2020年MRO市场十大预测
2020年民航售后市场应关注的问题
What to watch for in the civil aviation aftermarket in 2020
1 | 并购：热点！热点！热点！M&A: Hot, Hot, Hot
并购将继续受到各方的热捧，包括原始设备制造商和其他非MRO的收购，以及私募股权的买卖。但是，由于容易的选择并不多，而且任何剩余的大型收购目标的估值都很高，因此预计很少会有大型收购。
Mergers and acquisitions will continue to be hot from all sides, including OEMs and other non-MROs buying, as well as private equity buying and selling. However, expect few large acquisitions because the easy pickings are gone, and valuations of any remaining sizable acquisition targets are high.
2 | 机器人技术 Robotics
机器人技术将真正开始在MRO领域起飞，以提高安全性和准确性，完成诸如飞机检查，油漆去除和无损检测之类的任务。
Robotics are going to start truly taking off within MRO for improving safety and accuracy with tasks such as aircraft inspections, paint removal
and nondestructive testing.
3 | 无人机检查 Drone Inspections
无人机检查将继续用于飞机检查。2020年会否成为监管机构批准无人机检查为独立程序的一年？
Drone trials will continue to proliferate for aircraft inspections. Could 2020 be the year regulators approve drone inspections as a stand-alone procedure?
4 | MAX影响 MAX Impact
随着737 MAX停飞时间的延长和容量压力的增大，CFM56-3/7B对波音737 Classics/NGs的售后市场将产生影响，甚至可能对空客A320的V2500/CFM56-5造成影响，因为运营商在中短期内继续推迟维修。
With a prolonged 737 MAX grounding and growing pressure on capacity, there will be an impact on the aftermarket for the CFM56-3/7B on Boeing 737 Classics/NGs—and possibly even the V2500/CFM56-5 on Airbus A320s—as operators continue to defer maintenance in the short-to-mid-term.
5 | 零件短缺 Parts Shortages
下一代发动机（如PW1000G-JM）将需要在预定升级的基础上进行维护，而由于交付延迟，较老的飞机将保持继续服役状态，因此在2020年，流行发动机类型（尤其是CFM56s、V2500s和CF6s）可用材料的短缺将更加严重。这将推动价格上涨，也将导致更多的维修发展开发。
Next-gen engines such as the PW1000G-JM will need maintenance on top of scheduled upgrades, and older aircraft are staying online due to delivery delays, so the shortage of used serviceable material for popular engine types—especially CFM56s, V2500s and CF6s—will be even worse in 2020. This will drive prices higher and also lead to more repair development.
6 | 东南亚 Southeast Asia
东南亚的MRO设施将继续增长，在印度尼西亚巴淡岛、泰国U-Tapao和吉隆坡等地新建或扩建设施。
MRO facility growth in Southeast Asia will continue, with new or expanded facilities in places like Batam, Indonesia; U-Tapao, Thailand; and Kuala Lumpur.
7 | 拉丁扩张 Latin Expansion
随着航空公司获得合作伙伴并扩大内部维护服务，投资正在进行中。例如，巴西的GOL在11月底推出了一个新的业务部门，GOL Aerotech。巴西蓝色航空（Azul Airlines）将于2020年开设机库以进行内部维护。达美航空计划投资LATAM，而曼联则与阿维安卡（Avianca）航空一样。普拉特·惠特尼集团公司12月11日在贝洛奥里藏特开设了一家发动机检修中心。
Investment is underway as airlines gain partners and expand in-house maintenance services. For example, Brazil’s GOL launched a new business unit in late November, GOL Aerotech. Azul Airlines will open a hangar in 2020 to bring maintenance in-house. Delta plans to invest in LATAM, while United is doing the same with Avianca. Pratt & Whitney opened an engine overhaul center in Belo Horizonte on Dec. 11.
8 | 大数据 Big Data
为了真正加速大数据分析，公司需要开始共享更积极的成果，以证明该领域的价值，并说明为什么公司应该考虑共享数据。
To really accelerate big data analytics, companies need to start sharing more positive outcomes to demonstrate the value of the field and show why companies should consider sharing data.
9 | 进度放缓 Slow Dance
如果政府开发援助缩减，监管机构所涉及的任何事项的审批时间都将延长，联邦航空局认证项目也可能陷入僵局。
Expect longer approval times for anything a regulator touches and a potential logjam for FAA certification projects if ODA is scaled back.
10 | '让我们好好相处' 'Let’s Just Get Along'
如果联邦航空局执行美国国会的监管改革要求，对外国维修站的审批可能会爆发冲突。
Strife over foreign repair station approvals could erupt if the FAA carries out the U.S. Congress’ mandate for revamped oversight.
