2020年MRO区域预测

English Text by Lee Shay Ann December 30, 2019
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Aviation Week Network
Credit: Aviation Week Network

2020: The MRO Outlook by Region

鉴于2019年新飞机和发动机计划存在问题，2020年的预测部分取决于何时能解决这些问题，这也包括波音737 MAX的问题。随着原始设备制造商（OEM）处理技术问题，旧飞机仍在继续服役，因此，根据航空周刊2020年商业机队及MRO预测，2020年退役的飞机数量仅为877架。这意味着，对于诸如CFM56和V2500之类的流行发动机而言，紧张的供应链对于可继续使用的二手零部件来说仍然是个问题。

Given the problems with new aircraft and engine programs in 2019, the forecast for 2020 hinges partly on when those issues, including that of the Boeing 737 MAX, are resolved. As OEMs deal with technical problems, older aircraft are continuing to fly, so the number of aircraft being     retired in 2020 is projected to be only 877, according to the Aviation Week 2020 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast. This means the strained supply chain will mostly still be problematic for used serviceable material for popular engine types such as the CFM56 and V2500.

与此同时，如果波音在今年初恢复MAX的交接，那么2020年的交付量将创历史新高。但无论如何，预计空客A320neos都将成为领跑机型，这意味着CFM Leap 1B发动机将引领发动机交付。该预测预计，2743架飞机将投入使用，比下一年增加近500架，届时将有更多的飞机因新机交接而退役。

At the same time, 2020 should see a record number of deliveries if Boeing resumes handovers of the MAX early in the year. But expect Airbus A320neos to lead regardless—which means CFM Leap 1B engines will lead the engine deliveries. The forecast projects that 2,743 aircraft will enter service, almost 500 more than the following year, when more aircraft will retire as those deliveries take place.

从10年预测期内的地区机队增长率来看，印度以10.6%领先，其次是中东，为8.5%，拉丁美洲为5.7%。

Looking at regional fleet growth rates over the 10-year forecast period, India leads with 10.6%, followed by the Middle East with 8.5% and Latin America with 5.7%.

然而，北美在2020年仍然是MRO需求的领头羊，其次是西欧和亚太地区（不包括中国和印度）。

However, North America still leads MRO demand in 2020, followed by Western Europe and the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China and India).

北美 NORTH AMERICA - 25%

  • 未来10年，北美的商业机队预计将保持相对稳定，从2020年的近9385架飞机到2029年的约9200架。
  • Over the next 10 years, the commercial fleet in North America is expected to remain relatively constant, from nearly 9,385 aircraft in 2020 to about 9,200 by 2029.
  •  北美将在2020年产生最大的MRO需求，MRO需求将达到230亿美元。
  • North America will generate the largest MRO demand in 2020, with $23 billion in MRO requirements.
  • 预计到2020年，北美将有2375多台发动机进行大修。
  • More than 2,375 engine overhauls are anticipated in North America in 2020.

西欧 WESTERN EUROPE - 24%

  • 2020年西欧交付量排前五的机型为：波音737 MAX 8（29%）、空客A320neo（21%）、空客A321neo（9%）、空客A350-900（8%）和波音787-9（7%）。
  • The top five aircraft family deliveries in Western Europe in 2020 are: the Boeing 737 MAX 8 (29%), Airbus A320neo (21%), Airbus A321neo (9%), Airbus A350-900 (8%) and Boeing 787-9 (7%).
  • 与世界其他地区相比，西欧自身在2020年的MRO需求将排名第二，达到190亿美元。
  • Western Europe by itself will rank second in MRO demand in 2020 compared to other world regions, reaching $19 billion.
  • 预计到2020年西欧将有超过1460台发动机进行大修。
  • More than 1,460 engine overhauls are anticipated in Western Europe in 2020.

亚太地区（不包括中国和印度）ASIA-PACIFIC (excluding China and India) - 18%

  • 预计到2020年，该地区将交付近425架新型商用飞机。
  • Nearly 425 new commercial aircraft are expected to be delivered in the region in 2020.
  • 亚太地区的MRO需求预计将从2020年的180亿美元增长到2029年的265亿美元，复合年增长率为4.3%。
  • MRO demand in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to grow from $18 billion in 2020 to $26.5 billion in 2029, a CAGR of 4.3%.
  • 2020年，发动机维护将占所有MRO需求的44%，其次是线路维护（22%）和部件维护（21%）。
  • Engine maintenance will capture a 44% share of all MRO demand, followed by line maintenance (22%) and components (21%) in 2020.

中国 CHINA - 9%

  • 未来10年，中国商用机队将从2020年的4315架增长到2029年的5970架，复合年增长率为3.7%。
  • Over the next 10 years, the Chinese commercial fleet will grow from 4,315 aircraft in 2020 to 5,970 aircraft by 2029, a CAGR of 3.7%.
  • 中国将在2020年交付415架新飞机。
  • China will see 415 new aircraft deliveries in 2020.
  • 以定值美元计算，中国10年的MRO需求为1096亿美元。
  • The 10-year MRO demand for China is $109.6 billion in constant dollars.

中东 MIDDLE EAST - 9%

  • 在未来十年中，中东的机队预计将增加近一倍，从2020年的1,760架增加到2029年的3,670架，复合年增长率为8.5％。
  • Over the next 10 years, fleets in the Middle East are expected to nearly double, growing from 1,760 aircraft in 2020 to 3,670 aircraft in 2029, a CAGR of 8.5%.
  • 中东的MRO需求预计将翻倍，到2029年可能达到165亿美元。
  • MRO demand in the Middle East is projected to double and could reach $16.5 billion by 2029.
  • 发动机MRO需求将是该地区增长最快的，占MRO总开支的46%。
  • Engine MRO requirements will have the fastest growth in the region, representing 46% of total spending.

拉丁美洲 LATIN AMERICA - 5%

  • 在10年的预测期内，拉美在役飞机机队将从2020年的2440架增长到2029年的近4025架，复合年增长率为5.7%。
  • During the 10-year forecast period, the aircraft in-service fleet in Latin America will grow from 2,440 aircraft in 2020 to nearly 4,025 aircraft by 2029, with a CAGR of 5.7%.
  • 拉美的MRO需求预计将从2020年的53亿美元增加到2029年的82亿美元，复合年增长率为4.9%。
  • MRO demand in Latin America is expected to increase from $5.3 billion in 2020 to $8.2 billion in 2029, for a CAGR of 4.9%.
  • 2020年，发动机（42%）、部件（28%）和线路维护（20%）将在拉美市场上占据最大份额。
  • Engines (42%), components (28%) and line maintenance (20%) will comprise the largest shares of the MRO market in Latin America in 2020.

东欧 EASTERN EUROPE - 5%

  • 东欧的现役商业机队预计将从2020年的2075架增加到2029年的近2770架，在预测期内的复合年增长率为3.2%。
  • The active commercial fleet in Eastern Europe is expected to increase from 2,075 aircraft in 2020 to nearly 2,770 aircraft by 2029, a CAGR of 3.2% during the forecast period.
  • 在东欧新交付的飞机中，波音737 MAX 8所占份额最大，占总数的36%，其次是苏霍伊超级客机和空客A321neo，分别占12%和8%。
  • The Boeing 737 MAX 8 holds the largest share of new aircraft deliveries in Eastern Europe, with 36% of the total, followed by the Sukhoi Superjet and Airbus A321neo with 12% and 8%, respectively.
  • 东欧地区的MRO需求将从2020年的50亿美元增长到2029年的60亿美元，复合年增长率为1.8%。
  • The MRO demand for the Eastern Europe region will grow from $5 billion in 2020 to $6 billion in 2029, a CAGR of 1.8%.

非洲 AFRICA - 3%

  • 未来十年，非洲的现役商业机队预计将从2020年的1560架飞机减少到2029年的1365架，年复合增长率为-1.5%。
  • Over the next decade, the active commercial fleet in Africa is expected to decrease from 1,560 aircraft in 2020 to 1,365 aircraft by 2029, for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -1.5%.
  • 预计到2020年，非洲将收到70架新的商用飞机交付。
  • Africa is projected to receive 70 new commercial aircraft deliveries in 2020.
  • 预计非洲地区的MRO需求将从2020年的36亿美元减少到2029年的34亿美元，复合年增长率为-0.6%。
  • The MRO demand for the African region is expected to decrease from $3.6 billion in 2020 to $3.4 billion in 2029, a CAGR of -0.6%.

印度 INDIA - 2%

  • 未来10年，印度商业机队预计将从2020的800架增长到2029年的近1975架，显示出最高的地区复合年增长率，达到10.6%。
  • Over the next 10 years, the Indian commercial fleet is forecast to grow from 800 aircraft in 2020 to nearly 1,975 aircraft by 2029, exhibiting the highest regional CAGR, 10.6%.
  • 2020年，印度交付量排前三的机型将是：空客A320neo（45%）、ATR（18%）和波音737 MAX 8（14%）。
  • The top three aircraft deliveries in India for 2020 will be: Airbus A320neo (45%), ATR (18%) and Boeing 737 MAX 8 (14%).
  • 印度地区的MRO需求预计将从2020年的20亿美元增长到2029年的43亿美元，复合年增长率为8.2%。
  • MRO demand for the Indian region is expected to grow from $2.0 billion in 2020 to $4.3 billion in 2029, a CAGR of 8.2%.

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