从新冠疫情中恢复是远程低成本航空公司的挑战 | The Challenge For Long-Haul LCCs: Recovery From COVID-19

对于远程低成本航空公司而言，航空运输业的这个领域终饱受质疑，而新冠病毒疫情危机及其未来对人们出行方式的影响可能为这个领域带来最后的危胁。

For long-haul low-cost carriers, a subset of the airline industry that always has had its doubters, the COVID-19 crisis and the profound ways in which it could affect future consumer behavior may bring the final straw.

由于一些知名的远程低成本航空公司也都面临着严重的困难，因此人们对这类航空公司的可持续性发展的疑问变得更加突出。

As the big names in low-cost long-haul travel suffer serious difficulties, the enduring doubts about the sustainability of long-haul low-cost carriers (LCC) have come into focus even more sharply.

Altair咨询公司董事总经理Patrick Edmond表示：“国际航空运输协会（IATA）认为要等到2024年全球航空运输才能恢复到以前的正常水平。而考虑到现在正在持续的低迷，我认为这对远程航线的影响要大于对短程航线的影响，而且远程航班的低成本运营模式从未比短程航班的更有优势。而在疫情过后的世界中，低成本远程航班会存在更大的疑问。”

 “IATA numbers suggest that it will be 2024 before we’re back to previous normal,” says Patrick Edmond, managing director of Altair Advisory, referring to the International Air Transport Association’s latest prediction for overall air travel demand.“We’re now looking at a sustained downturn, and I think that’s going to affect long-haul more than it will affect short-haul. The low-cost long-haul model was never as obviously superior as the low-cost short-haul model,” Edmond says. “I think in a post-COVID world, low-cost long-haul has an even bigger question mark.”

JLS Consulting航空咨询公司的主管John Strickland表示同意，他说：“是的，虽然长期以来远程航班的需求都价格不菲，但是对于航空公司来说其挑战是要在远程航班上盈利，而即使在经济繁荣时期也无法持续实现这一目标。”

John Strickland, director of aviation consultancy JLS Consulting, agrees.“Yes, there is demand for long-haul travel at good prices,” he says. “But the challenge is doing it profitably, and that was not being achieved sustainably even in the good times.”

在经过长达数月的停飞之后，全球的航空旅行开始开放，此时短程航班正处于领先地位，这对依赖于远程航班的航空公司构成了更大的挑战。

As the world of air travel begins to open up after a months-long shutdown, short-haul routes are leading the way, leaving a tougher challenge for carriers reliant on long-haul operations.

在某种程度上，低成本航空公司依靠休闲旅行带动了“微不足道”的乘客需求，而航空公司高管和行业观察家都同意，全球商务旅行需求将需要更长的时间才能恢复。这使得依赖于休闲旅行的低成本航空公司相比传统航空公司更幸运一些。

In one way, LCCs are luckier than their legacy counterparts; they rely on leisure travel, which is driving the paltry amount of passenger demand. Airline excutives and industry watchers alike agree business-travel demand will take longer to return.

但是，低成本航空公司的优势并不大，因为休闲旅行乘客一直对价格敏感，要说服他们预订更贵的机票将是一个巨大的挑战。而且由于疫情的发展以及各国旅行限制不断变化的不确定性对休闲旅行带来了威胁，更不用说经济前景不明朗的影响了。

But even that advantage is not straightforward. Leisure travelers always have been price-sensitive, and to convince them to book tickets will be a big challenge amid ongoing uncertainty about the evolution of the virus and rapidly changing travel restrictions, not to mention economic gloom.

“机票价格将是使人们重返空中旅行的重要因素，但要以低廉的价格盈利就需要更高效的飞机，” Strickland说。 他认为尽管飞机租赁价格可能会下降，但波音787或A350这样新型高效的飞机仍将比较老型号的飞机更贵。而且航空公司手中飞机的类型将很重要，窄体机运营商由于体量较小，这意味着成本和风险都更低，因比宽体机运营商拥有更好的机会。

“Ticket price will be an important element for getting people back to traveling, but to offer low fares profitably, modern efficient aircraft are required,” Strickland says. Although lease rates may fall, the likes of Boeing 787s or Airbus A350s are still going to be more expensive than less-efficient aircraft, he believes.“Aircraft type will be important, and narrowbody operators stand a much better chance than widebody operators due to smaller capacity, meaning not only lower costs but also lower risk,” Strickland explains.

而那些仍想飞行的休闲旅行乘客是否准备好进行长途飞行？如果是这样的话，他们就有可能偏爱传统航空公司在服务和舒适性上面的优势，特别是如果那些传统航空公司为降低价格而打出的较大折扣，则对低成本远程航班更为不利。

Will those leisure travelers who still want to fly be prepared to commit to long-haul trips? And if they do, there is a risk they will favor the perceived service and comfort advantages of a legacy carrier, especially if those operators aggressively are dropping their prices to compete.

引领远程低成本航空公司发展的是亚太地区，但即使在这里这种商业模式尚未证明可以持续盈利。酷航与泰国航空运营商Nok Air合资成立了一家远程低成本航空公司NokScoot，该航空公司使用波音777-200，已经执飞从曼谷飞往印度、日本，以及中国大陆和中国台湾的航线。但是，这种远程低成本航空公司的先行者AirAsia X航空公司正在寻求筹集生存所需的资金，该公司在三月份暂停了定期航班服务，并表示希望“保持休眠模式”，而且没有恢复服务的时间表。目前AirAsia X在利用少量飞机运营一些非定期货运航线和调机航班，其恢复航班计划的前景将取决于旅客需求的恢复和国家间出入境限制的放松。

In the Asia-Pacific region, which has led the way in development of long-haul LCCs, the business model has yet to prove it can be sustainably profitable. One Asian long-haul LCC, NokScoot, a joint venture between Scoot and Thai carrier Nok Air, which operated Boeing 777-200s from Bangkok to China, India, Japan and Taiwan, already has been liquidated. The pioneer of this model in the region, AirAsia X, is seeking to raise the financing needed to survive. It suspended scheduled services in March and says it expects “to remain in hibernation mode,” with no timeline to return to service. AirAsia X has been operating “a handful of aircraft” on nonscheduled cargo and repatriation flights. But its prospects for resuming scheduled operations will depend on recovery of demand and easing of border restrictions.

在欧洲，挪威航空（Norwegian Air Shuttle）最初预测其机队停飞期限将至2021年4月之前，但该公司已计划在2020年12月进行一些跨大西洋的飞行。在疫情流行前，挪威航空在迅速扩张从而面临一些财务困难，但他们已开始在重组方面取得了一些进展。现在像其他航空公司一样，挪威航空公司将被迫专注挺过需求复苏的艰难时期，届时运营成本将上升，但无法保证收入会随之增长。

In Europe, Norwegian Air Shuttle initially predicted its fleet would remain largely grounded until April 2021, but it has scheduled some transatlantic flights for December. Before the pandemic, the carrier had been facing financial difficulties after its rapid expansion left it stretched too thin, but it had started to make progress on a restructuring plan. Now, like other airlines, Norwegian will be forced to focus on surviving the difficult months of a fledgling recovery, when operating costs will be on the rise with no guarantee that revenues will follow.

而且挪威航空在2020年12月重启几条跨大西洋航线的计划受到了Strickland的怀疑，他表示：“我对这些航线计划是否会最终成行表示怀疑。在目前的环境下，以往通常考虑圣诞假期出行的乘客现在都具有很大的不确定性，而在整体需求疲软的冬季，圣诞需求只是一个短暂的高峰而已。冬季并不是重新开启远程航线的时机。”

Strickland voices doubts about Norwegian’s latest plan, which involves restarting several transatlantic routes this winter.  “I’m sceptical as to whether it will happen as stated,” he says. “There will be greater uncertainty for people who might ordinarily be thinking about Christmas travel plans, and it’s a short-lived peak in the weak winter season. Winter is not the time to be restarting with significant long-haul capacity.”

但是，有些远程低成本航线然有亮点。

But there may be some bright spots for which the long-haul LCC model still makes sense.

例如Vistara和SpiceJet公司已在伦敦希思罗机场保留了航班的时刻，这标志着一旦出行限制放宽，他们便计划执行英国至印度的航线。

Vistara and SpiceJet have secured slots at London’s Heathrow Airport, signaling a plan to serve UK-India routes once travel restrictions ease.

Strickland表示：“远程低成本航线运营商可能有在特定航线上服务特定人群的机会，例如这些人群需要旅行去回访亲朋好友等等，” Strickland说。

“There may be opportunities for long-haul LCC operators on specific routes serving specific populations where there is demand for travel to visit friends and family back home,” Strickland says.

但是偶尔的亮点航线仍然是例外情况。Edmond补充说：“在整个行业摆脱疫情影响之前，例如在有效的疫苗出现之前，我看不到低成本远程航线有恢复的长期需求。”

But those bright spots will remain the exception. “I don’t see any durable reemergence of low-cost long-haul before we get past the current COVID-19 situation—for example, with a vaccine,” Edmond adds.

这条消息是Helen Massy-Beresford在Aviation Week & Space Technology发表的文章。 加入航空周刊情报网(AWIN)会员，访问公司、项目、机队和联系人数据库，获取权威解析与市场情报并找到新的业务机会。点击击此预约您的产品演示。