. The European manufacturer handed over two A220s, 25 A320neo family aircraft (among them nine A321neos remarkably), one A321 and two A350-900s. No A330neos or A380s were handed over.

波音在超过一年的时间里无法交付最新一代窄体客机，其商用飞机业务的主要收入来源是787。根据《航空周刊》的数据，客户在3月份收到了8架飞机。波音还交付了三架777和一架767。

Unable to deliver its latest generation narrowbodies for over one year, Boeing’s main revenue producer in the commercial aircraft business was the 787. Customers took delivery of eight aircraft in March according to Aviation Week data. Boeing also delivered three 777s and one 767.

其他制造商也感受到了这场危机。最重要的是，巴西航空工业公司上个月只交付了一台E175，2月份只增加了两台。基里巴斯航空公司和赫尔维蒂克航空公司分别在1月和2月各自己接收了一架E190-E2，而阿祖尔航空公司今年2月只接收了一架E195-E2。

The crisis is also felt by other manufacturers. Most importantly, Embraer delivered a single E175 last month and only two additional units in February. Air Kiribati and Helvetic took one E190-E2 each in January and February respectively while Azul accepted the only E195-E2 this year in February.

ATR在3月份交付了两架ATR72，在1月份交付了另外四架，当时环境还没有那么恶劣。但本季度的6架飞机与正常产量相差甚远。ATR在2019年交付了68架飞机。

ATR delivered two ATR 72s in March and another four in January when the environment was still not as hostile. But the six aircraft for the quarter are a far cry from normal output. ATR delivered 68 aircraft in 2019.

就在几周前，空客首席商务官克里斯蒂安·舍勒（Christian Scherer）在《航空周刊》的租赁行业专题节目中称赞了出租人。他强调说，当航空公司因为财务困难而无法接收飞机时，出租人在危机中起着极其重要的缓冲作用。这一次，令人担忧的早期迹象表明，情况可能有所不同：在3月份交付的47架飞机中，只有9架交付给出租人，其中有3架A320neos、2架A321neos、2架787（其中一架交付给波音金融公司）和2架ATR 72。上周末，Avolon取消了75架尚未确定的波音737 MAX订单，以减少其在航空公司的近中期风险敞口，这也是业内很不希望看到的，这既是个别的决定，也进一步表明未来会比较麻烦。

Just a few weeks ago Airbus chief commercial officer Christian Scherer praised lessors in an Aviation Week feature on the leasing industry. He highlighted that they serve as an extremely important cushion in crises when airlines cannot take delivery of aircraft because they are in financial distress. This time, worrying early signs are that it could be different: Of the 47 aircraft delivered in March, only nine went to lessors—three A320neos, two A321neos, two 787s (one of which went to Boeing Capital) and two ATR 72s. That Avolon late last week canceled an order for 75 yet-unplaced Boeing 737 MAXs to reduce its near- to mid-term exposure to airlines is also highly unwelcome, both as an individual decision and as further sign of trouble ahead. 

这条消息是Jens Flottau在Aviation Daily发表的文章。《Aviation Daily》为关注商业航空的高管提供真知灼见。每天获取航空公司和机场策略、主要航空公司的数据快照、票价数据以及国际覆盖率。点击此处查看有关Aviation Daily更多消息。