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Analysis Shows 13% Of Stored MAX Fleet Has No Customers | 分析显示,库存中的波音737MAX有13%尚无客户

Boeing MAX aircraft
Credit: Boeing

《Aviation Week Network - 航空周刊》的分析显示,在波音公司已生产但尚未交付的波音737MAX当中,有13%的飞机需要波音重新为其寻找客户,这是由于一些客户受到机型停飞和全球需求下降等因素的影响,对其订单进行了修改。

Boeing needs to find new customers for 13% of the 737 MAXs it has built but not delivered following order-book shuffling by customers prompted by several factors, including the model’s prolonged grounding and the global airline downturn, an Aviation Week analysis shows.

截至2020年8月31日,波音公司约470架波音737MAX等待交付给客户。该机大部分库存都是自2019年3月中旬以后建造的,当时该机已被停飞,波音也暂停了该机的交付。

The company had about 470 MAXs in its possession awaiting delivery to customers as of Aug. 31. Most of Boeing’s MAX inventory has been built since mid-March 2019, when the model was grounded and Boeing paused deliveries of its newest narrowbody.

航空周刊情报网机队数据分析显示,这470架飞机中的62架(约占13%)其订单已被最初用户取消,而且尚未被重新预订。在这62架飞机中,租赁公司取消的订单为49架,航空公司取消了11架,另外2架是该机的BBJ版本。

An Aviation Week Intelligence Network Fleet Data analysis shows 62 of these, or 13% of the total, have been canceled by their original customers and not re-booked as part of new orders, a serial-number-level analysis of available data shows. Lessors accounted for 49 of these cancellations, while airlines canceled 11 of them. Two others were Boeing Business Jet VIP versions.

有一些订单的取消被认为是这62架无主飞机出现的主要影响因素,包括SpiceJet公司取消的2架飞机订单。该公司的订单在2018年10月以前取消,当时该机正受到印尼狮航的JT610航班事故影响而停飞。

Several of the cancellations affecting the 62 customer-less aircraft, including two by SpiceJet, took place before October 2018, when the first of two fatal MAX accidents took place that led to the model’s grounding.

除了没有新订单的62架飞机外,目前737MAX的库存中有另外12架飞机的订单也被取消过,但随后又被重新订购。 据路透社报道,波音正在寻求达美航空公司订购其多达40架的无主737MAX。达美航空虽然是美国最大的航空公司,但该公司目前并没有737MAX的订单。

In addition to the 62 aircraft with no firm orders attached, another 12 aircraft in Boeing’s current MAX inventory were canceled but then picked up in subsequent orders. Reuters reported that Boeing is pursuing an order from Delta Air Lines for as many as 40 of the remaining white tails. Delta is the largest U.S. carrier without any MAX orders.

分析显示,从2020年初至今的数据来看,波音737MAX的客户在今年前8个月取消了564架订单,其中114架属于航空公司,如GOL公司取消了34架、Canada Air取消了29架,占航空公司取消订单的大部分;而在上述62架无主飞机的初始用户中,也包括有2020年取消了订单的2家航空公司,如摩洛哥皇家航空。

Looking at year-to-date figures, customers canceled 564 MAX orders in the first eight months of 2020, including 114 by airlines, the analysis shows. GOL, with 34, and Air Canada, with 29, account for most of the airline-generated order book removals. Two of the 2020 airline cancellations, both by Royal Air Maroc, are among the 62 aircraft in Boeing’s inventory without a new customer.

波音公司在2019年有270架737MAX订单被取消,其中有很多是属于Jet Airways公司的飞机,该公司于2019年4月终止了运营。波音公司截至8月31日的积压订单中包括125架Jet Airways的飞机。 2019年波音737MAX的取消订单中有162架属于航空公司,其余属于租赁公司。

Last year, Boeing lost 270 MAX orders to cancellations—most of them destined for Jet Airways, which stopped flying in April 2019. Boeing’s official Aug. 31 backlog included a 125-aircraft order for Jet Airways. Airlines accounted for 162 MAX cancellations last year, with lessors making up the balance.

波音公司虽然还在发布每月交付数据,但并未透露已造好并等待交付的飞机库存关方数据,例如过去18个月波音究竟新制造了多少架737MAX。

While Boeing publishes monthly delivery data, it does not disclose official figures on the total number of aircraft built and awaiting handover to customers, such as the MAXs built in the last 18 months. 

《Aviation Week Network - 航空周刊》的分析显示,在2020年1月波音737MAX停产时有456架未交付的飞机。自从今年4月份波音重新开始以所谓“低速率”来生产飞机时,一直没有透露其737项目的产能,因此目前尚不清楚有多少架 737MAX将在2020年生产。据Jefferies的分析师报告称,截至9月中旬,波音公司的机身结构件供应商Spirit航空系统公司已在2020年向波音公司运送了22架737 MAX的机身部件。

Aviation Week’s analysis showed Boeing had 456 undelivered MAXs when it paused production in January 2020. Boeing has not revealed firm rates for its 737 program since it re-started what it called “low-rate” production in April, so it is unclear how many MAXs have been produced in 2020. Analysts at Jefferies reported that as of mid-September, Spirit AeroSystems had shipped a total of 22 737 MAX fuselages to Boeing in 2020.

最新的波音737产量预测是在2022年第一季度将产能稳步增加到每月31架飞机。在监管机构开始解除机队停飞的运营禁令后,预计波音737MAX的交付将很快恢复。美国联邦航空局(FAA)和其他一些监管机构可能会在2020年11月或12月批准波音公司对波音737MAX做出的更改,从而为2020年的少量交付扫清道路。

Boeing’s latest 737 production projections has it steadily ramping up to 31 aircraft per month in the first quarter of 2022. MAX deliveries are expected to re-start soon after regulators begin lifting the operations bans that grounded the fleet following two fatal accidents. The FAA and some other regulators could sign off on changes Boeing is making to the MAX in November or December, clearing the way for a few deliveries in 2020. 

FAA局长史蒂夫·迪克森(Steve Dickson)此前是拥有波音737驾驶资制裁的飞行员,经过了几天的培训后,他于9月30日亲自驾驶一架波音737MAX进行了试飞,验证了波音所做的必要修改。在对媒体公布的评论中,迪克森对波音的修改感到乐观,但没有明确FAA的批准日期。

FAA Administrator Steve Dickson, a former airline pilot with 737 experience, took the revised training over several days and then flew one of Boeing’s test aircraft on Sept. 30, conducting scenarios that demonstrate many of the required changes Boeing made. In post-flight comments to reporters, Dickson was upbeat about Boeing’s progress, but stopped short of providing a definitive date for the FAA’s sign-off.

《Aviation Week Network - 航空周刊》的数据显示,波音737MAX项目仍有3993架未完成的订单,其中包括11架BBJ公务机。《Aviation Week Network - 航空周刊》计算的积压订单中,并不包括仍出现在波音官方数字中但“极不可能交付”的飞机,例如Jet Airways公司的737MAX。

Aviation Week data shows the MAX program with 3,993 outstanding orders, including 11 Boeing Business Jets. The Aviation Week backlog does not include orders still reflected in Boeing’s official numbers that are highly unlikely to be delivered, such as the Jet Airways MAXs.

—Bo-GöranLundkvist的机队分析

这条消息是Sean Broderick在Aviation Daily发表的文章。加入航空周刊情报网(AWIN)会员,访问公司、项目、机队和联系人数据库,获取权威解析与市场情报并找到新的业务机会。点击击此预约您的产品演示。