2019年底，创新高的MRO支出提振了商业航空售后市场，但仍有人怀疑，其确定无疑的产能限制将在近期至中期得到缓解。根据Aviation Week's 2020 Fleet & MRO Forecasts，发动机方面的MRO占42％的市场份额，这就是证明。尽管2019年的商业MRO总体支出达到243亿美元，预计今年将跃升至347亿美元，但大修量的激增使许多MRO提供商每年在全球修理厂的产能已接近12个月。
The end of 2019 saw a commercial aviation aftermarket buoyed by record MRO spending but one still skeptical that its well-documented capacity constraints will be alleviated in the near- to mid-term. The engine segment, which accounts for 42% of the market according to Aviation Week’s 2020 Fleet & MRO Forecasts, is evidence of this. While overall commercial MRO spending reached $24.3 billion for 2019 and is expected to jump to $34.7 billion this year, the surge in shop visits has left many providers running close to capacity for 12 months a year at shops worldwide.
The narrowbody engine segment, mainly the CFM56 and V2500, which account for more than half of the market combined, is particularly lucrative at present. Demand for these engine types is strong, with shop visits for their newer engine variants—the V2500-A5, CFM56-5B and CFM56-7—are all expected to peak by the mid-2020s. However, their successor engines, the CFM Leap and Pratt & Whitney’s PW1000G, have seen technical issues over the past few years, meaning the expected influx leading to the phase-out of older engines hasn’t materialized very quickly. As it stands, many in the industry believe the CFM56 and V2500 will be operating well into the 2030s.
其他成熟的发动机项目也显示出较长使用寿命，这对产能产生了一些不利影响。MTU航空发动机公司负责MRO项目的高级副总裁马丁·弗里斯·彼得森（Martin Fris Petersen）说：“由于燃油价格降低，航空运输需求旺盛，对CF6-80C2等老款传统发动机的服务需求持续时间比预期长，对飞机和发动机的需求高而交付速度慢，已然供不应求。”“此外，新一代发动机要比最初预期的更早入厂大修，并将在未来数十年内逐步增加。所有这些都导致我们的维修厂和许多其他维修厂在世界各地满载。”
Other mature engine programs have also shown longevity, which has had some detrimental effects on capacity. “Demand for services for older legacy engines, such as the CF6-80C2, has continued longer than expected—thanks to low fuel prices and air transport demand, where demand for aircraft and engines is faster than delivery rates,” says Martin Friis-Petersen, senior vice president for MRO programs at MTU Aero Engines. “Also, new-generation engines are entering the shops earlier than originally anticipated and will ramp up in the next decades. All this has led to our shops and many others being fully loaded worldwide.”
除了这些问题外，最新情况是去年困扰波音737 MAX计划的技术难题。由于飞机尚未复飞，因此预计这种情况将持续到今年，可能会增加对旧飞机及其发动机的需求。咨询公司AeroDynamic Advisory的高级助理迈克•斯坦格尔（Mike Stengel）表示，虽然退役可以缓解普遍存在的可用材料短缺问题，但737 MAX的任何潜在复飞可能是推动这一趋势的关键。
On top of these issues, a more recent development has been the technical woes that dogged the Boeing 737 MAX program last year. With the aircraft yet to return to service, the expectation is that this situation will continue well into the year, likely increasing demand for older aircraft and their engines. While retirements could provide relief for the used serviceable material shortages that are prevalent, any potential return to service of the 737 MAX could be key to driving that trend, says Mike Stengel, senior associate at consultancy AeroDynamic Advisory.
“Fleet demographics certainly suggest that a wave of retirements is coming. However, if the teething problems on the new-engine models continue, then older aircraft may remain in service longer than expected. The return to service of the MAX will also influence retirement rates in the coming years to replace the last generation of narrowbodies,” he says.
Stengel believes that the current environment has pushed MROs into adding capacity out of necessity. “MROs are somewhat backed into a corner in this regard, and one of their most effective options is to expand capacity,” he says, pointing to several suppliers announcing expansion plans, both for engine shop visits and component repairs. For airlines with in-house engine shops, he cites the decisions of American Airlines and United Airlines to insource some engine work, with the former bringing CFM56-5B in-house in late 2018 while the latter brought some V2500 engine services in-house. “This allows them to control their own destiny to a degree rather than relying on third-party capacity,” Stengel says.
咨询公司罗兰贝格（Roland Berger）的负责人霍尔格•利波斯基（Holger Lipowsky）认为，虽然当前的环境极具挑战性，但这为资源充足的公司提供了一个增长产能的良好机会。他说：“现在是投资的最佳时机，尤其是对有财力建设产能的大型原始设备制造商而言，预计他们将利用这一机会在未来几年内巩固自己的地位。”
Holger Lipowsky, principal at consultancy Roland Berger, believes that while the current climate is challenging, it presents a good opportunity for well-resourced companies to grow capacity. “It’s the perfect time for investments and especially for large OEMs with the financial power to build capacity and are expected to use this opportunity to strengthen their position for the coming years,” he says.
A recent example of an OEM doing this is Rolls-Royce, which in November 2019 confirmed several changes to its global aftermarket network as it looks to prepare for the growing number of its engines undergoing shop visits over the next decade. Its Rolls-Royce Deutschland site in Dahlewitz, Germany, is to transition into a services hub with capability for widebody engine overhauls from early this year.
同时，其加拿大蒙特利尔罗尔斯-罗伊斯工厂还将在今年晚些时候推出宽体发动机大修服务，预计开始日期为第四季度。除了承认产能是这些举措背后的驱动力外，罗尔斯-罗伊斯还表示它做出这些改变还为了减少处理在用的Trent 1000问题对客户造成的影响。此前，它的维修中心（AMC）车间网络进行了调整。总部位于美国的MRO Standard Aero于2018年初加入AMC，负责RB211的维修，在这之前，分别为波音787和空客A350提供动力的Delta Tech Ops成为Trent 1000和Trent XWB的AMC。
Meanwhile, its Rolls-Royce Canada facility in Montreal will also introduce widebody engine overhaul services later this year, with a start date projected for the fourth quarter. As well as acknowledging capacity as being a driver behind the moves, Rolls-Royce says it also made the changes as a way of reducing the impact on customers handling in-service issues with the Trent 1000. This followed adjustments to its maintenance center (AMC) network of shops. U.S.-based MRO Standard Aero joined as an AMC for RB211 repairs at the beginning of 2018, followed by Delta Tech Ops becoming an AMC for the Trent 1000 and Trent XWB, which power the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 respectively.
MTU Maintenance has also invested heavily in ramping up capacity. Expansions have occurred at shops in Hannover, Germany, and in Zhuhai, where it overhauls CFM56 and V2500 engines, along with its Berlin facility where demand for mature engines such as the CF6 remains high. Its Vancouver facility, which has specialized in the V2500, is also due for relocation.
公司将Leap和GTF发动机也纳入了这些扩张计划中，这两类发动机预计在2021年至2022年期间开始预定的入厂维修，随后是入厂整修。与德国汉莎航空公司（Lufthansa Technik）成立的一家名为EME Aero的新合资企业计划于2019年末推出其首款GTF发动机，最终将达到每年制造450台发动机的产能。MTU还计划在塞尔维亚开设一个专门从事零件维修服务的厂房。
The company factored in Leap and GTF engines into these expansions, with scheduled shop visits expected to begin between 2021 and 2022, to be followed by restoration shop visits. A new Poland-based joint venture with Lufthansa Technik, operating as EME Aero, was scheduled to induct its first GTF engine in late 2019 and will eventually build up to a capacity of 450 engines per year. MTU also plans to open a site in Serbia focusing on parts-repair services.
在中东，主要的产能挑战与劳动力有关。这已经是Sanad Aerotech关注的焦点，该公司去年将其发动机、金融和能源部门合并，并从Turbine Services＆Solutions更名为Sanad Aerotech。
In the Middle East, the main capacity challenges have been workforce--related. This has been a focus for Sanad Aerotech, which was renamed from Turbine Services & Solutions last year, in a move combining its engine, finance and energy divisions.
The year 2019 saw the Mubadala-owned company sign several large-scale engine repair deals with OEMs, in moves set to add capacity demands at its Abu Dhabi-based facility. Starting in January, it will begin overhauls on the GEnx, with more than 300 engines expected over a 15-year period. It will also handle the Leap-1A and -1B, with the engines representing a new product platform in its portfolio. This will start in 2021, as a 10-year agreement, and will see more than 200 engines inducted over that time frame. With these new agreements in place, building a workforce to add capacity is one priority.
Sanad Aerotech的首席执行官曼苏尔·贾纳希（Mansoor Janahi）说：“有了这些新协议，我们不得不考虑增加人力，增加车间的产能。”“在数量上，我们希望在整个航空航天业务中增加大约400名员工，使我们在未来两年内达到550-600名员工，以提供这种‘额外的生产能力’”。
“With these new agreements, we’ve had to look at increasing our manpower and capacity in terms of production space,” says Sanad Aerotech’s CEO Mansoor Janahi. “In terms of numbers, we are looking to add around 400 employees across the aerospace business, taking us to between 550-600 employees over the next two years to deliver this” additional production capability.
虽然拥有更多资源的大公司已经找到了几种解决产能问题的方案，但较小的MRO提供商必须更加灵活、更有创造性地进行调整。不过，未来两到五年内，这些较小的精品式独立发动机维修提供商的作用也可能扩大。GT发动机服务公司（GT Engine Services）在英国伦敦斯坦斯特德机场（London Stansted Airport）附近的工厂提供专业维修服务，他们认为自己是打算将其发动机送入检修车间的航空运营商的备选服务商。
While larger companies boasting greater resources have sought several solutions to address capacity concerns, smaller MROs have had to be more agile and creative to adjust. Nevertheless, the roles of these smaller, boutique-style independent engine repair providers could also expand in the next two to five years. GT Engine Services, which offers specialist repair services from its facility close to London Stansted Airport in the UK, is one company that sees itself as an alternative option to operators sending their engine into an overhaul shop.
Greg Macleod, the managing director, says the company was previously a seasonal business but changed strategy a few years ago in order to spread its workload year-round while adding further repair capabilities. Given its work for airlines and lessors, this means the shop is routinely full, while the allocation of manpower and resources is a constant challenge, Macleod says. “This year we have just increased our workshop space by a third,” he says. “We also have a constant recruitment drive and a growing apprentice program.” Specifically, he identifies materials for the Rolls-Royce RB211 engine as being tricky to acquire.
Like many repair providers, Macleod foresees further alignment with OEMs, as companies like GT Engine Services position themselves to take on the overflow of maintenance work from capacity-squeezed counterparts. “There is a lot of scope to strengthen our relationships with the OEMs, which will benefit all involved,” he says. “This is nothing new, we are filling a void where the OEMs and overhaul shops struggle to fill.”
在大洋彼岸的美国，有另一家独立MRO提供商Global Engine Maintenance (GEM)为CFM56-3、CFM56-7B提供维修服务，并从今年开始为CFM56-5B发动机提供维修服务。与GT引擎服务公司一样，它全年都在接近或达到满负荷运转，主要是在单托架配置下工作。必要时，GEM将车间更改为双托架配置以增加产能。
Across the pond in the U.S., Global Engine Maintenance (GEM), another independent MRO, provides repair services for CFM56-3, CFM56-7B and starting this year, CFM56-5B engines. Like GT Engine Services, it is running either close to or at full capacity all year round, mostly working from a single bay configuration. When necessary, GEM changes the workspace to a double-bay configuration to add capacity.
At the facility, it sees a strong wave of inductions in the winter and spring months as aircraft operators gear up for the summer travel season. “In terms of engine repair volume, we are repairing almost as many -7B as we are -3C engines,” says Jamie Devin, the company’s director of business development says of the company’s output. “Components and life-limited parts (LLP) for the -3C engines are plentiful, with only a few exceptions. However, these parts and LLPs for -7Bs are slightly harder to procure generally because the operators want performance restorations built up to 10,000 cycles remaining.”
Devin says it has looked at other methods of adding capacity at its Miami, Florida, hangar and has identified one area where it can improve its output. “One way to increase capacity is to improve your throughput time—we’ve added a number of in-house capabilities that would otherwise be sent to outside vendors, thus saving time,” he says.
GEM, has also turned to technology to help its throughput time. “Our 3D scanner and high-speed grinder allow us to match grind high-pressure compressor (HPC) and high-pressure turbine (HPT) rotors in days rather than in weeks,” explains Devin. “The 3D scanner also aids in detail inspection. What would have taken hours to inspect using traditional methods can now be done in minutes,” he adds.
另一个承担额外产能的独立提供商是挪威航空公司，一个专注于发动机大修服务的CFM56专家。它在斯塔万格的车间每年也经常接近满负荷运转，首席业务官如尼•文斯特拉（Rune Veenstra）说。它通过引入更多的资源，包括增加容量所需的工具，提高了产能。文斯特拉告诉Inside MRO，一旦CFM56发动机系列在2023-24年间达到预期的入厂大修高峰，航空运输市场将转向这些发动机型号。
Another independent taking on extra capacity is Aero Norway, a CFM56 specialist focusing on engine overhaul service. Its shop in Stavanger also routinely runs close to full capacity annually, says Rune Veenstra, its chief business officer. It has increased capacity by bringing in more resources, including necessary tooling to grow volumes. Once the CFM56 engine family hits its expected shop visit peak between 2023-24, the cargo market will look to move over to these engine types, Veenstra tells Inside MRO.
这是James Pozzi在Inside MRO发表的文章。Inside MRO杂志研究商用飞机MRO领域的最新趋势和技术。每期月刊都提供了做出关键技术、业务和运营决策所需的信息。此外，订阅者每月还会收到一期《航空周刊与空间技术》（Aviation Week & Space Technology）杂志，该杂志是业内新兴技术分析和见解的主要来源。您可以点击此处查看有关Inside MRO更多消息。