时评：为什么说冠状病毒疫情击不垮航空业
不久前，商业航空面临的最大问题是，空客和波音能否生产足够的飞机来满足日益高涨的市场需求。行业领导者忧虑的是，他们能以多快的速度提高产能以及供应链是否能跟上步伐。一些航空公司也同样看好发展态势，美国航空公司首席执行官Doug Parker宣称：“我觉得，我们再也不会亏损了”。
Not long ago, the biggest concern facing commercial aviation was whether Airbus and Boeing could produce enough aircraft to keep up with demand. Industry leaders fretted about how quickly they could ramp up production and whether the supply chain could keep pace. Some airlines were equally bullish, with American Airlines CEO Doug Parker proclaiming: “I don’t think we’re ever going to lose money again.”
经历了看似无可阻挡的空前繁荣后，航空航天业迎来了一场大风暴。波音公司737 MAX机型生产线的暂时关停，让航空航天供应商陷入了困境。但这与冠状病毒疫情的影响相比，就相形见绌了。冠状病毒疫情在重创至关重要的增长引擎——中国市场之后，正在大肆摧残世界各地的空运市场。
After a run of unparalleled and seemingly unstoppable prosperity, aviation and aerospace have flown into a perfect storm. The temporary shutdown of Boeing’s 737 MAX production line has waylaid aerospace suppliers. But that pales in comparison to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, which first crippled a crucial growth engine, China, and is now decimating air transport markets around the world.
每天都会有机群停飞、裁员、航班延迟或取消，在未来几个月里，这些情况将像龙卷风一样席卷航空制造业。来自欧洲的一项新预测显示，空客2021年将被迫把计划产量削减近一半，而且有可能到2027年都无法完全恢复。波音呼吁美国政府向航空制造商提供至少600亿美元的援助，美国的航空公司希望再提供580亿美元的救济，机场需要100亿美元，维护、修理和大修行业则需要110亿美元。可以毫不夸张地说，这是民航业自60多年前进入商用喷气飞机时代以来面临的最大危机。
Each day brings a new round of fleet groundings, layoffs and order deferrals or cancellations, which in the coming months will rip through the manufacturing industry like a tornado. A new forecast from Europe projects Airbus will be forced to cut planned production nearly in half in 2021 and may not fully recover before 2027. Boeing is calling on the U.S. government to provide at least $60 billion in aid to aerospace manufacturers, U.S. airlines want another $58 billion, airports $10 billion and the maintenance, repair and overhaul industry $11 billion. It would not be hyperbole to call this the greatest crisis civil aviation has faced since the dawn of the commercial jet age more than six decades ago.
但面对这样的大恐慌，我们需要沉住气并牢记，这个行业曾经受并挺过了许多重大挑战：油价飙升；2001年9月11日的恐怖袭击；SARS疫情；以及2008至2009年的全球金融危机。商业航空每一次都能顺利熬过、快速恢复并变得更加强大，进而延续其长期以来超过全球经济增长步伐的发展势头。
But amid such panic, we need to take a deep breath and remember that this industry has survived many big challenges: oil price spikes; the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks; the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome; and the 2008-09 global financial meltdown. Each time commercial aviation has recovered and grown stronger, resuming its long-held trend of outpacing global economic growth.
在某种程度上，为控制COVID-19病毒传播而实施的旅行限制对我们生活和商业所造成的不良影响恰恰证明了整个世界对航空运输业的依赖程度，从促成业务到亲友团聚都离不开航空业。对于航空业来说，这是一场规模空前的危机，有些航空公司及相关企业势必无法存续。但此次航空业的中断让人看到了希望：一旦解除限制，航空运输需求将有增无减。
In one way, the disruption to our lives and businesses caused by the travel restrictions imposed to control the spread of COVID-19 illustrates the degree to which the world has come to rely on air transportation, from enabling commerce to connecting families. This is a crisis on an unprecedented scale for aviation, and there are airlines and businesses that certainly will not survive. But the extent of the disruption gives hope that demand for air transportation will return unabated once the restrictions are lifted.
政府官员、立法者及行业领导者必须认识到，航空业需要援助才能度过这样的重创。但有时候，这种做法会招致批评，这也是情理之中。例如，波音在过去五年间回馈股东近500亿美元，而投资却比这少得多。现在却要纳税人拿出数百亿美元来救市？美国的航空公司也好不到哪里去：过去五年间，给股东创造了96%的自由现金流。那么，欧洲那些早就应该获准倒闭的航空公司呢？他们会利用这次危机来寻求政府的救助吗？
It is vital for governments, lawmakers and industry leaders to recognize that aviation will need help getting through such destructive upheaval. But in some cases, the optics will invite legitimate criticism. For example, Boeing has returned nearly $50 billion to its shareholders over the past five years while investing far less. Now it wants taxpayers to cough up tens of billions for a bailout? U.S. airlines are no better: They have sent 96% of free cash flow to shareholders over the last five years. And what about those airlines in Europe that should have been allowed to die long ago? Will they use this crisis as leverage for yet another government rescue?
显然，我们可以从这场危机中吸取教训，而且只恢复正常经营还不够。但在短期内，这与党派政治和竞争优势无关。这是为了帮助一个至关重要的行业度过这场灾难。商业航空是一个重要体系，它支撑着全球商业发展、推动着经济繁荣而且还创造了数百万个就业岗位。任由它衰退没落绝非明智之举。虽然接下来还有一段黑暗期，但请放宽心，这个行业一定会复苏并再次繁荣发展。
Clearly, there are lessons to be learned from the crisis, and a return to business as usual will not suffice. But in the near term, this is not about partisan politics or competitive advantage. It is about helping a vital industry survive this calamity. Commercial aviation is a connective tissue that underpins global commerce, drives prosperity and supports many millions of jobs. Allowing it to wither is not a realistic option. The coming days will be dark, but rest assured the industry will recover and once again prosper.