飞机租赁业正与自身成功的后遗症作斗争

出租商已经存在很长时间了。这一概念在20世纪70年代开始在航空运输业受到关注。从那时起，真正的强者如AerCap、GECAS、Air Lease Corp（ALC）和Avolon逐渐浮现。他们的成功吸引了更多的投资者和资金进入该行业，大量的全球可用资本正在寻找看似安全的归属。拥有大量飞机组合的出租商数量在几年内翻了一番。

Lessors have been around for a long time. The concept began to gain traction in air transport in the 1970s. Since that time, true powerhouses such as AerCap, GECAS, Air Lease Corp. (ALC) and Avolon have emerged. Their success has attracted more investors and money to the industry, with an abundance of available global capital seeking seemingly secure homes. The number of lessors with large portfolios of aircraft has doubled in a few years.

出租商在2017年的高峰时期直接订购了约30%的波音订单，但此后数量有所下降。除了向原始设备制造商下订单外，出租商通常会购买大量在售飞机组合，并与航空公司进行售后回租交易，然后相互交易这些组合。

Lessors placed about 30% of direct Boeing orders at their peak in 2017, but the number has since declined. In addition to placing orders with the OEMs, lessors routinely buy large portfolios of aircraft in sale-and-leaseback deals with airlines, then trade those portfolios with each other.

出租商已被证明是空客和波音的一个有吸引力的销售渠道，与狮航（Lion Air）和靛蓝（IndiGo）等新兴低成本航空公司一起推动了增长。

Lessors have proven to be an attractive sales channel for Airbus and Boeing, driving growth alongside emerging low-cost carriers such as Lion Air and IndiGo.

对投资人来说，飞机似乎是非常有吸引力的资产。与许多其他资产不同，如果配售失败，它们可以在全球范围内转移。这种被感知到的吸引力吸引了资金，尽管并不总是聪明的资金。

For investors, aircraft seem to be really attractive assets. Unlike many other assets, they can be moved around worldwide if a placement proves unsuccessful. That perceived attractiveness has pulled in money, though not always smart money.

但租赁业正日益成为自身成功的牺牲品。越来越多的领导者表示，现在是调整的时候了。租赁概念是否走得太远了？

But the leasing sector is increasingly becoming the victim of its own success. A growing number of its leaders are saying it is time for an adjustment. Has the leasing concept gone too far?

有一些基本的数字，业界表示赞同：中银航空租赁公司（BOC Aviation）投资者关系部主管蒂莫西•罗斯（Timothy Ross）表示：“如果租赁份额低于30%，出租商就能赚大钱；高于40%就变得困难。”他说：“我们处于供过于求的状态，这是由于最近几年来许多新的出租商积极涌入市场。“十年前有6-8名出租商。现在这个数字是那时的两倍，”他补充道。

There are some basic numbers on which the industry agrees: “Lessors make good money if the leasing share is below 30%; it becomes difficult above 40%,” says Timothy Ross, BOC Aviation’s head of investor relations. “We are in an oversupply situation,” he says, due to many new lessors having aggressively entered the market over the last few years. “There were 6-8 lessors 10 years ago. Now there are twice that number,” he adds. 

AerCap首席执行官安格斯•凯利（Aengus Kelly）表示，过度曝光出租渠道，导致‘不称职者’涌入市场。“[飞机制造商]把产品给了不称职的出租商，”他辩称。他指出，缺乏经验的出租商往往不知道，即使是准备投入使用，例如按时订购内饰用品，也有错综复杂的情况。由于有太多出租商在争夺航空公司的生意，新的小型参与者通常会过早提供让步的价格，从而破坏了其他所有人的市场。

AerCap CEO Aengus Kelly says overexposure to the lessor channel has led to an influx of “incompetence” in the market. “[Aircraft manufacturers] have given the product to incompetent players,” he contends. Inexperienced lessors are often unaware of the intricacies of even preparing for entry into service, such as ordering interiors on time, he notes. With too many lessors competing for airline deals, the small new players will often offer bargain rates too soon and destroy the market for everyone else.

Avolon首席执行官多姆纳尔·斯莱特（Domhnal Slattery）表示：“航空公司已经获得了难以置信的诱人的售后回租生意。”当然，这是在波音737 MAX停飞之前。由于该机型暂时不在市场上销售，几乎不可能就任何类型的租赁交易达成一致，因为其恢复服务的时间仍不清楚。与此同时，拥有A320neo订单的出租商无法从停飞中得到多大好处，因为他们短期内可供出租的飞机寥寥无几（如果有的话），空客的生产延迟也无济于事。

 “Airlines have been getting unbelievably attractive sale-and-leaseback deals,” says Avolon CEO Domhnal Slattery. Of course, this was before the Boeing 737 MAX grounding. Since the aircraft is temporarily off the market, it is all but impossible to agree on any type of lease deals because its return-to-service timing is still unclear. At the same time, lessors with A320neo orders have been unable to benefit much from the grounding because they have few, if any, aircraft available to place in the short term—and Airbus production delays are not helping.

最近发生的新冠肺炎（COVID-19）疫情使情况变得更加复杂，许多出租商争先恐后地将亚太机队的剩余飞机提供给急需备用机的其他地区的客户，以填补MAX停飞造成的空缺。经济实力雄厚的出租商，如ALC或AerCap，有时准备允许航空公司客户暂时推迟支付租赁款，从而帮助他们。

The situation is made even more complex by the recent COVID-19 outbreak that has left many lessors scrambling to place surplus aircraft from Asia-Pacific fleets with customers in other regions desperate for backup capacity available to fill gaps created by the MAX grounding. Financially strong lessors such as ALC or AerCap are sometimes prepared to assist airline customers by allowing them to temporarily defer lease payments.

即使在平时，主要出租商更愿意只面对旗鼓相当的对手。“与成熟的对手竞争更好，”罗斯说。“经验不足的出租商往往会慌不择路，并首先让价。”但是，租赁合同中还有许多其他杠杆也很重要，回报条件和货币对冲只是其中两个，它们需要复杂的交易结构，而许多新的参与者根本无法适应这种交易结构。

Even in normal times. the major players would prefer to face only each other. “Competing against grown-ups is better,” Ross says. “Inexperienced lessors tend to panic quickly and talk about price first.” But there are many other levers in lease contracts that are important, too—return conditions and currency hedges being just two that require the complex deal structuring of which many new players are simply incapable.

这条消息是Bradley Perrett在Aviation Week & Space Technology发表文章的摘要。 欲了解这个行业是如何“被不称职者挽救”（反语）的，以及其他租赁方面的问题，请阅读整篇文章 (订阅内容)。