评论：全球性的危机冲击了租赁业
空客首席商务官Christian Scherer最近接受《航空周刊》采访，谈到出租人的角色。他赞不绝口：“这对处于危机中的制造商来说真的是一种补偿。在困难时期，出租人可以偿付资金。他们相当于OEM的财务减震器。”在过去的危机中，出租人在航空公司长期取消合约的情况下，继续按订单接收飞机，从而吸收了对航空业的冲击。在9/11恐怖袭击之后，情况尤其如此，这恰好是一场人们普遍认为与该行业目前正在经历的新型冠状病毒大流行最为相似的危机。
Christian Scherer, Airbus chief commercial officer, spoke with Aviation Week recently about the role of lessors. He was full of praise: “It is a real quid pro quo for manufacturers in a crisis. In bad times, lessors can pay back. They are a financial shock absorber for OEMs.” In past crises, lessors absorbed the shocks to the industry by continuing to take delivery of aircraft on order when airlines had long been canceling their commitments. That was particularly the case in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, which happens to be the one crisis that is generally referred to as having the most similarities to the novel coronavirus pandemic the industry is experiencing right now.
当然，Scherer的评论早于COVID-19对航空业的全面影响。时间过去数周后，情况变得越来越清晰。对于出租人来说，9/11和COVID-19实际上根本不相似。换言之，出租人不再是他们曾经充当的“减震器”。
Of course, Scherer’s comments predate the full-scale impact that COVID-19 has had on aviation. And a few weeks into the timeline it is becoming clear that for lessors, 9/11 and COVID-19 are actually not similar at all. In other words, lessors are not the “shock absorber” they once were.
原因相对简单：向航空公司租赁飞机的商业模式是基于并非所有航空公司都会同时遭受损失的假设。如果某一地区的一家航空公司正经历一段艰难时期，飞机可以飞往另一地区的运营商。这就是使航空业对投资者如此有吸引力的原因。与房地产不同，飞机可以从一个地方飞到另一个地方，并且通常需求很高——除非它们有四个引擎。
There is a relatively simple reason for this: The business model of leasing aircraft to airlines is based on the assumption that not all airlines will suffer at the same time. If one airline in a specific region is going through a rough period, aircraft can go to an operator in another region. That is what has made the aviation industry so attractive for investors. Unlike real estate, aircraft can be moved from one place to another and are generally in high demand — unless they have four engines.
在这个行业目前所面临的情况下，这种模式是不可行的，所有客户都会同时遭受损失。突然，飞机不能再四处飞了。由于新冠肺炎爆发，出租人现在的行为与航空公司近20年前的行为一样，在他们认为必须和可能的地方推迟或取消订单。
That model is not viable in the situation the industry is currently experiencing, one where all customers suffer simultaneously. Suddenly aircraft can no longer be moved around. As a result of the pandemic, lessors are now behaving in the same way that airlines did nearly 20 years ago, deferring or canceling orders wherever they feel they must and have the opportunity to do so.
由于该行业内并非所有交易和新协议都属于公共领域，因此对趋势的任何判断都必须谨慎。尽管如此，令人震惊的是，波音737 MAX似乎特别脆弱：Avolon取消了75架飞机的订单；GECAS从订单中删掉了69架（尽管这也意味着CFM国际发动机的生产将减少）；CDB航空取消了29架订单；Alafco正在终止40架飞机的订单。仅这四个客户就占了危机前直接出租订单的20%。而业内人士表示，随着一些企业正在考虑退出策略，还有更多的事情要做，包括取消和延期租赁，以及租赁行业内部的整合。
Due to the fact that not all deals and new agreements in the industry are in the public domain yet, any judgment about trends has to be made with caution. Nonetheless, it is striking that the Boeing 737 MAX appears to be particularly vulnerable: Avolon canceled commitments for 75 aircraft; GECAS removed 69 from its orderbook, even though that also means fewer CFM International engines will be built; CDB Aviation scrapped 29 orders; and Alafco is in the process of terminating a commitment for 40. These four customers alone represent around 20% of the precrisis direct lessor orders for the MAX. And industry sources say there is more to come — in terms of cancellations and deferrals and possibly in terms of consolidation within the leasing sector itself, as some players are mulling their exit strategies, according to industry sources.
那么，为什么是MAX？除了显而易见的原因还有别的原因吗？一位资深行业消息人士说：“客户嗅到了弱点，而波音自然是首当其冲。”“你强烈反对他们，因为他们做错了事，”他补充说，指的是MAX的停飞。随后较长的交货延迟使客户可以更轻松地取消某些订单。
So, beyond the obvious reasons, why the MAX? “Customers smell weakness, and Boeing are the natural guys to go after,” says one senior industry source. “You have strong arguments against them because they did things wrong,” he adds, referring to the MAX grounding. The subsequent long delivery delays allow customers to cancel some orders more easily.
但这个故事有些微妙。波音销售负责人Ihssane Mounir在2月的《航空周刊》上说：“作为一个行业，我们可能已经向出租人出售了太多飞机。总之，我们必须重新平衡。在过去的12个月中，我们一直在积极地致力于这一策略。”此外，波音不会在短期内生产出与之前计划数量相当的MAX。航空公司不能直接从波音也不能以出租人为中介来获得MAX飞机。该公司原计划将产量提高至每月57架，但分析师预计，近期至中期产量仅略高于原计划的一半。
But the story is a little more nuanced. Boeing sales chief Ihssane Mounir told Aviation Week in February: “As an industry, we have probably sold too many aircraft to lessors. Collectively, we have to rebalance the content. And we have been working very aggressively on this strategy over the past 12 months.” Besides, Boeing is not going to produce nearly as many MAXs as previously planned anytime soon. Airlines simply cannot take them, either from Boeing directly or through lessors as intermediaries. The company had planned to increase production to 57 aircraft per month, but analysts expect only a little more than half that output for the near-to-medium term.
与空客一样，波音也不能失去租赁行业中的大客户。因此，它总是有动机接受一些让步。
Like Airbus, Boeing cannot afford to lose marquee names among its customers in the leasing industry. It will therefore always have an incentive to agree to some concessions.
幸运的是，对于原始设备制造商，出租人也对许多直接取消并不真正感兴趣。延期（即使时长更久），是更可取的选择，因为它们确保出租人继续参与这个有望在适当时候成为巨大市场的领域。事实上，取消短期机位仅仅表明了危机的严重程度。
Fortunately for the OEMs, lessors also do not really have an interest in many outright cancellations. Deferrals, even for longer periods, are the much preferable option, as they ensure lessors will remain players in what will hopefully become a sizable market in due course. The fact that near-term slots are canceled merely shows how deep the crisis is.
然而，长期延期也有其自身的风险。随着时间的推移，需求模式会发生变化，竞争格局也会发生变化。假设出租人的A320neos投资组合中有很大一部分要推迟几年。如果波音最终找到资金开发一款新的窄体机，那么从长远来看，该机队可能会失去剩余价值——几乎所有业内人士都认为，这种发展宜早不宜晚。但鉴于该行业目前正经历着非同寻常的危机，要解答这些问题并非易事。
Long-term deferrals carry their own risk, however. Demand patterns can change over time, as can the competitive landscape. Suppose a large part of a lessor’s portfolio for A320neos were to be deferred by several years. That fleet could lose residual value in the long term if Boeing ultimately finds the money to develop a new narrowbody—a development almost everyone in the industry agrees should happen sooner rather than later. But these are luxury issues, given the extraordinary crisis the sector is going through now.
这条消息是Jens Flottau在 Aviation Week & Space Technology 发表的文章。《Aviation Week & Space Technology》由人脉最广、经验最丰富的记者团队提供支持，为新趋势、最佳操作实践和政策、要求和预算的持续更新提供关键情报。 点击此处查看有关 Aviation Week & Space Technology 更多消息。