新老窄体机推动引擎MRO市场

English Text by James Pozzi January 20, 2020
V2500
The V2500, with the CFM56, will account for a significant proportion of engine MRO spending in 2020.
Credit: MTU Maintenance

CFM56和V2500系列将占2020年商用引擎售后开支的三分之一左右，因后续型号投放速度放缓致使成熟机型服役期延长，将提振MRO需求。

The CFM56 and V2500 families will account for around one-third of commercial engine aftermarket spending in 2020, with MRO demand boosted as mature models are kept in service longer owing to the slower pace of their successors entering service.

这种放缓是因为CFM国际公司的CFM Leap（CFM56的后续型号）和普惠公司PW1000G齿轮传动式涡扇发动机（GTF）过去几年里存在的技术问题所致。据 Aviation Week’s 2020 Fleet & MRO Forecast，商用引擎细分市场的年度估值为347亿美元，预计CFM56和V2500在12个月内合计能产生129亿美元的开支。

This slowdown is the result of technical issues related to CFM International’s Leap, the CFM56’s successor, and the Pratt & Whitney PW1000G geared turbofan (GTF) over the past few years. In a commercial engine segment valued at $34.7 billion for the year by Aviation Week’s latest Fleet & MRO Forecast, the CFM56 and V2500 are forecast to generate $12.9 billion in combined spending over a 12-month period.

今年服役的CFM56系列预计约有23058套，其中为波音737NG提供动力的CFM56-7B会占CFM56机群的一半以上。与此同时，空客A320系列机型上使用的V2500发动机将有6000台投入使用。

The CFM56 family is projected to have approximately 23,058 units in service this year, with the -7B variant powering the Boeing 737NG the most prominent, accounting for more than half of the CFM56 fleet. Meanwhile, the V2500 engine found on the Airbus A320 aircraft family will have 6,000 units in service. 

虽然工作过剩对维修专员来说是个好消息，但CFM56和V2500较长的使用寿命也可以确保MRO市场容量在未来至少2-3年依然紧张。未来几年，备用发动机及相关材料的供应也极有可能出现短缺的情况，直至退役后在市场上供应更多二手材料才能得到缓解。

While the surplus of work will be good news for repair specialists, the longevity of the CFM56 and V2500 also could ensure that MRO market capacity will remain tight for the next 2-3 years at least. The availability of spare engines and related materials likely also will be scarce for the next few years, until relief comes in the form of retirements hitting the market and supplying more used materials.

预计从2023年开始，CFM56发动机的退役数量将会增加，届时将首次出现一年内有1000多台发动机退役的情况。本世纪三十年代末，估计会有8858台CFM56发动机退役。V2500发动机的退役数也会逐渐增多。2020年估计只有98台退役，但再过十年会有约2178台V2500逐步淘汰。

These retirements are expected to pick up starting in 2023 for CFM56 engines, when for the first time more than 1,000 will be retired during that year. By the end of the decade in 2029, an estimated 8,858 CFM56 engines will leave service. Retirements of the V2500 also will increase gradually. Numbering just 98 in 2020, over a 10-year period approximately 2,178 V2500s will be phased out.

虽然新窄体机引擎迟迟不现身，但Leap和GTF的投入数量预计依然会增加。据《航空周刊》数据，2020年预计会交付2600台CFM Leap。不过，这一数据要取决于波音737MAX的备选发动机-1B的命运。

While the arrival of the new narrowbody engines has been sluggish, the influx of the Leap and GTF is nevertheless still expected to pick up. According to Aviation Week data, around 2,600 deliveries of the Leap are expected in 2020. However, this figure could be dependent on the fortunes of the -1B variant, the engine option for the Boeing 737 MAX program.

2019年，因受跟其所用Leap引擎不相干问题的困扰，致使该机型于三月份停飞。波音表示，拟议在2020年让该机型重新投入使用，但停飞使一些原始设备制造商遭到重创。

In 2019, the aircraft was dogged by problems unrelated to its Leap engines, leading to the grounding of the fleet in March. Boeing said it intends to have the aircraft back in service during 2020, but the groundings have hit some OEMs hard.

虽然有些航空公司已经下了大批采购MAX机型的订单（例如：英国航空公司订购了200架），但其他航空公司则选择另觅其他机型。其中包括沙特阿拉伯的廉航Flyadeal，该公司于2019年夏取消了采购50架这种由Leap提供动力的机型的订单。2015年投入使用的用于A320neo机型的Leap 1A在2024年之前不会发生任何重大的MRO开支。

While some airlines have since placed large orders for the MAX (such as British Airways’ for 200 aircraft), others have chosen to look elsewhere. These include low-cost carrier Flyadeal of Saudi Arabia, which canceled its order for up to 50 of the Leap-powered aircraft in summer 2019. The Leap 1A variant for the A320neo, which entered service in 2015, will not see any significant MRO spending until 2024.

 《航空周刊》预计，2020年宽体机引擎细分市场将占165亿美元的市值。 由通用电气（持有50%的市场份额）和劳斯莱斯（持有33%的市场份额）统领的该细分市场预计全年将发生2257次维修。在通用航空所占的市场份额中，有30%来自用于某些波音机型以及A330、747和767等空客宽体机型的CF6-80C2。

Aviation Week predicts the widebody engine segment will account for $16.5 billion of the market in 2020. The segment, dominated by GE Aviation and Rolls-Royce, which hold 50% and 33% shares of the market, respectively, will account for an estimated 2,257 maintenance events throughout the year. Of GE Aviation’s market share, 30% will emanate from the CF6-80C2, used on several Boeing and Airbus widebody aircraft including the A330, 747 and 767.

787是航空公司降低油耗成本的热门机型，为其提供动力的通用航空GEnx引擎预计交付量最高，到2020年将有248台交付使用。紧随其后的是劳斯莱斯的Trent XWB（空客A350的专享引擎），据《航空周刊》提供的数据显示，2020年将交付240台。为A330、757和767等机型提供动力的通用电气CF6-80引擎将是未来10年退役数最多的引擎，2020-2029年间退役数将达到1649台。

Powering the 787, a popular aircraft option for airlines looking to reduce fuel consumption costs, GE Aviation’s GEnx engine will see the highest delivery volumes, with 248 engines set for 2020. This will be followed by Rolls-Royce’s Trent XWB, the exclusive option for the A350, which will see 240 deliveries in 2020, according to Aviation Week data. GE’s CF6-80 model, powering aircraft including the A330, 757 and 767, will have the highest volume of retirements over 10 years, numbering 1,649 units in 2020-29.

在仅占全球商用机队5%的涡轮螺旋桨发动机领域，售后支出主要集中在少数几款发动机型号上。到2020年，普惠加拿大公司将占据80%以上的市场份额，其中大部分与主要用于ATR42和72机型的PW100发动机有关。由于涡轮螺旋桨发动机领域预计不会出现新的竞争者，未来十年该原始设备制造商的市场占有量将上涨，到2029年将占到92%左右。

In the turboprop segment, which accounts for just 5% of the global commercial fleet, aftermarket spending is centered on just a handful of engine types. Pratt & Whitney Canada will hold more than 80% of the market in 2020, with much of this related to the PW100 engine, primarily found on the ATR42 and 72. With no new entrants expected in the turboprop segment, the OEM’s market dominance will grow over the next decade—standing at around 92% by 2029.