While accurately predicting what the MRO market will look like, even at the end of this year, is tricky due to the COVID-19 pandemic, these recent figures and facts could hint at what it will be.
Big mergers during these cash-crunch days are not happening: Boeing and Embraer, as well as Hexcel and Woodward, both called off their planned deals. However, the one-stop-shop concept isn’t going away, so MRO consolidation will continue.
The number of parked aircraft is probably at or near its peak. Aviation Week Network’s Fleet Discovery data shows nearly 16,000 aircraft are parked and about 3,500 are in parked/reserve status (flying 1-2 days during a 7-day period). Airbus A320s and Boeing 737s comprise 9,300 of that total, meaning that more CFM56s are parked than any other engine type by far.
A decrease in aircraft belly freight due to fewer flights is leading to new opportunities for cabin modifications as airlines temporarily carry freight in their cabins. Companies such as HAECO Cabin Solutions are designing products to place freight on or between seats, or removing seats to make room for a “palletized” unit on the floor.
Airline travel will most likely recover at a slow, gradual rate, rather than a V-shaped spike. That means not all of the aircraft and engines will return. As airlines and lessors determine whether their aircraft and engine assets are worth more remaining whole or as pieces, teardowns will increase. This will lead to more used serviceable material.
Until travel restrictions ease, however, the industry faces all sorts of logistics problems—from people to parts.
例如，由于旅行限制和隔离，出租人的预定回报被耽搁。他们需要寻找当地资源提供维护、检查飞机并签署所需文件。Vedder Price的合伙人Bill Gibson说：“这种延误带来的风险是，与后续运营商签订的下一份租约中的最后期限已过，而后续租约将被终止。”
For instance, lessors’ scheduled returns are being held up because of travel restrictions and quarantines. They need to find local resources to perform maintenance, inspect the aircraft and sign the required documents. “This delay creates the risk that a long-stop date in the next lease with a follow-on operator is passed, and the follow-on lease is terminated,” says Bill Gibson, a partner at Vedder Price.
On the bright side, one thing that is helping airlines and aftermarket companies through this crisis is remote collaboration tools. During an Aviation Week webinar April 22 on MRO compliance, 67% of participants said they had looked into remote collaboration tools before the COVID-19 crisis and 19% said they had done so since.
These tools and others—such as what AAR is piloting—will make the MRO industry more efficient.
Companies are understandably trying to preserve their cash, but in these times it is important to focus on your business fundamentals so your company will meet customer needs and expectations and be positioned for the future post-COVID-19—because the market will recover. It will look different and it might take a few years, but it will rebound.
这条消息是Lee Ann Shay在Inside MRO 杂志发表的文章。《Inside MRO》杂志研究商用飞机MRO领域的最新趋势和技术。每期月刊都提供了做出关键技术、业务和运营决策所需的信息。此外，订阅者每月还会收到一期《Aviation Week & Space Technology》杂志，该杂志是业内新兴技术分析和见解的主要来源。点击此处查看有关Inside MRO更多消息。