发动机MRO预测：宽体机业务下降，流动性服务上升

眼下，COVID-19疫情严重冲击着航空业，这可能导致今年的商用航空MRO市场需求（以美元计）较《航空周刊》在疫情爆发前预测的下降25-30%。据《航空周刊》最新预测，考虑到发动机维修占总维修量的42%这一潜在情况，到2020年，市场需求将从912亿美元降至640至730亿美元。

The COVID-19 pandemic is wreaking havoc on the airline industry, which could result in the commercial aviation MRO market dollar demand declining 25-30% this year, compared to what Aviation Week Network forecasted before the outbreak. This means the market demand will decrease from $91.2 billion to $64-73 billion in 2020, when looking at potential scenarios, with engine maintenance comprising 42% of it, a newly revised Aviation Week forecast projects.

尽管此次新冠肺炎疫情对航空公司和售后服务行业的破坏性可能会远远超过2001年9月11日的美国恐怖袭击、2008年全球金融危机和H1N1猪流感，但集体智慧使航空客运量在零件市场复苏前就开始回升，这与之前的经济干扰因素类似。

Even though the novel coronavirus pandemic will likely be far more devastating to the airline and aftermarket industries than the aftermaths of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the U.S., the 2008 global financial crisis and H1N1 swine flu pandemic, collective wisdom pegs airline traffic to pick up before the aftermarket recovers, similar to previous economic disruptors.

目前约有8000架飞机停飞——约占疫情爆发前现役机群的三分之一。发动机OEM企业在生产和售后方面都遭到重创。

Right now about 8,000 aircraft are parked—about one-third of the pre-pandemic active fleet. Engine OEMs are feeling the pain, on the production and aftermarket sides.

“全球约三分之一的CFM机队由通用电气和赛峰飞机发动机公司提供维修保养服务。两家公司都已采取行动，以应对未来几个月MRO需求的预期下降局面”，通用电气航空/赛峰的合资企业CFM International表示。

 “About one-third of the global CFM fleet is serviced by GE and Safran Aircraft Engines. Both companies have taken action in light of the anticipated reduction in MRO demand over the next several months,” says CFM International, the GE Aviation/Safran joint venture.

由于服务需求下降，通用电气航空公司将暂时解雇一半的美国MRO员工，为期90天，非美国商家预计也会采取类似行动。

GE Aviation is temporarily laying off half of its U.S. MRO workforce for 90 days because of service demand reductions, and similar moves are expected in its non-U.S. shops.

从3月27日起，罗尔斯-罗伊斯关闭了除“必要活动”以外的民用航空设施，为期一周。

Rolls-Royce closed its civil aerospace facilities except for “essential activity” from one week, from March 27.

博恩斯坦的分析师4月2日预测，宽体发动机市场受到的冲击将比窄体发动机市场更严重，因为停飞的波音747、757机型以及较老的空客A330机型根本无法恢复使用。这意味着， Pratt & Whitney 4000、GE CF6-80C2、Rolls-Royce RB211 和Trent 700 等发动机可能面临风险，不过博恩斯坦指出，“非客运飞机（即货运飞机和军用运输飞机）面临的风险可能会有所降低，因而抗风险能力更强。”

Bernstein analysts on April 2 predicted the widebody engine market to be hit worse than narrowobodies because aircraft such as the Boeing 747, 757 and older Airbus A330s that are parked simply won’t return to service. This means engines such as the Pratt & Whitney 4000, GE CF6-80C2, Rolls-Royce RB211 and Trent 700 could face risks, although that could somewhat be “mitigated by exposure to non-passenger aircraft (ie freighters and military transport), which could be more resilient,” cites Bernstein.

汉莎航空技术公司也认为，客机发动机受到的影响将超过货运飞机。“汉莎航空技术公司的[发动机维修厂]从来没有积压过产品”，而是专注于“高效的机翼到机翼周转时间，以降低资产成本。因此，尽管我们很早就开始为危机做准备，但这部分业务最先受到冲击，”发动机维护主管Dietmar Focke表示。

Lufthansa Technik agrees that engines powering passenger aircraft will be affected more than freighters. “Lufthansa Technik never operated our [engine shop] production with backlogs,” instead focusing on “efficient wing-to-wing turnaround times to reduce asset cost. Therefore this part of the business was hit first even though we started preparations for the crisis early,” says Dietmar Focke, head of engine services.

然而，汉莎航空技术公司位于德国法兰克福、加拿大蒙特利尔、美国俄克拉荷马州图尔萨以及中国深圳的移动发动机维修站均已全面投入运营，因为“看到了行业对原本作为主要干预手段的事件的需求，”Focke称。

However, Lufthansa Technik’s mobile engine services repair stations in Frankfurt, Germany; Montreal, Canada; Tulsa, Oklahoma; and Shenzhen, China are each fully operational, and “seeing requests for events that were originally planned as major interventions,” says Focke.

他预测，即使旅行禁令解除，各航空公司恢复不受国内和国际航运网络限制的航班，对这些流动性发动机维修的需求仍将存在。他表示：“我们的小型维修能够以更低的成本进行，而且比完全恢复要便宜得多。”虽然这些有针对性的维护能使发动机在机翼上停留更长时间，但它们不能完全取代完整的入厂维修。

Even after travel bans are lifted and airlines resume flying unencumbered domestic and international networks, he predicts demand for these mobile engine services to continue. “Our small surgical procedures enable operation on lower cost basis and are significantly cheaper than full-performance restoration visits,” he says. While these targeted maintenance procedures keep engines on-wing longer, they cannot fully substitute for full shop visits.

由于客户的飞机停飞，瑞航技术公司也收到了不同的工作范围请求。

SR Technics also is getting requests for different work scopes as customers’ aircraft are grounded. 

“我们的外勤团队非常需要对停放的飞机进行较小规模的发动机维护检查，以保证飞机的适航性。比如更换机油、更换过滤器、小型维修和发动机试车等，”该公司一位女性发言人表示。过去几周，MRO在瑞士、西班牙和英国的12个航线站也接到了维持适航的任务。

 “Our field teams are high in demand to do smaller engine maintenance checks of the parked aircraft to keep them airworthy. This could be oil changes, filter replacements, smaller repairs and engine test-runs,” says a company spokeswoman. Over the last couple of weeks, the MRO’s 12 line stations in Switzerland, Spain and the UK are also receiving tasks to maintain airworthiness.

这位女性发言人称，更大的前景是，航空公司在权衡是短期还是长期停机时，正在与瑞航技术公司就“短期机库维护、库外检查和复役维修”进行接洽。她补充称：“租赁公司需要在进行收回查验、飞机停放以及之前引入的虚拟表检查时，客户可以远程检视他们的零部件，这些都是需求很高的。”

Bigger picture, operators are contacting SR Technics about “short-term aircraft storage maintenance, out-of-storage checks and return-to-service maintenance” as they weigh whether to park aircraft short- or longer-term, says the spokeswoman. “Leasing companies are asking for repossession services, aircraft parking and the previous introduced virtual table inspection where customers can inspect their parts remotely is high in demand,” she adds.

这条消息是Lee Ann Shay在Aviation Daily发表的文章。《Aviation Daily》为关注商业航空的高管提供真知灼见。每天获取航空公司和机场策略、主要航空公司的数据快照、票价数据以及国际覆盖率。点击此处查看有关Aviation Daily更多消息 。