继波音终止收购巴西航空公司之后，下一个夭折的并购交易会是谁？

对于所有相信“福不双降祸不单行”的人来说，仅4月份就有三宗失败的并购交易归咎于COVID-19。

For all those who believe that things come in threes, there now is the third failed mergers and acquisition (M&A) deal attributable to COVID-19 in April alone.

首先是4月6日，供应商Woodward和Hexcel的合并突然取消。随后，4月24日，美国高级公共有限公司（Senior PLC）宣布，将其飞机结构资产撤出市场。隔天，也就是星期六，波音说，它放弃了以42亿美元收购巴西航空工业公司大部分商用飞机部门的提议。

First there was the abrupt cancellation April 6 of the merger of suppliers Woodward and Hexcel. Then came Senior PLC’s announcement April 24 that it was pulling its aerostructures assets off the market. The next day, a Saturday, Boeing said it walked away from its proposed $4.2 billion acquisition of most of Embraer’s commercial aircraft division.

当然，直到上个月，这些公司都在为他们的交易努力筹谋。零部件供应商Woodward和复合材料领军企业Hexcel在今年1月刚宣布了合作。去年年底，Senior开始收购其飞机结构公司，并声称“对该业务有浓厚兴趣”，尽管英国供应商已经摘下了“待售”的牌子。当然，波音和巴西航空工业公司筹备他们这桩交易已有两年多了，波音首席财务官Greg Smith在刚过去的3月底还强调了其战略价值。

Of course, up until last month these companies were all dedicated to their dealmaking. Parts provider Woodward and composites leader Hexcel had announced their tie-up only in January. Senior started shopping its aerostructures late last year and claimed “strong interest for the business” even as the British supplier took down the “for sale” sign. And, of course, Boeing and Embraer had been selling their deal for more than two years, with Boeing CFO Greg Smith stressing its strategic value as recently as late March.

但此一时彼一时。在冠状病毒爆发前，A&D和政府服务并购预计今年将达到接近纪录的水平，与2018-19年A&D历史上最活跃、最昂贵的十年约1320亿美元的峰值差一些。

But that was then. In the pre-coronavirus world, A&D and government services M&A was expected to reach near-record levels this year, just off 2018-19 peaks of around $132 billion that bookended the most active and expensive decade in A&D history. 

据A&D并购顾问Mesirow Financial表示，2019下半年是过去10年中交易最繁忙的时期，而且私人股本投资者表现突出，越来越活跃。咨询公司AlixPartners指出，虽然业内从未期望2020年创下历史记录，但人们预期有另一种强劲的并购活动，从雷神科技（Rayteon Technologies）和L3Harris Technologies等大型并购，转向供应链和技术相关的整合。

According to A&D M&A adviser Mesirow Financial, the second half of 2019 was the busiest period of dealmaking in the past decade, including a strong showing from increasingly active private equity investors. While 2020 never was expected to set records, the expectation was for a different kind of robust M&A activity, shifting from mega-mergers, such as Raytheon Technologies and L3Harris Technologies, to supply chain- and technology-related consolidation, noted consultancy AlixPartners.

现在也都没有了。坊间证据表明，普遍存在的流动性担忧让所有人都陷入了保值模式，这对并购产生了令人寒心的影响。

Not anymore. Anecdotal evidence points to a chilling effect on M&A as widespread liquidity concerns have thrown everyone into a preservation mode. 

专注为政府承包商和国防企业服务的投资银行KippsDeSanto的董事总经理Bob Kipps说：“各个行业的估值都受到了相当大的冲击。”4月份以来，交易水平下降了约25%，交易量也呈指数级下降至每周1-2笔。

 “Valuations have been hit across the sectors pretty uniformly,” says Bob Kipps, MD of investment bank KippsDeSanto, which focuses on government contractors and defense primes. Levels were off roughly 25% as April began and dealmaking was down exponentially to 1-2 a week.

除了囤积现金，还有其他障碍。交易取决于面对面的交流，这与通过Zoom或Microsoft Teams交流不一样。此外，最近国会关于经济刺激立法的戏剧性事件提醒大家，今年是美国大选年。另外，人们对美国贸易战和英国脱欧的担忧挥之不去。所有这些因素一起发力，就好像一场风暴精准地袭击了并购活动。

Besides cash hoarding, there are other hurdles. Dealmaking depends on face-to-face schmoozing and that is not the same over Zoom or Microsoft Teams. Also, recent congressional drama over stimulus lawmaking has reminded everyone that this is a U.S. election year. Plus, there are lingering concerns over U.S. trade wars and Brexit. Put it all together and it is like a perfect storm has smacked M&A.

顾问公司Houlihan Lokey的总经理Greg Van Beuren说：“这就像问龙卷风中的人要往哪个方向走。”“对于收购之类的战略活动，确实没有新的信贷额度。它主要用来支持资产负债表，看看这会持续多久。”

 “It’s like asking someone in the middle of a tornado which direction they are going,” says Greg Van Beuren, MD of adviser Houlihan Lokey. “There is really no new credit available for strategic activity like an acquisition. It is primarily being used to shore up balance sheets and see how long this will last.”

现在的注意力正在转向其他可能沦为受害者的交易。Jefferies分析师Sheila Kahyaoglu和Greg Konrad列出了飞机结构巨头Spirit AeroSystems对庞巴迪商用飞机结构资产和Asco飞机部件制造商的竞标，以及Leidos对L3Harris Technologies安全检测和自动化业务的收购。

Attention now is turning to which other deals could fall victim. Jefferies analysts Sheila Kahyaoglu and Greg Konrad list aerostructure giant Spirit AeroSystems’ bids for Bombardier’s commercial aerostructures assets and the Asco aircraft parts maker, as well as Leidos’ acquisition of L3Harris Technologies’ security detection and automation businesses.

接下来，注意敌意收购。最近几周，几家A&D公司采取了所谓的“毒丸”措施，试图避开此类提议。这包括Spirit、Hexcel、Woodward和AAR。近来效仿此做法的公司包括Maxar Technologies，原因则不相同。

Next, watch for hostile takeovers. Several A&D companies in recent weeks have adopted so-called poison pills to try to ward off such proposals. They include Spirit, Hexcel, Woodward and AAR. Other recent adoptees included Maxar Technologies for different reasons.

“传统观点认为，由于机会主义收购者会利用被低估的公司，在某些情况下，由于对流动性的担忧，特别是脆弱的公司，敌意并购活动可能会随之增加，”顾问Morrison & Foerster表示。

 “Conventional wisdom would suggest a resulting increase in hostile M&A activity is likely to occur as opportunistic acquirors take advantage of companies that are undervalued and, in some cases, particularly vulnerable due to liquidity concerns,” according to adviser Morrison & Foerster.

最后，会出现一波不良资产，要做好准备。AlixPartners航空航天、国防和航空业务全球联席主管Eric Bernardini表示，私人股本投资者正在清理公司的投资组合，评估公司的现金状况或可以创造多少流动性。尽管各有各的麻烦，资金充足的连环收购者仍然准备好突袭。

Finally, prepare for a wave of distressed assets to emerge. Private equity investors are scrubbing their portfolios of companies, assessing their cash situations or how much more liquidity can be created, according to Eric Bernardini, global co-leader of the AlixPartners aerospace, defense and aviation practice. Despite their own troubles, well-funded serial acquirers remain ready to pounce.

以Mendelson三巨头运营的供应商Heico为例，其在4月15日表示，他们仍在寻求收购，尽管他们裁员，并放弃了2020年对股东的业绩指导，这是大多数分析师印象中的最重大的财务紧缩。Jefferies的分析师指出：“一旦前景稳定，该公司强劲的资产负债状况将使它们能够恢复并购。”

Take the Mendelson trio running supplier Heico, who said April 15 they still were looking for acquisitions, even as they cut down their workforce and ditch 2020 guidance for shareholders, the most significant financial retrenchment most analysts remember hearing from them. “The company’s strong balance sheet position will allow them to resume M&A once the outlook stabilizes,” the Jefferies analysts note.

不幸的是，在未来数月或数年内可以并购的目标可能会非常多。Bernardini的团队表示：“在短期内，许多低端市场供应商可能会发现自己陷入了困境，这是因为原始设备制造商（OEM）的降价和COVID-19对需求的影响导致的售后市场崩溃。”“最终，这可能会引发二级和三级供应链格局的重组，需要整合和注资。”

Unfortunately, there could be a target-rich environment in a matter of months or years. “In the near term, many down-market suppliers may find themselves in troubled waters due to both OEM rate reductions and the collapse of the aftermarket driven by COVID-19 demand impacts,” Bernardini’s team says. “Ultimately, this may trigger a reconfiguration of the Tier 2 and Tier 3 supply chain landscape, with a need for consolidation and capital injection.”

这条消息是Michael Bruno在Aviation Daily发表的文章。《Aviation Daily》为关注商业航空的高管提供真知灼见。每天获取航空公司和机场策略、主要航空公司的数据快照、票价数据以及国际覆盖率。点击此处查看有关Aviation Daily更多消息。